A Research On The Evolution Of Industrial Emerging City Development Process Based On System Simulation Theory

Emerging cities or districts are the relatively independent urban space units planned and established by the government to meet the needs of urban and industrial development.In recent years,China has successively established a number of state-level new districts such as Liangjiang New District,Nansha New District,Xixian New District,Gui'an New District and Xiong'an New District.These new districts are important carriers for the development of China's economic,expansion of opening up to the outside world,and innovation of science and technology.At the same time,these new districts are also the demonstration zones for China's institutional reform and urban governance.So they have important strategic significance.For a long time,China has built a large number of industrial parks,economic development zones,high-tech parks and other industrial new areas.These emerging cities or districts have many advantages,such as rapid industrial development,flexible policy mechanism;complete supporting infrastructure,etc.,which have made great contributions to China's economic development and strongly promoted the social progress.However,the old development modes of new districts are often unable to achieve sustainable development.After several years,the emerging cities or districts have encountered a series of problems such as low use ratio of land,environmental pollution,separation of occupation and housing,and dilemma of upgrading the industry.In addition,the new urbanization puts forward higher requirements for emerging cities(districts),namely,“integration of production towns,people-oriented”.How to meet this requirement and complete the development of emerging cities(districts)has become a great problem for city managers.Considering aforementioned difficulties,based on summarizing the predecessors' researches,this study carried out a comprehensive in-depth research on the development mechanism,system goals,system structure and evolution characteristics of industrial emerging cities by introducing system evolution theory,Wuli-Shili-Renli system theory.It provides a reference analysis framework and theoretical model for the development of industrial emerging city.Additionally,system dynamics,Petri net and multi-agent are used to establish a combined simulation model.The research provides not only a reference for the development of similar regional development models,but also quantitative analysis tools and experimental platforms for the analysis of various industrial emerging city projects.The main contents of this study are as follows:The first part is the external law research on the industrial emerging city development.It mainly analyzes and summarizes the historical law of the evolution of the Chinese industrial emerging city with historical analysis and case study methods.From the dimensions of social and economic development,natural resource endowment and land use pattern,this paper analyzes the development characteristics of industrial emerging cities in different periods and types,and summarizes the development experiences of Chinese industrial emerging cities.The second part is the research on the development process system of the industrial emerging city.Through the systematic analysis of the industrial emerging city development process,the analytical framework and theoretical model are constructed.Firstly,it analyzes the goals that the emerging city development needs to achieve under the new-type urbanization.Then it analyzes the system evolution process and summarizes the evolution law of the industrial emerging city.Applying the "Wulil-Shili-Renli" methodology,the material system,process system and organizational system in the emerging city are analyzed separately to clarify the structure of the industrial emerging city system.Finally,the logical relationship of the three member systems is established,the theoretical model of the new emerging city development is constructed,and the framework of the combined simulation system is constructed.The third part is the construction of the combination simulation model of the industrial emerging city development.Firstly,the system dynamics is used to construct the ?Wuli?simulation model of the industrial emerging city to simulate the macro operation of the industrial new city.Then the workflow analysis technology was applied to construct the ?Shili? simulation model of the industrial emerging city to simulate the development process of the industrial emerging city.Then the M-Agent technology is used to construct the ?Renli? simulation model of the industrial emerging city to simulate the organizational behavior of the stakeholders of the industrial emerging city.Finally,the combined simulation theory is applied to combine the "Wuli","Shili" and "Renli" models to form a combined simulation model,and the simulation and analysis of the emerging city development process in four different scenarios are carried out.This research believes that the development of Chinese industrial emerging city must first conform to the external law of its system operation,that is,the industrial emerging city is the product of the times.The external economic and social environment have a restrictive effect on the development of the industrial emerging city.The effective cooperation between the government and the market is the key to the healthy development of the industrial emerging city,and the coordinated development of industry and city is the driving force for sustainable development.Secondly,the development of industrial emerging cities must conform to the inherent law of its development,that is,the scientific use of the interaction among the "Wuli","Shili" and "Renli" systems could constantly promote the evolution of industrial emerging cities from low-level to high-level.Under the new-type urbanization the construction of industrial emerging cities should be guided by the development goals,and the sustainable development of industrial emerging cities should be realized through scientific planning and decision-making,reasonable planning and implementation,mutual promotion of industrial development and urban construction.On this basis,this research further applies a variety of modeling methods,builds a simulation model,and carries out a scenario simulation of the industrial emerging city development process,which can reflect the results of different development models.This confirms the internal and external laws that the development of industrial emerging cities should follow.