| With the progress and development of human,water requirement is continuously increasing,Water resources have becomed a strategic issues relating to surviving and development,and also play an important role in affecting national security and international relations,Water problems becomes more prominent,and becomes an important aspect of national security.With the population increasing,social progressing,economic rapidly developing,water resources continuously improve,Human interferencing on the water system,the quantity and quality of water resources are in a recession situation,the water security environment is in deterioration.The Guanzhong region is the political,economical and cultural center of Shaanxi Province,the Guanzhong regional population is about 60%of the whole province’s.Gross national product accounted for 70%of the province’s.Agricultural output,food output value accounted for 2/3 of the province,Plays an important role in the provincial economy.By the development of Socio-economic in Guanzhong region,shortage of water resources become increasingly prominent.the per capita share of water is 17 percent of the country’s,30 percent of the province,water resources becomes the primary constraint of social and economical development in the Guanzhong region.In recent years,there are many water crisis in the Guanzhong region.Adapting to the growing economic development and population growth,the balance between utilization of water resources and social economic sustainable development becomes a macro-strategic issues.Making an suitable industrial structure adjustment policy and long-term planning about the socio-economic development of regional water resources should based on the local water resource conditions.This paper is based on overall and accurate understanding of the situation of water resources in the Guanzhong region.According to the social-economic development of Shaanxi and Guanzhong region,Selecting 2008 as the base year,analyzing the regional socio-economic water requirement,making a predictions about water requirement of Guanzhong region in the 2015,2020.Meanwhile,by statistical analysesing and remote-sensing,the regional ecological water requirement is estimated.On this basis,building Guanzhong region’s security evaluation index system of water resources,using the grey relational analysis method,the regional water security was evaluated.In this research,some important results have been concluded:① The basic situation of water resources:Average annual precipitation of Guanzhong region is 671mm.The annual precipitation of Guanzhong region is 35.869 billion m3.The maximum annual precipitation is in Xi’an,774.2mm;minimum is in Xianyang,580.9mm;the other four region are Baoji 726.0mm;Tongchuan 618.5mm;Weinan 601.6mm;Yangling 589.2mm.②The Guanzhong region’s annual runoff volume reachs to 6.932 billion m3,the runoff depth is 125.16 mm.According to administrative Region,the maximum runoff is Baoji,reaching to 33.5124 billion m3,Xi’an is second,2.123 billion m3.The Weinan,Xianyang,Tongchuan,are 787 million m3,469 million m3,197 million m3,Yangling is the minimum,only 0.0442 billion m3.③Guanzhong region underground water resources totaled 5.34 billion m3,Baoji is the maximum,underground water resources is 1.727 billion m3;second is Xi’an,underground water resources is 1.564 billion m3;the underground water resources of Weinan City is 1.1579 billion m3,and Xianyang underground water resources is 784.1 million m3;Tongchuan underground water resources is 092.9 million m3;Yangling is minimum,only is 1.1579 billion m3.④ The annual precipitation totaled 89.589 billion m3 in Guanzhong region,380.01 m3 per capita.The annual precipitation in Baoji is No.1 by 1026.32 m3,Xi’an is No.2 by 315.58 m3 per capita,Weinan,Tongchuan,Xianyang are No.3,NO.4 and No.5 by 265.12 m3,243.92 m3,160.02 m3 per capita,the last is Yangling,only 53.82 m3.The average production water depth is 161.76mm in this region.Based on the average production water depth,the most abundant of total water resources is Xi’an,the average production,depth is 264.76mm,the most poor region is Tongchuan,and the average production depth is 52.37mm,the average production depth of Baoji,Weinan,Yangling,Xianyang are 212.50 mm,109.63 mm and 92.23,79.18 mm.According to the cultivated land,the water resource per mu is 5899.39 m3/hm2 in the whole region,and in Baoji is 12395.34 m3/m2 which is the most abundant,Xi’an is 10145.67 m3/hm2.Tongchuan,Weinan,Xianyang takes 3rd,4th and 5th,are 3301.94 m3/hm2,2773.20 m3/hm2 and 2238.64 m3/hm2 the last is Yangling which only is 2084.14 m3/hm2.2.Social-economic water requirement was analysised and forecasted①The total water requirements in Guanzhong region in 2008 is 88.27 × 108m3,of which the industrial water requirements is in the first place by 44.29 × 108m3.The second largest water requirements is in agriculture by 34.7 × 108m3,domestic water requirements is the third by 9.27 x 108m3.The water requirements in the distribution of the various administrative regions,Xi’an is the highest by 33.90 × 108m3 in 2008,Xianyang is the second by 19.23 × 108m3,Weinan is the third by 18.39× 108m3,Baoji is the fourth by 14.20× 108m3,Tongchuan is the fifth by 1.95 × 108m3,Yangling is the last which water requirements is only 0.56×108m3.From water resources supply and demand balance of Guanzhong region in 2008,We can learn that Baoji region is rich in water resources,because the surface water resources of Baoji is abundant,other regions have water shortage in varying degrees,Xi’an is the city of which is the most short of water byl8.04×108m3,Xianyang is the second by 14.42 ×108m3,Weinan is the third by 9.75 ×108m3.The water shortage is serious in Gunzhong region and only 34.48 ×108m3,just reach to 38.9%of the water requirement.2 Guanzhong region in 2015 the water resources requirement totaled 136.297 × 108m3,in which the industrial water requirement is in the first place,the water requirement is 85.94 × 108m3.Agricultural water requirement is the second largest in the Guanzhong region up to 40.01 × 108m3,of which irrigation water requirement is 39.73 × 108m3,paddy irrigation water requirement is 6.658 × 108m3,the irrigation water requirement of irrigated land is 33.076× 108m3,the water requirement of livestock is 0.27× 108m3;,the domestic water requirement is 10.35 × 108m3.From the water requirement in the distribution of the various administrative regions,Xi’an water requirement is the highest reach to 57.35 × 108m3 in 2015;Xianyang in second place water requirement is 26.75 × 108m3;the Weinan ranked third,water requirement is 25.85 × 108m3;Baoji located in the fourth,water requirement is 21.74 × 108m3;Tongchuan water requirement is 3.73 × 108m3 arranged in fifth;the minimum water requirement is Yangling region that only 0.89× 108m33 Guanzhong region in 2020 the water resources requirement totaled 176.87 × 108m3,of which the industrial water requirement in the first place,the water requirement is 129.63 × 108m3 agricultural water requirement is the second largest demand is the Guanzhong region up to 34.61 × 108m3,of which irrigation water requirement is 34.33 × 108m3,paddy irrigation water requirement is 5.86 × 108m3,the irrigation water requirement of irrigated land is 28.47 × 108m3,the water requirement of livestock is 0.27× 108m3;,the domestic water requirement is 12.61 × 108m3.From the distribution of the various administrative regions,Xi’an water requirement is the highest,reach to 80.546 × 108m3 in 2020;Weinan in second place water requirement is 31.353 × 108m3;the Xianyang ranked third,water requirement is 31.252 × 108m3;Baoji located in the fourth,water requirement is 28.085 × 108m3;Tongchuan water requirement is 4.409 × 108m3,arranged in fifth;the minimum water requirement is Yangling region that only 1.225 × 108m3.④ With the development of social-economic,social-economic water requirement increased significantly,the Guanzhong region total water requirement increase,from 88.27 ×108m3 in 2008 to 136.30×108m3 in 2015,the water requirement will reach to 176.87×108m3 in 2020.Water requirement increases one time every 10 years,mainly due to industrial development,industrial water requirement and population rapid increase,the domestic water requirement continuous increase,little change in agricultural water requirement,mainly because of the application of water-saving irrigation technologies,the water quota decreased.Water requirement’ continued to increase the water gap increasingly great,the water shortages will reach to 82.543×108m3 in 2015,close to the total water resources of the Guanzhong region,which Xi’an water shortage is most severe,reaching 41.488×108m3,followed by the Xianyang City 21.937 ×108m3,Weinan City of 17.215 ×108m3,Baoji water resources supply and demand basically meet the requirement.Guanzhong region water shortage in 2020 reached 123.115×108m3,Xi’an,water shortage is most severe,up to 64.687 ×108m3,followed by the Xianyang,26.444 ×108m3,Weinan is 22.715 ×108m3,Yangling region,the gap is smaller just 1.1726 ×108m3.3.Estimating ecological water requirementEcological water requirement in guanzhong is divided into three categories:ecological water requirement in dry land,ecological water in river and urban ecological water requirement.Guanzhong region ecological water requirement totaled 62.455×108m3.the ecological water in river course is maximum,33.450 ×108m3,followed by dryland-water requirement is 19.9 ×108m3,wetlands water requirement is 4.968×108m3,Urban greening water requirement is the minimum,only 0.5575×108m3.4.Water resources security is in dangrousEstablishing the Guanzhong region’s water security evaluation criteria,using grey relational analysis method,make a comprehensive evaluation about water security situation in the Guanzhong region.1 Based on the principles of Water Resources Security Evaluation Index System,combined with the valid data,the paper selected 10 indicators to evaluate water resources security,includ per capita water resources,per mu of water resources,the modulus of water production,annual precipitation,characterization of water resources conditions;Ⅲ-levels water quality accounts for the proportion of whole river,Characterization of the water environment situation;The level of water security awareness,per capita water consumption,population density,per capita GDP,water consumption of ten thousand yuan,characterization of the social-economic status.2 using grey relational analysis method to make a comprehensive evaluation about water security situation in the Guanzhong region:according to the evaluation system and evaluation criteria of this paper,Xi’an Water Security is 1-levels security,Baoji is 2-levels security,Xianyang,Weinan,Tongchuan are 3-levels security,Yangling is 4-levels security,This indicats that most of the region is in crisis of water security,that deserves our vigilance.The papers should be improved:①Ecological water requirement etimate method Dryland ecological water requirement in the paper draws on zhifeng Yang,Jingling Liu’s research results of the Yellow River.However,due to the recognition accuracy of the TM images,the classification of vegetation is relatively simple,raising the accuracy of the vegetation type,the accuracy of dryland water requirement estimation will be improved.Moreover,the classification of vegetation is relatively simple,The different coverage of same type and the impact of different tree species on the ecological water requirement are not considered.②Evaluation index system and standardsWater security system is a large and complex composite system,Its subsystems include many factors.According to the connotation of water security and index analysis,Screened representative indicators,constitute the water resources security evaluation index system.There are many indicators of water resources security reflecting the quantity of water resources,in the paper,indicators reflecting water quality is selected only one,we should increase the collection of quality indicators.Establishing a national water resources security evaluation criteria,national standardization of the National Water Security Assessment should be researched. |
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