| Under the current institutional background of China,President Xi Jinping proposed supply-side structural reform to solve the problem that hinders the high-quality development of China’s economy.Driven by supply-side structural reform,local governments have acted actively,strictly implemented relevant policies,and exceeded their targets ahead of schedule.At present,the remarkable effect of overcapacity reduction is mainly due to the administrative intervention of the government rather than spontaneous regulation of the market.Especially,local governments as the executor of policies play a crucial role in the current overcapacity reduction.It can be seen that local governments have played an important role in the formation of this round of overcapacity and overcapacity reduction.In the context of deepening supply-side structural reform and high-quality economic development,this thesis constructs a theoretical analysis framework on local government behavior and overcapacity by sorting out existing studies on relevant areas,and makes theoretical analysis on relevant issues.DSBM model was used to calculate the dynamic capacity utilization ratio of sub-industries in China’s industrial sector,industrial sectors in various regions and steel industry.Using tobit model,quantitative measurement was made on the degree of excess capacity affected by various factors from the government,industry,enterprises and market levels.The PVAR model is used to select relevant indicators from the aspects of local government’s political behavior,economic behavior,social behavior and environmental supervision,and analyze the dynamic impact of local government’s behavior on the formation of overcapacity.Using the game theory method,this thesis constructs the evolutionary game model between the central government and local governments and between local governments,and explores the influence of local government’s behavior on the implementation of the policy of reducing overcapacity.By using the breakpoint analysis method,this thesis takes the steel industry as an example to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy of reducing overcapacity in China’s steel industry.Combined with the change of capacity utilization rate,the thesis analyzes the effect of reducing excess capacity in iron and steel industry from space and time characteristics,and verifies the relevant conclusions.Research indicates that:(1)On the whole,the government is the main factor affecting overcapacity,which is negatively correlated with the change of capacity utilization.The market has a great influence on excess capacity,which is positively correlated with the utilization rate of excess capacity.The industry level and the enterprise level have less influence on excess capacity,among which the industry is positively correlated with the change of capacity utilization rate,while the enterprise level is negatively correlated with the change of capacity utilization rate.From the perspective of the various indicators of the government,the contribution rate of economic growth has the highest impact on overcapacity among the governments,which indicates that under the current assessment system,the government considers economic growth as the first priority.For industries with strong economic driving capacity,the government will have a strong desire to invest,even at the cost of repeated over-investment,resulting in overcapacity.(2)According to GMM moment estimation results,GDP contribution rate,proportion of state-owned enterprises and employment contribution rate are negatively correlated with capacity utilization rate,while environmental supervision degree is positively correlated with capacity utilization rate.According to the impulse response study on long-term dynamic relationship,the GDP contribution rate has a long-term negative impact on the formation of overcapacity,and the impact is strong.The short-term impact effect of state-owned enterprises increased,but the long-term impact effect gradually decreased.The impact of employment contribution rate on overcapacity in the future is not obvious and can be ignored.Although the positive effect of environmental regulation on overcapacity is low in the short term,the long-term impact effect is gradually increasing.According to variance decomposition results,in the role of local government actions in the formation of overcapacity,the impact effect of GDP contribution rate is obvious,and the largest contribution rate is 57.2%,which is a negative effect.The degree of environmental supervision was next,and the impact effect was more obvious(13.6%).The proportion of state-owned enterprises has a certain impact effect,which is negative.However,the impact of employment contribution rate is not obvious.(3)In the game of local government without constraint mechanism,the best strategy of local government is not to carry out the policy.In the game situation of local government under the reward and punishment mechanism,only when the central government’s incentive intensity or punishment degree is large enough,the best choice of local government is to implement the policy,while in other conditions,the best choice of local government is the opposite of implementing the policy.(4)The break point analysis shows that the policy to reduce overcapacity in China’s iron and steel industry was effective after 2013,while the policy effect was not significant from 2006 to 2013.In terms of the effect of reducing overcapacity in various regions,over 90%of the regions in 2015 and 2016 had a remarkable effect,but most of the regions had a poor effect in other times. |
