Impact Of High Temperature On Human Health And Energy Consumption In China Southern Cities Under Global Warming

Under the global warming and rapid urbanization,the hot events in urban area will become more severe.At the same time,the high concentration of urban population and the expansion of energy consumption may led to a further increase in the risk of human health and energy security in the cities under hot events.Based on the daily maximum temperature data from 1961-2015,15 global climate models daily data from 1986-2100,the power consumption data,the clinical data and social economic data,studies on the evolution of hot events and their impacts on urban power consumption and human health are carried out.The main results are summarized as follows:(1)Based on socio-economic,power consumption,outpatient data,and meteorological data,threshold value for power consumption hot events,pathogenic hot events and lethal hot events were derived based on the influence of on the city's electricity consumption and human health.(2)From 1961 to 2015,the number of hot days in most parts of China increased,the duration increased,the intensity increased,and the area affected by hot events continued to expand.In the future RCP2.6,4.5 and 8.5 scenarios,future hot events will be further strengthened,mainly in the extension of the duration,the increase in the intensity of events,the expansion of the impact area and the increase in the number of hot days.Under the RCP2.6 scenario,the high-temperature events during the 2020-2040(near-term)show a significant increase,which is basically the same regardless of the growth or absolute value between RCP4.5 and 8.5,while at 2041-2070(mid-term)and 2071-2100(Long-term)the hot events remain basically unchanged,even slightly decreased.In RCP4.5 scenario,hot events still showed an increasing trend in the middle and late term,but the growth rate began to slow down,faster than the RCP2.6 scenario,but slower than the RCP8.5 scenario.In RCP8.5 scenario,the hot events still maintained rapid growth in the mid-to-long term.Although the hot events are all enhanced,the rate of increase is not exactly the same.Overall,the increase in power consumption hot event is less than the hot event of illness,and the pathogenic event is less than the lethal event.As the global temperature rises,the more extreme events may increase much faster.(3)From 1986 to 2015,the number of people exposed to high temperatures showed a significant upward trend.The average annual growth rate of power consumption event was less than the pathogenicity event which below the lethal event.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the distribution of population exposure at hot events is basically the same.From 1986 to 2015,the total GDP exposed to high temperatures also showed a significant upward trend,which is basically the same as the population exposure.The average annual growth rate of power consumption event is less than the pathogenicity event and less than the lethal event.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the spatial distribution of GDP exposure is basically the same as that of population exposure,but it is more concentrated in coastal areas.By the end of the 21st century,under the RCP2.6 scenario,the number of people exposed to the hot events will increase by 1.6[1.1,2.8]times.Under the RCP4.5 scenario,the number will increase by 2.5[1.5,4.5]times.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,the number will increase by 4.4[2.3,8.0]times.The growth rate of lethal hot event is faster than it of pathogenic hot event,and much faster than it of power consumption events.The number of GDP will increase by 3.5[2.1,7.2]times under RCP2.6 scenario,by 4.6[2.7,8.3]times under RCP4.5 scenario and by 6.2[4.3,10.0]times under RCP8.5 scenario.Like the exposure of population,the growth rate of lethal hot event is the fastest.(4)By the end of 2100,the urban power consumption under the RCP2.6 scenario will reach the current status of 7.2[3.9,21.6]times.The city's electricity consumption under the RCP4.5 scenario will reach the current status of 9.8[5.6,32.1]times.The city's power consumption under the RCP8.5 scenario will reach 15.4[9.3,52,5]times the current status.Under the same economic path way,the RCP2.6 scenario is the least power consuming in summer.Under the same climate scenario,considering the economic scale,the RCP2.6+SSP1 path is relatively low.(5)By the end of 2100,the number of patients under the RCP2.6 scenario will reach 2.0[0.6,2.9].The number of patients in the RCP4.5 scenario will reach 3.2[1.2,4.6]times the current status.The number of patients under the RCP8.5 scenario will reach the current status of 6.5[2.6,9.2]times.Considering the economic and population scale,RCP2.6+SSP1 is the better path for the same situation.By the end of 2100,the death toll under the RCP2.6 scenario will reach 2.4[0.5,4.0]times the current status.The death toll under the RCP4.5 scenario will reach 4.0[1.1,7.1]times the current status.The number of deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario will reach the current status of 9.5[4.4,14.2]times.Considering the economic and population scale,the RCP2.6+SSP1 is for better path selection under the same circumstances.(6)For the impact of urban energy consumption,the consumption increases by 3.3[1.8,4.1]times over the current situation under the scenario of warming 1.5?,and it increases by 8.9[3,12.4]times under the scenario of warming 2.0°,and under the scenario of 4.0? it increased by 10.2 times[2.4,18.3].For urban human health,the number of patients increases 0.5 times[0.4,0.6]under the warming 1.5?,and increases the number of patients by 1.7 times[1.5,1.8]in 2.0? warming scenario.The number increased by 3.5 times[3.1,4.1]in 4.0? warming scenario.Under the scenario of warming up 2.0?,it increased by 0.7[0.6,0.8]from 1.5?.The number of patients suffering from 2.0? will increase significantly.In terms of controlling the number of patients,temperature control 1.5? is superior to temperature control 2.0?.The number of deaths increased by 0.6[0.6,0.7]times in the context of warming 1.5? compared to the current situation,2.2[2,2.8]times in the case of warming 2.0?,and 5.3[4.7,6.2]times in the case of a warming of 4.0?.Warming 2.0?increases 1.0[0.9,1.0]over warming 1.5?C.Similarly,when the temperature rises to 0.5?,the number of deaths from 1.5 to 2.0? will increase dramatically from the control of the death toll.In terms of temperature control 1.5? is superior to temperature control 2.0?.