The Assessment Of Spatial Spillover Effect Of Energy Economics Indices Induced By The Topological Structure Of Power Grid And The Application

The specification of spatial weight matrix draws more and more attentions with the extension of spatial econometricat home and abroad.Spatial weight matrixreflect directly the spatial spillover effect of space units,the study of itsspecification method isof great value to the development and extension of spatial econometric.The paper presented a new specification method of spatial weight matrix based on the operating sequence of Chinese power lines above500 kV that form the topological structure of power grid as a representative of infrastructure.Through the application of the specified spatial weight matrixin different spatial econometric models in different areas of energy economics,the changing mechanism of spatial spillover effect among spatial units is discovered and the operational policy recommendations are proposed according to the economic implications of the specific questions.The main features and conclusions are as follows:(1)The effectto the regional energy intensity caused bythe topological structure of Chinese power grid is taken as an example to reveal the changing mechanism of the spatial correlations induced by the topological structure of infrastructure.The spatial weight matrix is specified based on the topological structure consisting ofinter-provincial high voltage power linesthat operated at different time during the period 1998-2014 in China,the specification transformeveryentry of spatial weight matrix to a constant elementaccording to the dynamic topological structure of infrastructure.A more robust result is obtained using the SDM panel model through replacing the original endogenous explanatory variable with lag one.The finding is that: increasing the proportion of power consumption and factor structure can reduce regional energy intensity when spatial correlationscaused bythe topological structure of power grid were considered,“pollution heaven effect” from foreign trade was found;the operating of 12 high voltage power lines will change the spatial homogeneity of inter-provincial regional energy intensity,the effects of the proportion of power consumption,industrial structure and R&D level will be strengthened,the effects of per capita FDI stock,ownership structure,factor structure and urbanization rate will be weakened;the regression results using the specified spatial weight matrix based on the topological structure of power grid can reflect the major information that arespatial correlations of regional energy intensity caused by the spatial adjacency relationship.The spatial spillover effectof regional energy intensity could be changed by adjusting the topological structure of inter-provincial power grid,and promote the policy objective to realize.(2)The changing mechanism of spatial correlations caused by inter-provincial high voltage power lines is illustrated with spatial correlations of carbon dioxide emission index among provinces.The spatial weight matrix is specified according to the operating sequence of inter-provincial high voltage power lines in China during the period 1998-2014,and the dynamics spatial Dubin panel model is adopted to overcome the ignored bias error induced by the ignored explanatory variable in the static one.The finding is that: the interconnection of inter-provincial high voltage power grid makes carbon dioxide emission index to show spatial homogeneity;the action that reduce provincial energy intensity is the key influence to reduce carbon dioxide emission indices,resulted from the spatial spillover effects caused by inter-provincial topological structure of power grid and the actions that increase the proportion of power consumption and adjust industrial structure are also important measure.Strengthening the interconnection of inter-provincial high voltage power grid canpromote spatial correlations among provincial carbon emissions indices.(3)The paper reflects the inter-provincial imbalance of energy product/consumption by constructing energy outflow demand index;the spatial weight matrix elements specified by the topological structure of power grid configure the spatial spillover path.Dynamic spatial Dubin model with the nested spatial weight matrix by the products of the two is used to analyze the spatial spillover effect.The findings are: Energy rebound effects of long & short-term will reduce by 18.794%,17.867% respectively for the reduction of energy intensity by 1 ton of standard coal equivalent per 10,000 Yuan;will reduce by 9.360%,8.898% respectively for the increasing of electricity proportion by 1%.The two effects will increase by 10.343%,9.833% respectively for increasing of energy consumption by 1 ton of standard coal equivalent per capita,and will increase by 2.928%,2.784% respectively for increasing of urbanization rate by 1%.The topological structure of power grid configure the spatial spillover paths,and energy outflow demand index affects the quantitative relations between influence factors and energy rebound effect.The presented nested spatial weight matrix reveals the joint influences resulted from regional imbalance and the topological structure.It is found that the measures of improving energy efficiency and increasing electricity proportion are essential to control energy consumption,and the increasing of energy consumption per capita and urbanization rate following economic growth will aggravate energy rebound effect.The method of spatial weight matrix specification presented in this paper not only realizes the innovation of methodused in the spatial correlation’s mechanism analysis of energy economics indices,but also provides a quantitative measurement method for the policy makers to quantify the impact of inter-provincial energy infrastructure interconnection on energy conservation and emission reduction policies.