Study On The Investment Decision Making Analysis On Wellhead Gas Distributed Generation Under Uncertainty

In the background of rapid development of natural gas,wide application of distributed technology and perplex investment environment,this paper proposed an innovative generation system and analyzed the investment decision making under uncertainty.It aimed to provide technical and economic support for the feasible application of wellhead natural gas distributed generation system,and guide the investors to make the optimal investment.The main research work includes following: First,the analysis of characteristics of wellhead natural gas distributed generation was conducted;Second,the influence factors of wellhead generation investment decision were explored based on qualitative description and the structural equation model;Third,the decision-making models were established under the condition that the price of electricity and gas are uncertain and the subsidy policy is uncertain,respectively.It addressed the selection between centralized and distributed wellhead gas generation under the uncertainty of price,and the optimal time for investment;Four,the investment risk of distributed wellhead gas generation was assessed to provide the risk information for investors.The conclusions are given as below: the investment decision of wellhead natural gas generation was mainly influenced by economic,policy and technical factors.The gas and electricity price in economic uncertainty and the tax subsidies in political uncertainty were key factors to affect the investment decision;Based on the investment model under the price uncertainty,it demonstrated the economic feasibility of wellhead distributed power generation.The fluctuation of electricity deeply affected the net income of wellhead gas distributed power generation rather than natural gas change;Based on the investment model under the policy uncertainty,it found that there was a critical value of investment.The rise of this value followed by the increase of the implementation probability of policy and the decrease of subsidy policy;According to the investment risk assessment of natural gas wellhead distributed system,the results showed that the economic risk,market risk and policy risk were the main factors,investors should focus on the prevention of above aspects.It also demonstrated that the assessment model can be applied to the investment risk assessment of wellhead natural gas generation system.