Iron Ore International Capacity Cooperation Research Under "The Belt And Road" Policy

As the "skeleton" of the national economy,the industry cycle of the iron and steel industry is closely related to the pulsation of the macro-economy,and it also directly affects the smooth operation and healthy development of the national economy."Belt and Road Initiative" development initiative,for our country to adjust the allocation of overseas iron ore resources supply channels and ways to provide a new strategic opportunity to carry out international cooperation of iron ore production capacity.Because of the iron ore investment evaluation of existing methods and the allocation of resources to investigate the existence of uncertain factors impact on investment,not considering the strategic factors of iron ore investment value flexibility and the existing research,and consider less for "macro background development initiative The Belt and Road".This paper presents the iron ore investment evaluation under complex conditions,combined with the "The Belt and Road" principle,build the framework of ideas and the practical situation of our country,the steel and iron ore demand model of investment evaluation model.A series of studies have been made in two aspects of iron ore import demand scale and iron ore investment evaluation in China.1.From the perspective of supply side reform,based on the Verhulst model and the related theories of industrial economics,iron and steel demand forecasting model and iron ore foreign direct investment theory(monopoly advantage theory,transaction cost theory,comparative advantage investment theory,PSR mechanism of China’s iron ore supply security),this paper analyzes the domestic and foreign countries.The factors especially the influence of international anti dumping,domestic production capacity and scrap steel trade on iron and steel supply,a new iron and steel supply model and China’s iron ore import demand model are established,and China’s steel consumption in the next 5 years is predicted.The forecast data show that China’s steel consumption market is about 8.93~9.52 in the last 5 years.Between hundreds of millions of tons.There is a gap between the forecast data and the predicted data from some scholars and the World Steel Association,which is exactly the same as the amount of iron ore in port stock.2.Belt and Road Initiative along the country’s iron ore resource reserves and development policy perspective,the cooperation of all parties with the reality of the necessity and feasibility of.China’s iron ore resources are "very short",resulting in huge import demand.In related policies,China has also implemented a series of policies,such as encouraging iron ore exploration,mining technological innovation and strengthening foreign imports."The Belt and Road" of the overall national reserves of iron ore resources greatly;at the same time,"The Belt and Road" countries for the development and export of iron ore resources on the whole to endorse or encourage attitude.This can create favorable conditions to promote "The Belt and Road" world iron ore resources trade.In the framework of cooperation The Belt and Road initiative under the China and The Belt and Road along the iron ore exporter of iron ore production capacity of international cooperation,both advantages and disadvantages,but the positive benefits of the parties in terms of international iron ore production cooperation is the mainstream,small and negative benefits can weaken or avoid through a variety of ways.Therefore,from the level of demand and benefit of cooperation,the cooperation of all parties has the necessity and feasibility.3.The risk assessment model is set up for the pure import cooperation model,the joint venture investment import model and the overseas merger and acquisition model.The study showed that "the risk of net imports of The Belt and Road cooperation mode under the background of the" general "but to" smaller "state;joint venture import cooperation mode in the overall risk of" general "and" small bias "status,risk assessment score is less than net imports of imports of overseas mergers and acquisitions mode;cooperation mode the risk on the whole in the" general "and" large "bias state,risk assessment scores than pure imported models of joint venture investment import mode.4.According to the present situation of iron ore production capacity of the current international cooperation "The Belt and Road" background,put forward the security layout strategy,China iron ore production capacity of international cooperation including: the development strategy of domestic iron ore resources,overseas iron ore resources development strategy,the iron ore resources in the development of alternative strategies,the iron ore resources reserve strategy."Chinese tactics include the security of supply of iron ore The Belt and Road background: actively respond to the international iron ore monopoly tendency,the strengthening of the international iron ore financialization trend to continue to strictly the international iron ore export standards,gradually change the international iron ore trade order is not fair.