Research On Construction And Application Of Land-use Change Temporal-spatial Dynamics Method

The integration of a Geographic Information System(GIS),a system dynamics(SD)model,a cellular automata(CA)model,and an agent-based model(ABM)to build a complex temporal-spatial dynamics simulation is a hot but difficult topic in the temporal and spatial simulation of land-use changes.The study first explored the possibility of multi-model integration through theoretical research.With the grid unit as the core,the information exchange and transmission between each sub-model is realized.Based on this,a land-use change temporal-spatial dynamics method(LandTSDM)was constructed by coupling SD-CAABM-GIS.Finally,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region was taken as an example to carry out related scenario simulation research.The main research results include:(1)The SD macro-influence was imported into the CA transition rules to extend the CA model.The CA simulation evolution was controlled at both macro and micro levels.Meanwhile,by refining neighborhood cells,the tranditional CA neighborhood rules were extended based on Tobler’s First Law of Geography and spatial proximity.By refining the neighborhood cell type,a “Square + Circle” neighborhood was proposed to offset the insufficiencies of the traditional neighborhoods.(2)By selecting appropriate indicators between SD model and CA model as the communication mechanism,the bidirection and real-time communication between the two models was contructed based on the smallest cell unit.(3)On the grid-based level for integrating SD-CA-ABM-GIS,LandTSDM was established to achieve seamless integration among SD,CA,ABM,and GIS,taking CA model as a breakthrough point.By coordinating time step among SD-CA-ABM-GIS,the effective interaction between macro scale and micro scale,spatial dimension and temporal dimension,human activity and natural environment was implemented.The prototype system was developed based on the NetLogo platform,which facilitated the widespread dissemination and use for the LandTSDM.(4)Land-use scenario simulation study was carried out based on the land-use data of BTH region from 1995 to 2013.It was found that,by 2030,with the implementation of the BTH coordinated development strategy and the establishment of the Xiong’an New District in Hebei,the expansion of Beijing construction land was reduced by about 10% compared with the indepent development.This has curbed the urban expansion pace in Beijing to a certain extent.The construction of LandTSDM is conducive to scientifically and quantitatively obtain the impact and implementation effect on land-use planning in the future,providing a methodological and technical reference for government decision-making.