Research On The Rationality Of Urban Expressway Project Construction Duration

With the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid development of cities,traffic congestion is widespread in most large and medium-sized cities in China.As the urban expressway can provide urban traffic services with large-flow,long-distance and fast-speed,it has become an effective way to alleviate or solve urban traffic congestion.However,the whole process of urban expressway construction will cause certain adverse impact on urban traffic and citizen travel.Hence,considering how to shorten urban expressway’s construction duration while ensuring the construction quality,and make it play the construction function as soon as possible is especially important for government authorities and project construction managers.The urban expressway construction duration not only affects the construction cost and quality,but also affects the urban traffic and the daily travel of the citizens,and is highly concerned by the society.Due to the characteristics of large investment,wide coverage,large traffic interference,many influencing factors and complicated construction time sequence,the management of the construction duration of urban expressway project is difficult,which further leads to the difficulty in construction duration target determination and construction duration management.At present,China has not yet issued the standard construction duration quota of urban expressway,resulting in a lack of standard and basis for the reasonable determination of construction duration.There is certain randomness and subjectivity in construction duration target establishment and management,so the construction duration is either too long or unscientifically compressed.Therefore,considering how to determine the urban expressway construction duration scientifically and reasonably is imminent.It is urgent to conduct research on the risk identification,project duration prediction and reasonable evaluation of the construction duration of urban expressway in China.Based on the whole life cycle theory of project construction,this dissertation uses the qualitative and quantitative analysis methods such as system analysis,regression analysis and empirical analysis to scientifically identify the influencing factors ofurban expressway construction duration and constructs the prediction model and rationality evaluation model of construction duration of urban expressway.The content is as follows: First of all,the research analyzes the construction duration contributory factors through literature research method,and then presents the list of potential factors influencing urban expressway’s construction duration based on the hierarchical holographic model(HHM)theory.By use of questionnaire survey,combing the expert’s evaluation of the risk validity of the construction duration,using expert authority coefficient method,the research filters and rates the influencing factors,eliminates the non-critical factors,and obtains the factors set affecting construction duration.Secondly,the research comprehensively analyses the construction characteristics and construction conditions of urban expressway.Based on the risk validity of the factors,a prediction model of urban expressway construction duration is constructed through entropy weight method and triangular fuzzy number method.On this foundation,according to the climate characteristics and construction environment of Xiamen,drawing on the experience of construction duration quota of municipal engineering in Guangdong,linear regression method is used to set up a prediction model for construction duration of Xiamen urban expressway.Thirdly,the research uses literature research method and expert authority coefficient method as tools to screen the rationality evaluation index of urban expressway construction duration,and then builds the rationality evaluation model via structure entropy weight method.Finally,the research makes an empirical analysis of the Xiamen urban expressway construction project,and demonstrates that the urban expressway construction duration prediction model and the rationality evaluation model constructed in this research are effective.The research also puts forward several reasonable construction duration control strategies for urban expressway project.The innovations of this study are mainly embodied in the following three aspects:(1)This dissertation explores the construction duration of urban expressway project based on the whole process of project construction,which broadens the theoretical research scope of project duration and deepens the research connotation of urban expressway construction duration.(2)Based on the risk validity theory of constructionduration and the expert evidence theory,the dissertation constructs the prediction model and rationality evaluation model of the urban expressway construction duration,and makes empirical test,which enriches the theoretical research of project duration management.(3)In the study of construction duration of urban expressway,the particularity of urban expressway project and the importance of expert engineering experience and similar engineering experience are highlighted.The influencing factors of urban expressway construction duration are identified comprehensively and objectively from both inside and outside the system.These provide a theoretical basis for risk identification,scientific prediction and reasonable evaluation of the construction duration of urban expressway in China,and provide strong empirical evidence for the project duration management.The research may provide a good theoretical guidance and practical basis for the reasonable determination and evaluation of the construction duration of China ’ s urban expressway projects,which has certain theoretical significance and strong application value.