Development Of Built-Up Area And Its Impacts On The Agricultural Land And Groundwater Level Of Peshawar City District

This thesis examines the historical trends in spatial growth of Peshawar City District and its impacts on the farmland and groundwater of the study area and utilizes these trends to predict future changes.Peshawar City District is the provincial capital and fifth most populated city of Pakistan after Karachi,Lahore,Faisalabad and Rawalpindi.Peshawar is located on the most fertile and productive land of Peshawar valley.Being the provincial capital,it is the hub of administrative,health,educational,industrial and financial activities and is the most rapidly growing urban centre of the province.During the last few decades Peshawar City experienced a swift expansion in its population and built-up area.About 0.78 million people were living in the district in 1972 and they multiplied to over 2 million by 1998,further shooting to 4.26 million by 2017,the population density of the city district was 3400 person per square kilometre at that time.The dynamics of growth and change in land use in the city district during the period 1991-2014 was studied utilizing GIS and remote sensing technologies.Spot 2.5 meters resolution images of Peshawar City District were available for 2014 and was processed using Supervised Maximum Likelihood Classified Algorithm Technique.For every land use class at least 150 trainings samples(signatures)were created.This helped in the generation of land use maps for the two dates.In addition,Error Matrix Method was used for accuracy assessment.Since spot data was not available for 1991 and 2002,so reliance had to be made on Landsat 30 meters data.The land use data obtained from satellite images was supplemented,and cross checked with revenue records for studying the pattern of agricultural land use changes over time.This study also made an attempt to examine the dynamics of groundwater change in the study area over the twenty-three years 1991-2014 in relation of expansion of built up area.GIS and remote sensing techniques were again employed to study this relationship.The groundwater data for the years 1991 and 2014 was collected from the Government Water and Works Department of Peshawar,which assembles data for ground water depth from wells widespread in the city district.Global Positioning System(GPS)device was used to check the exact location of wells.Besides examining the overall trend in groundwater fluctuation in the city district.An interpolation technique(Inverse Distance Weighted)in ArcMap was applied to figure out the changes that have occurred in water table over the study period.Besides examining the overall condition of water table for the two dates,the city district was divided into eight sections to assess and quantify the expansion of built-up area and relate it to groundwater changes in each section.This study also used IDRISI CA(Cellular Automata)– Markov model to predict the future change in built up area up to 2044 on the basis of past trend(1991-2014)and its impact on encroachment or loss of agricultural land as well as level of ground water.The model predicted that some 25200 hectares of agricultural land will be converted to build environment during the next three decades.This projected growth will occur in all direction of the city district with the annual growth rate of about 840 ha(2014-2044).The past trend of fluctuation of groundwater(in feet)with the expansion of size of built-uses was also used to predict future trend in ground water depletion.The most severe impact in terms of groundwater depletion will take place in the southern parts of the city.The average depletion took place was 68.4 feet during the last two decades(1991-2014).As predicted the average water depletion will be 89.2 feet by 2044.Unplanned development and sprawling on the available farmland and the depletion of groundwater are the major issues in Peshawar City District.There is a major need to put the future growth of the city on the right track through development control to check and develop strategies to mitigate it.