Study On The Impact Of Population Structure Change On Industrial Investment

Investment plays an important role in the economic development of our country,is not only promote the economic growth mode from extensive to intensive,from quantity to quality the important strength,is also a economic structure optimization,an important force in the economic system performance,but also solve the main contradiction in our society,people the growing demand for a better life and not balance the contradiction between the inadequate development of the key.People are both producers and consumers.Demographic structure affects both the labor supply in production and the demand.People are both producers and consumers.Demographic structure affects both the labor supply in production and the demand structure in commodity market.Labor supply and market demand are important factors affecting investment,so the change of population structure has an important impact on investment and investment structure.At present,China's population structure has undergone great changes due to the acceleration of population aging and the decrease of fertility willingness.The production mode and output characteristics of the three industries are quite different,resulting in different demands for labor.Therefore,the impact of the same demographic change on different industries and investment in different industries is also different.In view of this,in order to find out the impact of demographic changes on investment in different industries,this paper USES a simple econometric model and the SYS--GMM estimation method to empirically analyze the relationship between China's demographic changes and investment in the three industries.The empirical results not only verify that the impact of demographic changes on investment in different industries is different,but also describe the extent of this impact in terms of quantity.At present,our country's economy is facing an ageing population and serious decline in investment efficiency,to overcome these problems,improve the efficiency of the economic system,economic structure transformation and upgrading is a must,as the population structure change is relatively slow,in order to realize the transformation and upgrading and healthy economic development,must be from the perspective of investment as soon as possible.In view of the important role of investment,this paper makes an in-depth study of the three industrial investments under the background of China's demographic change,and puts forward corresponding Suggestions and countermeasures.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper draws the first conclusion: the change of China's population age structure has a significant impact on the investment structure.In chapter 4,with the help of the general production theory in chapter 3--through the transformation of Douglas' production function,the function and relationship between capital and labor in social production are theoretically and intuitively analyzed.To verify this relationship,the article put the investment structure of our country during 1995-2015(total investment of the secondary industry and tertiary industry the ratio of the total amount of investment)is as explained variable,with the aging population bring-up ratio as the main explanatory variables,through the regression analysis and analysis of error correction,from the perspective of empirical analysis and verified the relationship between population structure and investment structure.In addition,this chapter also focuses on the evolution of the investment structure and the evolution of China's investment structure,and with the help of statistical data on the industry and inter-industry fixed asset investment status analysis,from a statistical perspective to describe the changes in China's industrial investment.(2)The article in chapter 6,chapter 7 and chapter 8,is the core part of this article,this part of the empirical analysis of the theoretical basis of capital movement from chapter 3,based on the theoretical analysis of the process,it is concluded that the accumulation of capital and effective labor output,paid to labor in the share of the output,labor is part of the savings,and adjacent period related to the effective ratio of the amount of labor.This theoretically explains the relationship between labor and capital,and also explains the close relationship between population structure and investment.In order to verify the relationship between population structure and industrial investment,the three chapters adopt the contracted econometric model and use the SYS--GMM estimation method to carry out empirical analysis on relevant panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2014.The results show that the change of population age structure in China has a significant impact on the investment in the primary industry and the tertiary industry,but not on the investment in the secondary industry.Finally,the main innovation point of this article is: one is the research content was closely related to the age of population structure change and economic development requirements,to define the research object in the industry investment level,or change the known partial macro(such as the study of population structure on economic growth),or partial microscopic(such as the study of population structure change on the impact of securities investment,etc.)of the research train of thought,make the attention of the existing research literature scope extends to medium level.Second,it changes people's established understanding of the impact of population structure on investment--the elderly population dependency ratio is positively correlated with investment,while the young population dependency ratio is negatively correlated with investment.On the macro level,this understanding may be correct,but specific to a certain industry in a certain industry,the conclusions are different.However,the research in this paper also has some shortcomings.For example,the data may not be very perfect due to the statistical caliber and availability.In addition,the paper does not have a thorough analysis of the micro-mechanism of the impact of demographic changes on investment in various industries within the industry,nor does it establish the corresponding mathematical derivation model.