Study On Driving Factors And Mitigation Policies Of CO₂ Emissions From China's International Seaborne Freight Transport

With the issue of global warming,climate change is considered as an unprecedented global challenge.Cabon dioxide has been confirmed to be the most significant contributor.As the world's largest CO2 emitter,China ratified the Paris Agreement and made its commitment to control the average temperature,which imposed the pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction in various industries.The international maritime transportation of freight is the backbone of global trade and facilitates transport among nations.The marine logistics is widely used by the international trade.Recent years,the international maritime transportation of freight in China has experienced considerable growth.Consequently,the dramatic growth of international seaborne trading activities produce a large amount of CO2 emissions and has environmental impacts,both nationally and internationally.The shipping industry is securing its position as an important sector to identify mitigation measures by the International Maritime Organization(IMO).The IMO has adopted a long-term mitigation strategy in global shipping sector.Under such circumstance,with the pressure of carbon mitigation commitment and the sustainability of water transportation,it is thus urgent for China to search for appropriate mitigation policies for the China-oriented international seaborne sector and respond positively to the decarbonization of global shipping.This dissertation focuses on the issue of CO2 emissions in China-oriented international seaborne trade.The aggregated CO2 emissions are characterized to figure out the features during the study period.The future trends of of CO2 emissions from China-oriented international seaborne trading operations are predicted under different scenarios.The driving factors influencing the changes of the CO2 emissions are deeply identified.The decoupling analysis are investigated not only the dynamic changes of the decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions in the maritime sector and economic growth but also the factors affecting the decoupling relationship.The mitigation pathways are provided for the maritime transporation industry.The research work is summarized as follows:(1)The measurement of CO2 emissions in China-oriented international seaborne trade.Based on the related figure of transport volume of China's import and export,a bottom-up model is used to estimate CO2 emissions based on the activities of vessels.Considering their various energy intensities,vessels are classified into different categories according to their commodities.Then the aggregate CO2 emissions and the CO2 emissions from various types of vessels are characterized to figure out the features during the study period.The results demonstrate that:The CO2 emissions from China-oriented international seaborne trade have witnessed a significant increase between 1999 and 2018.The short term evolution trend exhibits four different stages.Bulk carriers and the containerships are the largest two emitters.The significant variations of energy intensities between different types of vessels attach great importances to the CO2 emissions.(2)The study on the future trend of CO2 emissions from China-oriented international seaborne trade.Based on the IP AT model and IMO maritime variable theory,the trend prediction model of China-oriented international seaborne trade is established.Four alternative scenarios of predictions of CO2 emissions in China-oriented international seaborne trade are designed based on different assumptions.The results demonstrate that:The aggregated CO2 emissions show the growth trend in the future under the foundation BAU-trend scenario.The adjusted business-as-usual AD1 and AD2 show the slower increase in the CO2 emissions.When scenario swifts,the mitigation of the transport turnover volume,technology improvement and clean energy usage contribute to 10%,35%and 3%of the overall CO2 emissions mitigation,respectively.(3)The study on the driving factors of CO2 emissions from China-oriented international seaborne trade and its decoupling relationship between economic growth.The decomposition analysis adopting Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method is introduced to investigate the key influencing factors that initiated an impact on the CO2 emission changes.The decomposition index is expected to be more specialized due to the examination of the effect of the energy intensity of vessels,the commodity trade structure effect,the maritime transportation intensity effect,economic activities and population.The decoupling index is introduced to quantitatively examine the decoupling relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions.The factors affecting the decoupling relationship are analyzed according to the LMDI results.The results demonstrated that:The factors of per capita GDP and population size are proved to be the positive contributors all the time.The per capita GDP was served as the major force.Energy intensity of vessels shows the most powerful driving factor for the future CO2 emissions reduction in maritime transportation sector,which is also the most important inhibitor in the future.The decoupling states over the study period have experienced four decoupling stages,with a distinct tendency towards weak decoupling.The energy intensity indicator and commodity structure indicator play key roles in promoting the decoupling relationships.(4)The study on the mitigation pathway of CO2 emissions from China-oriented international seaborne trade.Regarding to the 2050 mitigation target of IMO,different measures are given the various inputs.The backcasting approach is introduced to construct two representative mitigation pathways of CO2 emissions from China-oriented international seaborne trade.Some suggestions are provided based on the analysis results.The results demonstrate that:The mitigation target can't be achieved depending on the single method.It is necessary to provide policy packages.Two pathways considering the combination of technology,clean fuel and operational measures are proved to achieve the mitigation target."Zero-carbon technology " pathway mainly depends on the alternative fuels while the"Ultra-slow operation" pathway mainly depends on the speed reduction.According to the actual conditions of China,our analysis suggests that combination of policies such as regulations for MRV system and the establishment of market-based mechanism,etc.should be proposed.This study enriches and improves the research results of China-oriented international seaborne trade carbon emissions issues,which has very important practical significance for achieving low-carbon sustainable development of the maritime industry.