| Water resources are the basic resources to sustain life and economic development in all countries and regions on earth.In developing countries,especially for the poor,household water availability,water-related health issues,and the availability and availability of water for production are all important.Because of these problems,poor areas in developing countries tend to be more vulnerable to short-term shocks and long-term changes brought about by climate change.In addition,increased population density,increased competition for resources,environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity have increased the risk of water shortages for millions of people.In order to develop strategies to adapt to these global changes a reliable and consistent assessment of vulnerability is needed as a first step.This needs to be integrated on the right scale,with a combination of related factors.Scientific and reasonable water resources assessment is often regarded as a prerequisite for the formulation of water resources management policies.However,water resources are dynamic systems,which are neither linear nor direct,and are influenced by interpersonal relationship activities and environmental interactions.In addition to the above-mentioned factors,China also has its own inherent development problems.Affected by the development model of urban-rural division,the country adopted the development strategy of taking the city as the center in the distribution and construction of water resources,but neglected the construction and development of rural water resources,which led to the serious lag in the construction of rural water resources.Therefore,the low efficiency of water use,climate change,environmental degradation of water resources and the contradiction of water use have become one of the obstacles to China's sustainable development.Scientific and reasonable evaluation methods are often regarded as the core of water resource management policy making.But at present,on the one hand,water resource is a dynamic system,which is neither linear nor direct,and is influenced by interpersonal relationship activities and environmental interaction.Current water resources evaluation methods focus too much on the measurement of water use efficiency and ignore the impact of social adaptability and ecological environment on water resources.On the other hand,existing researches mainly focus on the research on the driving factors of water resources in rural areas,ignoring the interaction between urban and rural areas,thus restricting the accuracy and diversity of water resources management policies.The core problem of this paper is how to solve the problem of unbalanced development of urban and rural water resources.The research mainly focuses on three aspects: first,what is the development status of urban water resources and rural water resources? Second,whatis the imbalance between urban and rural water resources? Thirdly,how to formulate scientific and reasonable water resources management policies to solve the problem of unbalanced development of urban and rural water resources? Based on this,by careful combing to the existing research literature,summarized the research results and research methods about water resources evaluation,based on the concept and theoretical framework of water poverty theory and a detailed interpretation of the theoretical basis,we construct the water under the theory of water poverty index measurement model,based on this,we determined the city water and rural poor evaluation index system.This paper first calculates the water poverty degree of urban and rural areas in all cities in northwest China from 2000 to 2017,and comprehensively evaluates the real situation of urban and rural water resources system in northwest China from five dimensions of resources,facilities,capacity,use and environment.Secondly,the author tries to introduce the perspective of rural-urban segmentation into the analysis framework of water poverty in order to better understand the imbalance of urban and rural water resources development in northwest China.Finally,the quantitative analysis method is introduced to study the temporal simulation evolution and spatial correlation degree of the imbalance between urban and rural water resources development.The conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the results of urban-rural water poverty measurement in northwest China show that there are great differences between urban and rural water poverty.The overall score of urban water poverty was between 0.118 and 0.443,indicating that the development status of urban water resources system in northwest China was significantly improved.The rural water poverty score was between 0.146 and 0.352,and the overall score showed a slow upward trend,indicating that the development status of urban water resources system in northwest China was slowly improved.Polarization of urban water resources polarization more serious than rural water resources by using the method of minimum variance of urban water poverty and rural poverty to identify the driving factor,urban water resources and the driving factors of rural water resources exist obvious spatial agglomeration phenomenon,use to affect the city,such as the dimension and the environmental dimension of water poverty and rural poverty driven factors,shows the spatial distribution of water resources is not only related to the geographical space,and water use efficiency,the ecological environment has the close relation.Secondly,the calculation results of the imbalance relationship between urban and rural water poverty in northwest China show that the genetic algorithm is used to estimate model parameters and analyze the symbiotic types of complex systems of urban and rural waterpoverty.Northwest city-the evolution of rural water resources system type is mainly divided into three types: collaborative type,competition type and rural conflict.There is a significant imbalance in the intensity of urban-rural cooperation.Among the 52 prefectures and cities in the study area,36 prefectures and cities have obvious competition and contradiction,and the other 16 prefectures and cities are synergetic regions in terms of parameters.However,5 of them are at a low level of synergetic stage.This indicates that the overall situation of unbalanced relationship between urban water resources and rural water resources in northwest China is not optimistic.Nearly 70 percent of the region is still in a stage of mutually restricting or isolated development.Thirdly,the lagging measurement results of urban-rural water poverty in northwest China show that: in 2000,the relationship between urban water resources and rural water resources in northwest China was dominated by negative decoupling of expansion,weak decoupling and recession decoupling.In 2017,the relationship between urban water resources and rural water resources in northwest China was dominated by negative decoupling,weak decoupling and strong negative decoupling.The imbalance between urban and rural water resources in northwest China presents a worsening trend.At the same time,according to the method of econometric model,ARMA model is creatively introduced to predict the imbalance of urban and rural water poverty in northwest China in the next five years.In 2021,the imbalance of urban and rural water poverty in northwest China will turn a corner in 2021,and there will be a great improvement.Fourthly,the coordination calculation results of urban and rural water poverty in northwest China show that the coordination value of urban and rural water poverty shows an obvious downward trend from 2000 to 2017,indicating that the imbalance of urban and rural water resources is significantly intensified,which further verifies the conclusions of chapter5 and chapter 6.At the same time,the imbalance in the spatial distribution clearly shows a certain law,showing a spatial agglomeration.This indicates that spatial factors have an important influence on the imbalance of urban and rural water resources.From the perspective of unbalanced spatial distribution,the spatial agglomeration of coordinated development of urban and rural water poverty in northwest China first increased and then decreased,and the heterogeneity first decreased and then increased.It is concluded that the spatial concentration area of water resources in urban and rural areas in northwest China,high area and low area have a high level of significance.Through the understanding of spatial difference,it is helpful to narrow the difference between urban and rural water resources in northwest China.Finally,based on the above analysis results,this paper further discusses the feasible policy principles and measures of urban and rural water resources system in northwest China and puts forward specific optimization Suggestions.Based on the calculation results of water poverty in urban and rural areas in northwest China,the priority intervention order of water poverty drivers in specific regions is proposed.Based on the calculation result of the unbalance of urban and rural water poverty in the northwest region,this article from the management way,the further legislation,property rights,the integration of urban and rural areas,investment,compensation and water resources protection consciousness that seven aspects put forward the following Suggestions:(1)adhere to the administrative centralization and integration of urban and rural management,clear administrative department at a lower level of power and responsibility;(2)improve the laws and regulations of water resources management to provide solid guarantee for water resources protection;(3)promote the property rights reform of small irrigation and water conservancy facilities and improve the water resources compensation system;(4)to establish public awareness of water resources protection and fundamentally promote the participation of the whole people in water resources protection. |
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