The Impact Of The Change Of Population Production Preference On The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure

At present,our country has entered the second half of the mid-stage of industrialization.The traditional industrial development model with high investment,high consumption and high pollution is more and more difficult to sustain because of the diminishing law of marginal productivity and the limitation of resources and environment.In the process of global economic integration,China's industrial development faces such prominent problems as the unreasonable ratio of the thrice industries,the poor capability of independent innovation,and the lock-up of the low-end value chain.How to jump out of a low-level development equilibrium,optimization and upgrading the industrial structure?In addition to existing theoretical changes such as the pulling of changes in demand,the promotion of technological progress,the diffusion of leading industries and the promotion of replacement,are there any more determinants of endogenousness and humanism?Examining and answering these questions have important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,promoting supply-side structural reforms,building a modernized economic system,and promoting the quality,efficiency and dynamism of economic development.This paper discusses the fundamental outlet of industrial upgrading from the microscopic perspective of family population quality preference and establishes the logical mechanism between the change of population production preference and the upgrading of industrial structure in order to reveal the human determinants of the upgrading of industrial structure.First of all,on the basis of studying a large number of theoretical literatures,the theoretical relationship between population development and industrial upgrading is analyzed.The quantitative preference and quality preference of family population production are a pair of inversely related relations,which have the characteristics of mutual substitution.When the fertility rate declines,families increase their investment in human capital,promoting the improvement of the quality of the labor force and speed up the technological progress,continuously improve the efficiency of factor deployment and push the industrial structure toward higher levels of coordination and coordination.On the contrary,the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has further increased the demand for highly qualified labor force and has stimulated the family to lower the fertility rate and raise the children's human capital level.Secondly,based on the time-series data and panel data of provinces in cities and municipalities,we use the measurement method to study the intrinsic influence mechanism between the change of population preference in China and the evolution of industrial structure.Finally,combining the general laws of population and industrial development in both developed and developing countries,we predict the prospects for China's population growth and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the coming period based on theoretical analysis and empirical findings:a stable population growth and a moderate increase in human capital continued to enhance the level of agricultural modernization increased dramatically,the rapid development of high-end processing and manufacturing industry,the rapid growth of modern service industry,energy-saving environmental protection industry has gradually become a pillar industry.At the same time,the paper suggests four policy suggestions:stabilizing population fertility policy,optimizing education and training mode,guiding and encouraging technological innovation,and improving human capital development mechanism.The main innovations of this paper lie in:First,from a theoretical perspective,it provides a new perspective and a new path for the study of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.From the microscopic view of production quality preference of family population,we discuss the fundamental way of industrial upgrading,and think that the decrease of population and improvement of quality can profoundly influence the important variables such as labor demand structure,technological structure,factor structure and industrial organization,These variables are optimized and promoted,and the industrial structure is continuously advanced and coordinated.This has made up for the lack of existing research on this issue and enriched the theory of population and industrial development.Second,from a practical perspective,it provides a policy basis for promoting the scientific development of the population itself and accelerating the upgrading of the industrial structure.This paper first analyzes the determinants and transformation features of the population production,and then studies the determinants and internal motivation of the industrial structure upgrading.On this basis,a theoretical and empirical analysis of the two-way relationships between population development and industrial upgrading is made,which proves that both promote each other and each other cause and effect.At the same time,some countermeasures and suggestions are pointed out.This undoubtedly has an important reference value for formulating the relevant policies on population and industrial development.