From The Ice Age Prediction To The Global Warming Hypothesis

From 1960s to 1970s,there was a shift in the estimations about the trend of future climate from the cometh of a new ice age to a global warming.This transformation occurred not only in the media,but also in scientific fields,which indicated accurately the changes of agendas on climate change science.This research focuses on the'transformation from ice age prediction to the global warming prediction in1960-70s',and try to answer the question on'how the transformation on the agenda of climate change research changed in this period",and thus give a detailed picture on the process of establishment of the predominant position of carbon dioxide climate science.For this objective,this research plans to take the following steps.Firstly,based on the mass communication of climatic risk in 1970 and focused on media reports,by comparing with scientific texts,the scientists'information source,main arguments and related social agendas of ice age predictions are confirmed,and then it is discovered that ice age predictions were widely paid attention to with political agenda of food crisis in early 1970s.Scientists turned from global cooling and ice age prediction to the global change of climatic patterns,in order to answer food crisis related questions.With food politics'agenda shift from the Seeking for Causes to the Seeking for Problems-Solving,food technologies substituted climate change to become more important scientific issue in food problem.Meanwhile the predictions on global cooling was declined in late 1970s due to lack of predicting ability,and was substituted by news report of global warming.Secondly,causes for the rise and fall of ice age prediction from the internal logic of science.The most important scientific source of ice age prediction is Milankovitch Hypothesis,analysis on whose progress in 1960s-1970s indicates that,firstly,precise verification on the Hypothesis took place in 1976,but the ice age predictions happened in early 1970s,when they were barely accepted by scientific community.Secondly,as a climatic prediction,the Hypothesis shows uncertainties in both data analysis and the theory itself,and is unable to provide the accuracy that short-term prediction requires.Thirdly,ice age prediction emerged because of progress in astronomical theories on climate by paleoclimatologists and geologists refreshed knowledge on the pattern of the glacial-interglacial transitions.Finally,outside pressure on ice age prediction came mainly from demands of society for short time scale of prediction of climate.Ice age prediction declined with the verification on short-term climatic prediction,and made way for global warming prediciton.Some paleoclimatologists have accepted CO₂ as new research focus since middle 1970s and limited ice age prediction within scope of natural climate change.Thirdly,the promotion of CO₂ research is examined from the aspect of the rising of physical climatology and numerical climate model?the General Circulation models?.The climate model used for CO₂ sensitivity research was originated from numerical weather prediction,which in turn was originated from combination of Bergen school weather thoughts and electronic computer.The primary purpose of global atmospheric research program produced by American policy on scientific diplomacy was to extend forecasting ability of numerical weather prediction,the feasibility of which was greatly compromised by Edward Lorenz's proposing of'Butterfly Effect'.With the termination of this first stage aim,the Global Atmosphere Research Program started turning to climatic prediction based on climatic numerical model with ultimate aim to predict and control climate.Also due to Lorenz's chaos theory and uncertainties due to the not well understanding physical mechanism,predictability of climate remained controversy till late 1970s.These controversies and uncertainties made CO₂ sensitivity research limited in heuristic experiment without prediction purpose.But involvement of American government in the end of 1979 with a report focused on whether CO₂ numerical modal research is reliable or not finally confirmed the reliability of the sensibility study on CO₂ as climatic prediction.Fourthly,the mechanism of agenda shifting was looked upon by investigating the changes of agenda for climate science within World Climate Organization.From1953-1980,it undergoned the following progress:·1953-1961:from climatology to climatic change or climatic fluctuation;·1969-1972:from climatic fluctuation to'climate and the environment';·1973-1976:from'climate and the environment'to'human influence onclimate';·1977-1980:from'human influence on climate'to the climate effect ofCO₂The United Nations Conference on the human environment and later UN environment program fund dominated agenda's change since 1969.UN set the agenda of climate science by funding large programs of meteorology and climatology.Some scientists objected to certain extent and from their own considerations against scientific agenda's priority change due to outside pressure but these objections basically didn't work.Fifthly,ideas of climate change in China within the same period are investigated.Zhu Kezhen published his comprehensive research on climate change in Chinese history in early 1970s,when unusual climate and ice age prediction just diffused into China.His research was used against ice age prediction.He used such expression like“historically weather was fluctuating without a steady direction”against global warming discussions abroad in 1960s,meanwhile,avoided issues closely related with climatic determinism like'Climate and Society','Climate and Humanity',which may lead to trouble in an environment where ideology were strictly controlled.He also abandoned environment issues in his climate change research though once being pioneer on environmental protection in China.After his death and with change of diplomatic policy and political environment,recognitions on climate change started to more closely follow UN's scientific agenda and get close to a frame of global climate risk.Based on the above research it is concluded that the question of why agenda for climate science greatly shifted between 1960s and 1970s cannot be answered only from aspect of scientific progress.The outside reason for this shift,which is a political one,is the agenda setting from international environmental politics.The fund for big science programs is the main mechanism of the shift.Agenda shift in China directly reflected the global influence of international environmental politics.It is proved that politics can and in fact has changed the content and direction of climate research.