The Study On The Assessments And Solutions Of The Investment Risks During The Decision-making Phase For A New Built Propane Dehydrogenation Project Of Company A

Company A is planning to invest in a project of PDH and downstream derivative products to expand its business chain vertically so as to acquire new profit growth.However,similar projects are embodied with large amount funds,long construction duration,multiple technical routes and miscellaneous management interface,meanwhile Company A didn’t have any large-scale petrochemical project construction experience and practical operation experience.As the focus of scholars’ research on enterprise financial risk project investment risk is one of the risks that Company A’s decision-makers pay most attention to.Therefore,how to identify the risk factors in the decision-making phase of the newly built PDH project,how to conduct scientific evaluation for those risk factors and sub-factors,and what measures can be taken to respond the risks are the major problems that Company A’ decision-makers face.Through the study of a large number of domestic and overseas references,this paper illustrates the investment risk factors and sub-factors in the decision-making phase of general petrochemical projects.And based on the experience and data from a few existing owners and engineering companies that involved in PDH projects,this paper states six major investment risk factors including political policy risk,investment opportunity risk,regional location risk,products program risk,survey and design risk,engineering bidding risk and dozes of risksub-factors through Delphi method to identify the investment risks of this project in the decision-making phase.This paper also defines the weight of risk factors and sub-factors through analytic hierarchy process.This paper also makes assessments for each investment risk factor and sub-factor based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,indicating that the investment risk in decisionmaking phase of this project is ranging from general to moderately high.And for those risk factors with huge impacts such as product program risk,investment timing risk and political& policy risks,it is necessary to take good measures including choosing diversifying raw material supply channels,positively responding national industry promote policy,grasping time difference opportunity of project construction and startup timing comparing other similar projects.to manage and control,and finially verified during the project execution.This paper will provide a certain reference to other domestic companies for the investment risks management in the decision-making phase of the new-built PDH projects,and is expected to provide any inspirations for investment risks management in the decision-making phase of other similar petrochemical projects.