Research On Safety Risk Assessment System And Evaluation Technology Of“21^st Century Maritime Silk Road”

The 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative is a new cooperation mechanism put forward by our country in the new era.It is of great significance to promote the development of global economy and trade,and to enhance political cooperation.However,involving a wide range of sea areas and a large number of countries,the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road has characteristics of long investment period and wide coverage.The natural environment and humanity environment are with great uncertainty and faced with fatal security challenges.Therefore,this paper carries out innovative exploration and systematic research on major strategic issues and leading technologies such as natural environment and humanity environment risk assessment,strategic pivot and port base optimization decision.The indicator system of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road safety risk assessment is constructed,and the risk classification standard,which synchronously considers the intensity and frequency of natural elements,is put forward.Several modeling techniques are also developed based on qualitative knowledge extraction and incomplete sample evaluation.This paper carries out research on evaluation modeling under conditions of incomplete information and uncertain knowledge,and conducts innovative research and exploration on feature extraction and quantitative expression for the expert's experience of qualitative language description.The paper defines semantic measures and constructs a corresponding semantic cloud measure function.The methods of artificial intelligence such as Bayesian network and cloud model theory are introduced into the risk assessment field,innovatively developing cloud-Bayesian network model and hesitation cloud model.The main work and research results of this paper are as follows.1)This paper systematically analyses the natural environment and the humanity environment characteristics,as well as puts forward the semantic measure definition and constructs a semantic cloud measure function;then the quantificational clustering analysis is constructed on the connectivity situation of humanity environment and non-traditional security issues based on K-means clustering algorithm.2)The definition and classification of the safety risk of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road is put forward,and the risk factors of natural environment and humanity environment are analyzed and the risk identification is carried out.Then the concept model of safety risk of 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road is constructed.3)This paper constructs a risk index system for the natural environment and humanity environment of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road,and provides the detailed definition of each index.The risk mechanism of each index is studied,and the data sources of the index are compiled.4)The paper carries out the quantificational risk assessment on the natural environment of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road,and constructs a risk classification method for natural elements with strength and frequency;Furthermore,this paper introduce different climate scenarios,and discusses the impacts of climate change on the natural environment of the Maritime Silk Road's safety risk.5)Based on the incomplete information and uncertain knowledge,this paper put forward the theory of hesitant cloud model and cloud-Bayesian network theory,in order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of humanity environment in 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road under the condition of incomplete information and uncertain knowledge.6)Based on the opportunities and challenges faced by the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road,the decision making modeling of ports along the Maritime Silk Road is launched.The idea of DEA model is introduced,and the super efficiency interval DEA model is selected to realize the optimization of ports along the Maritime Silk Road.