| At current stage,China is facing a major historical issue of how to build its own manufacturing industry and complete the transformation from big country with manufacturing industry to power manufacturing country and realize the sustainable development of the economy.China's economy is facing a critical period of industrial restructuring.This paper chooses to study the Japanese manufacturing industry with rich and continuous evolution process,which may be one of the effective ways to understand and solve the "How to do" at the present stage of China's manufacturing industry.For this reason,this paper analyzes the four aspects of the Integrated and Upgraded of the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry in Japan from 1973 to 2012,the "What","How","Why" and "Can".The results show as follows:Firstly,the related theoretical analysis of the evolution of industrial structure main include three aspects: First,expounding the general trend and general princeiples of industrial structure adjustment of manufacturing industry.Secondly,analyzing the determinants and relationship between Integrated and Upgraded of industrial structure in detail.Thirdly,the study elaborates the economic performance of the Integrated and Upgraded of the industrial structure,mainly from the impacts of industrial structure optimization on the economic growth,the economic cycle fluctuations and the structural effects of the related industries.Secondly,the basic characteristics analysis of Japanese manufacturing industry demonstrates: From the output aspect,the Japanese low-tech manufacturing industry,the proportion of output reduced;the proportion of high-tech manufacturing enhanced.From the factor input aspect,the total factor productivity of Japanese manufacturing industry increased from 1973 to 1991,and the total factor productivity of middle and high-tech manufacturing increased more than low-tech manufacturing.In 1992-2012,the total factor productivity of middle and high-tech manufacturing continued to increase,low-tech manufacturing industry showed a downward trend;in 1973-2012,Japan's manufacturing demand for labor factor continued to decline,the decline of demand in 1992-1995 was more than in 1973-1995.in 1973-2012,the total demand for capital in the manufacturing sector continued to increase,the increase between 1992 and 2012 was lower than that in 1973-1991.In 1973-2012,the proportion of energy demand in Japan's low-tech manufacturing industry continued to decrease,and the energy demand continues to improve.Thirdly,the study of Integrated and Upgraded evolution of Japanese manufacturing industry shows that the degree of Upgraded of the manufacturing industrial structure continue to increase in Japan during 1973 to 1991,and the influence of the middle and high-tech manufacturing industry on the Upgraded gradually increased,and the low-tech manufacturing industry gradually decreased,which was line with the upgrade of the industrial structure in the same period,the Japanese manufacturing industry shift from unbalanced to balanced and the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry show as "real optimization";1992-2012,the Integrated of Japan's manufacturing industry presented downward trend,Industrial development from equilibrium to non-equilibrium,but because of the performance of the industrial structure of virtual high-level,the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry show as "virtual optimization."Fourthly,the study of the endogenous motivation of the Integrated and Upgraded evolution of the Japanese manufacturing industry show that:(1)1973-1991,the direct reason of the virtual upgraded of Japan's manufacturing industry,was that the Japanese national scientific and technological innovation system policy guidance was adapted with the technical paradigm at the same period,to ensure that the industry with "heavy growth" type substituted by “light and short” industry with the technological,which was the same as the international mainstream industry.The indirect reason was that the growth rate of productivity for capital,labor and energy in middle and high-tech manufacturing industry was generally higher than low-tech manufacturing industry,Capital,labor and energy elements generally flow to high-tech manufacturing industry with higher productivity,which strengthened the virtual upgraded of industrial structure.1992-2012,the direct reason of the nominal upgraded of Japan's manufacturing industry,was that Japanese national innovation system and information technology economic paradigm after the catch-up period conflict,the connotation of advanced technological innovation of the Japanese manufacturing industry different from international mainstream industry technology of the same period;the indirect reason was the speed of production factors flow to high-tech manufacturing industry significantly reduced,and weakening the effect of strengthen the virtual upgraded of industrial structure.(2)1973-1991,The direct reason for the integrated of structure of Japan's manufacturing industry was that the growth rate of the productivity of the middle-high-tech manufacturing industry was increasing,and the gap of growth rate of productivity between low-tech and middle-high-tech manufacturing industry was shrinking,which ensured the input of production factors relatively balanced in different levels of technology manufacturing industry;the indirect reason was that virtual upgraded of industries structure will be helpful to improve the proliferation effect of high-tech manufacturing on low-tech Manufacturing,and improved the productivity of low-tech manufacturing.1992-2012,the direct reason of downward of the integration of the industrial structure in Japan,was that the growth rate of productivity getting outstanding different among industries,The higher factor productivity growth was mainly presented in one or two industry,The gap was getting bigger and bigger,the distribution of production factors in the industry from equilibrium to imbalance.The indirect reason was that nominal upgraded of industry structure hinders the diffusion effect of some high-tech manufacturing industry with higher productivity to the low-tech manufacturing industry,which affects the improvement of the productivity of low-tech manufacturing industry.Fifthly,the economic performance research of Integrated and Upgraded evolution of Japanese manufacturing industry show that: First,in 1973-1991,the economic growth of manufacturing industry,the Integrated and Upgraded of industrial structure presented a Granger causal relationship between each other in the short and long-term.In 1992-2012,the economic growth of manufacturing industry and the upgrade of industrial structure showed double side Granger causality relationship in the short and long term;the economic growth of manufacturing industry and the integrated of industrial structure,the integrated of industrial structure and the upgrade of industrial structure demonstrated without any Granger causal relationship between them in the short-term and long-term.Second,the upgrade of industrial structure index changes from low to strong,and the integrated of industrial structure index changes from strong to weak throughout the observation period;the growth of output gradually increased,and the main driver gradually transfer from the integrated of industrial structure to the upgrade of industrial structure.Thirdly,the input-output analysis shows: the intermediate demand ratepresents that there is a clear tendency for the Japanese manufacturing industry was transiting to the final demand.The Japanese manufacturing industry is weakened as a raw material intermediate product,and the characteristics of the final product are increasing.The added value of Japanese manufacturing industry is increasing.The influence coefficient analysis shows that the impact of chemical industry and food industry on the primary industry are significantly higher than that of other manufacturing industries.The influence of manufacturing industry on the secondary industry is higher than that of the first industry;the influence of manufacturing industry on the tertiary industry is between the first and the second industry.The analysis of the sensitivity coefficient shows that the pulling effect of the primary industry on the manufacturing industry is mainly reflected in the food industry,chemical industry,energy industry,primary metal industry And non-metallic products industry,the tertiary industry in the education of medical catering industry in pulling the development of the manufacturing sector has played a crucial role in the production induced coefficient analysis shows that during the observation period of the Japanese manufacturing production induced effect from high to low The order is always invested for investment,consumption and exports,compared to 1973,compared to the investment and export production induced a slight increase in the effect of consumption production induced effect is reduced in 2012 compared to 1992 investment and production induced effect slightly Enhance,export and consumption of production induced effect is reduced.The final dependency coefficient analysis shows that during the observation period,the Japanese manufacturing sector had the greatest dependence on the demand for export investment in the final demand,followed by consumption and investment.Finally,summed up the expreirence of the Japanese manufacturing industry and answer to the Chinese government should how to deal with China's manufacturing industry restructuring and upgrading.There are two suggestions that China should do as follows: First,it is necessary to make a clear idea of innovative ideas,that is,whether China should be guided by creative innovation or technology innovation.This study thinks that it should be Select the latter,this is because the innovation and development of the Japanese manufacturing industry to a certain extent,showing such a development model,resulting in the late Japanese innovation capacity of the shackles,affecting the development of manufacturing;Second,from the practical level of operation,at this stage The pace of global technology update is significantly accelerated,the product from the R & D to the sales cycle is also significantly shortened,China does not have the 20 th century,about 70 years of Japanese manufacturing industry can imitate the specific environment of innovation,the Chinese government should intensify efforts to build China's independent innovation System,to overcome the short-term interests of the temptation to strengthen the long-term innovation and construction,the development of China's leading industries of innovation,innovation and leading industries to further related industries have industrial-related effects,and promote the overall industry development. |
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