Study On The Influence Model Of Electricity Resilience To Other Sectors' Supply Costs

Great importance has always been attached to the study on power system security.With the rapid economic development and continuous social progress,power demand is increasing,the power grid is getting more enormous,and the power system becomes more and more complex,all of which have raised the requirments on power system security.Meanwhile,the acceleration of globalization has made the prediction more difficult for the interal and external environment of the power system.The traditional research paradigms and management methods,which are oritented towards higher efficiency,persue economic benefits,and take optimization as the means,have been insufficient in terms of ensuring the safety and sustainable operation of the power system.The frequency interruptions in power supply,emission reduction policy,and environmental regulations have brought a lot of pressure to bear on the power industry.So it is necessary for the researchers to leap over the traditional management paradigms and to seek new research and management methods.Under this circumstance,to manage the power system from resilience perspective emerges.From the power system security perspective,this study presents the importance of increasing power system resilience,establishes the evaluation model of the power system resilience and the power supply cost diffusion model.This study provides an important basis for the joint power system security management between the government regulation departments and electric power companies.Firstly,this study analyzes the connotation and characteristics of the resilience of the power system,and discusses the source of theory about related studies.To be more specific,the paper distinguishes the concepts closely related to “resilience” in academic research—“brittleness” and “adaptability”.On this basis,this study defines the concept of the resilience of the power system.Then the study states the source of the power system resilience theory,and analyzes the characteristics of the power system resilience and the possible features of the systems in lack of resilience,which build a foundation for the further research.Secondly,the study proposes an evaluation model of the power system resilience.Based on the feathers aforementioned,the model comprehensively considers two aspects of system integrity and energy efficiency,then extracts six key factors that affect the resilience of the power system to conduct in-depth analysis.Based on the analysis,a mathematical system modeling method is used to construct the resilience evaluation model of power system.For empirical analysis,major countries of electricity production and consumption are selected,and emphasis is put on the comparison with China's power system resilience.Thirdly,since the changes in the resilience of the power system would inevitably cause changes in the power supply costs,the cost changes in the power sector would theoretically spread to other sectors through electricity tariff.This study establishes the power supply cost diffusion model,based on the improved input-output table in which the power sector is regarded as a separate sector,to analyze how the cost changes in the power sector spread to other sectors and how the cost changes in the power sector affect other industries and sectors associated.With the prediction of resilience and supply cost changes of China's power system in 2030,an empirical anlaysis is conducted of China's power system resilience changes and its influence to other sectors.Finally,this study uses scenario analysis to simulate the changing trend of resilience and supply costs in China's power system from 2015 to 2030.Based on relevant plans of the Chinese government and relevant indicators of international developed countries,this study sets three scenarios: low,basic,and high,which simulate the resilience of the power system and the changing trend of supply costs with electricity supply structure adjustment,technological advancement and electricity supply structure adjustment.Based on the detailed analysis and discussion of the simulation results,this study proposes policy recommendations for improving the resilience of China's power system.