The Study Of The Impact Of Population Structure On China’s Economic Growth

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has developed rapidly and has become the second largest economy in the world.But after 2012,China’s economic growth rate began to slow down.By the end of 2018,the economic growth rate had dropped to 6.7%.In terms of population,China has a large population and is the only country that strictly implements the family planning policy.Due to strict policy implementation and long duration,the age structure of China’s population has undergone rapid changes.The birth rate continues to decline,the problem of population aging is prominent,and the "demographic dividend" released by the working-age population in the past is gradually disappearing.In the context of the changing age structure of the population,this article studies the impact of the population growth rate and age structure change on China’s economic growth,which will help formulate population and economic policies based on China’s national conditions and the current level of economic development,and promote the sustainable development of population and economy.This article uses inter-provincial panel data from 1990 to 2017 to empirically study the impact of population growth and changes in population age structure on economic growth.Use mixed OLS,fixed effects,random effects and other estimation methods to perform regression,and select the best estimation result according to the test results.Research shows:(1)The population growth rate lagging for 20 years has a positive impact on the economic growth of the provinces.When the population growth rate lagging for 20 years to increase by 1%,the economic growth rate will increase by 0.172%.Therefore,the population growth rate has a certain lag effect on economic growth.This article further studies the impact of the birth rate lagging 20 years on economic growth,and finds that it has a greater impact on economic growth than the population growth rate.(2)The age proportion of the working population has a positive impact on economic growth,with its proportion increasing by 1%,promoting a 1.721%increase in per capita GDP.The proportion of the 25-54-year-old population among the working-age population also has a positive impact on economic growth,with its proportion increasing by 1%,promoting a per capita GDP growth of 0.754%.This paper also measures the contribution of changes in population age structure to economic growth.From 1990 to 2017,changes in the population age structure contributed 10.61%of the total economic growth.(3)Judging from the indicators of the proportion of the population over 65 in the total population and the dependency ratio of the elderly population,the deepening of the population aging will have an adverse impact on China’s economic growth.When the proportion of the population over 65 in the total population increases by 1%,the real GDP per capita will drop by 0.185%;When the dependency ratio of the elderly population increases by 1%,the real GDP per capita drops by 0.549%.In addition,the regression results show that the stock of physical capital and the level of human capital can significantly promote China’s economic growth.Increasing capital element input and education input can both promote China’s economic growth.(4)The birth rate 20 years ago has a positive effect on economic growth 20 years later.The proportion of state-owned enterprises in the three northeastern provinces is large,there are many industrial workers,and the family planning policy is the strictest in the country.Therefore,the birth rate of the three northeastern provinces is much lower than the national average,which has become one of the main reasons for the cliff-like decline in economic growth in the three northeastern provinces in recent years.At the same time,the economic downturn has accelerated the loss of highly educated and high-quality talents and reduced the talent pool in the three northeastern provinces.The net population migration rate including household registration changes promotes economic growth in the three northeastern provinces at a significant level of 1%,and the net population migration rate without household registration changes promotes economic growth in the region at a significant level of 5%,and the former has a greater impact on economic growth than the latter.This is because most of the population accompanying household registration changes are highly educated and high-quality people,which can create more human capital.This part of the population exodus greatly reduces the talent pool of the three northeastern provinces.Main innovations of this article:(1)Based on the Solow model,this paper analyzes the impact of human capital and changes in the internal age structure of workers on economic growth by adding years of education and working age structure index.(2)The sample data is subdivided from the national scope into inter-provincial panel data to study the impact of the population growth rate and birth rate lagging 20 years on the per capita GDP growth rate.Taking into account the heterogeneity between regions,the sample data is further divided into three major regions in the east,central and west.(3)The working age population is subdivided into three different working age groups:15-24,25-54,and 55-64.From the changes in the internal structure of the working-age population,study its effect on economic growth.In addition,this paper also estimates the contribution rate of the proportion of the working-age population and its internal structural changes to the economic growth of various provinces in China.(4)The proportion of state-owned enterprises in the three northeastern provinces is relatively large.As a heavy industry base,their economic development has always been in a leading position in the country.However,since the reform and opening up,the economic development of the three northeastern provinces has been relatively slow.The family planning policies of the three provinces were strictly enforced in the past,the birth rate was much lower than the national average,and the overall decline in the proportion of working-age population was higher than the national average.The degree of aging is higher than the national aging level,and the problem of population loss is more serious,so this article takes the three northeastern provinces as a special case to analyze the impact of the population structure and population migration of the three northeastern provinces on the regional economy.