| According to the traditional financial theories,the decisions of market participants are based on rational expectations,risk aversion,utility maximization,and rational choice.But rational person hypothesis can not fully explain the diversification of risk factors in the domestic real estate financial market.Through the studies,the issues of domestic real estate financial market are not only the the contradiction between supply and demand of land shortage,the price to income ratio by the super currency and low interest rates,reliance on Land Finance,the problem of inventory pressure caused by regional economic differentiation,but also the risk due to lack of awareness of risk that contains the Real estate enterprises,government,financial institutions and investors,such as the four major market participants who have the irrational behavior in pursuit of excess returns.Because of the lack of theoretical discussion on the factors of market participants in real estate financial risk,at present,our real estate financial risk disposal strategy is scattered,not conducive to defuse risks.In the face of the increasingly complex economic and financial situation,he goal of this paper is analyzing the financial risk and real estate finance by using the theory of behavioral finance,Sorting out the development of the domestic real estate financial market,identifying the main characteristics of the current domestic real estate financial risk,establish a suite of real estate financial risk identification system,which consists government,real estate enterprises,financial institutions,investors who are four main participants in the real estate financial market.Through the empirical analysis of J company and a comparative analysis of the financial risks of major real estate in Japan,Hongkong and the United States,the paper establishes a risk identification and risk management model suitable for the development of the current domestic real estate financial market.Based on the principle that the government should maintain the stability of the social and financial order,the principle of marketization,the principle of handling according to law and preventing the spread of risks,it construct a comprehensive disposal strategy.The article puts forward the prevention and control suggestion to the real estate financial risk in the future,and aims at resolving and preventing the financial risk of the real estate industry in China.The main content of this paper includes the introduction,the theoretical background of China's real estate financial risk analysis,China's real estate financial market situation,China's real estate financial risk,China's real estate financial risk identification,the domestic real estate financial risk disposal example analysis,the financial risks of real estate in the international comparison and enlightenment and the real estate finance risk management countermeasures and suggestions,conclusion and suggestion etc..The first chapter presents the background,significance,objectives and contents of this study.It puts forward the disposal of China's real estate financial risks of this paper from three angles,which contains the pay attention to the financial risk of the real estate industry in the period of economic transformation and upgrading,searching for the disposal of well-known real estate financial risks in the world,pay attention to the sociality and expansion of the real estate financial risks.The purpose of this study is to sort out the development situation of the domestic real estate financial market,the main features to identify the current domestic real estate financial risks,the establishment of real estate enterprises,including government,financial institutions,investors and other four subjects involved in the real estate financial risk identification system and effective risk identification model.By reviewing the resolution of the debt crisis of J real estate enterprises in China,the experiences of dealing with major financial risks in real estate such as Japan,Hongkong and the United States.It has set up a comprehensive disposal strategy suitable for the development of the current domestic real estate financial market,and put forward prevention and control suggestions for the future real estate financial risk.The second chapter is to explore the theoretical background of the domestic real estate financial risk analysis.In the traditional theory of finance,systemic financial risk is the major cause of financial instability.Traditional financial theory holds that systemic financial risk is mainly caused by currency issue,credit expansion and interest rate adjustment,however,the underlying factors of the utility of market participants are less explored.Around the world,the academia pays more attention to the generation,identification,warning and prevention of the real estate financial risk,but the research on the disposal of the real estate financial risk,especially the comprehensive disposal strategy is less.Speaking of the disposal methods,the government adopts the financial policy,monetary policy,administrative means and so on to dissolve the risk,financial institutions mainly transfer and disperse risks through financial product innovation.The study of other participants' disposal strategies is not enough.There are few researches involving real estate enterprises,financial institutions and investors.Because of the asymmetric information of financial resources,the mismatch of time and space leads to the generation of periodic bubbles.In the process of cyclical bubbles,financial capital and real economy continue to produce financial risks,by crowding out effect,substitution effect,repulsion effect and lever effect,etc.in four ways.With the deviation between the hypothesis of rational man and the present economic reality in traditional financial research,and The neglect of the influence of the four factors on the market development trend in the real estate financial market,the author finds that it is necessary to analyze the real estate financial risk by introducing the theoretical system of behavioral finance.By analyzing the development of the real estate financial market from the perspective of behavioral deviation theory,noise trading theory,herd effect,and government intervention in the market,we should analyze the causes of risks from the perspective of market participants,and establish an analysis system based on the behavior characteristics of market participants,so as to identify the risk factors of the domestic real estate financial market.The third chapter reviews the development of the domestic real estate industry in the eight stages,and then analyzes the domestic real estate market on the economy and growth characteristics.Domestic real estate industry is changing from the increment peirod to presevration period.This paper analyzes the environmental factors of the domestic real estate finance,and points out that the development of the real estate industry is the result of the interaction of the policy environment,economic environment,social environment and management environment.It is pointed out that the national macro-control policy is the most important factor in the real estate industry,and the development of the real estate market is closely related to the economic cycle.There is a positive relationship between GDP and real estate prices,the price level is positively correlated with the real estate price,the interest rate is negatively correlated with the real estate price.Urbanization has a certain role in promoting the development of the real estate industry.Through a series of analysis,the article explores the real estate financial risk factor analysis and disposal strategy.The forth chapter analyzes the main characteristics of China's real estate financial risks.This paper analyzes a series of features that the risk of the financial bubble,the government debt over reliance on land finance the debt risk,price earnings ratio and real estate inventory differentiation within the region to bring pressure on the stock,the mismatch of resources and lead to the real estate market in information asymmetry.The research points out that the development of the balance of funds,real estate enterprise asset liability ratio increased year by year,while the current ratio continued to decline in recent years housing prices that reflects the leverage of production enterprises gradually enlarged,erosion on the benefit of enterprises increasing.Financial institutions over reliance on the real estate industry,the rapid rise in household leverage has further increased the possibility of financial risk out of control.At the same time,the government's land supply lags behind the market demand,rising land prices and also boost the government reliance on land finance,the development of the real estate market is increasingly becoming an important factor of local government debt risk.However,despite the hosuing price-income ratio has decreased,but the huge pressure on small and medium cities and the rising prices of major cities make the purchasing power of residents continued to decline.The demand side of the real estate market is shrinking,coupled with asymmetric information,resulting in mismatch of resources,exacerbated by the possibility of the outbreak of the real estate financial risks.Through the induction,the article finds out the common factors of the real estate financial risk,and analyzes the factors that influence the real estate financial risk.The fifth chapter is the analysis of the real estate finance risk by the four factors.The paper points out that the real estate financial market is influenced by real estate enterprises,government,financial institutions and investors.In an open,interconnected real estate financial market mechanism,the government,real estate companies,financial institutions and investors will become the main causes of real estate financial risks.This paper carried out the empirical validity of the four factor theory analysis by SPSS software,a comprehensive analysis of 9 risk factors including the government level and the level of financial institutions,enterprises and individual investors level level Four Levels.Compared with the national housing climate index,the results of the model analysis are in good agreement with the national housing climate index,which confirms the positive value of the four factor analysis theory.The research shows that four main factors,such as government,real estate enterprises,financial institutions and investors,are involved in the real estate financial market.The four factor theory of real estate financial risk is an important starting point for the study of the causes of the real estate financial risks,and also an important foothold to sort out the real estate financial risk management strategies.Finally,based on the four factor theory,this chapter identifies the domestic real estate financial market risk.National macro-control policies can effectively control the national real estate financial risks,but the government is still highly concerned about the issue of debt,land finance will be tied to the local government and the real estate market.Regional differentiation of the real estate market will affect the local government revenue sources.This paper uses four factor model to test the risk level of the six cities.Housing prices may become an important risk of bankruptcy risk in the new era of real estate financial risks.Because of the real estate business project layout errors and slow-moving,capital chain risk imminent.Restrictions on the purchase of credit policy is a test of the ability of the real estate business,with the over financing and financial pressure,making the real estate business debt risk very easliy to spread outside the territory.For real estate financial products excessive leverage behavior,financial institutions will be the risk of the spread of the accelerator.Excessive investment in real estate financial products,investors have become an important factor in risk distribution.At present,from the government,real estate companies,financial institutions and investors from four angles,the establishment of a suite of real estate financial risk four-dimensional disposal system is very necessary.The sixth chapter studies the financial risk disposal case of the domestic J Real Estate Company.This paper uses the four-dimensional disposal strategy of real estate financial risk to carry out the case study of J company's financial risk management,and reviews the causes and results of the event.J shrink the front line and then sell less developed areas of the reserve projects,and actively safeguard government relations,restore project sales to regain cash flow,strengthen communication with financial institutions and extend debt.In a reasonable assessment of the value of enterprises on the basis of financial institutions,pre-trial damage control,financial institutions set up the debt Commission,to strengthen communication with regulators to win the understanding and support of the project assets and refinement,positive investor protection perspective of risk disposal.The government actively guide investors to safeguard their own rights and interests,to give investors time and space to resolve the debt crisis of J,to achieve a win-win situation.Through the case analysis of empirical J corporate debt crisis management,the article puts forward thinking on causes of the debt crisis and the disposal strategy,and further pointed out that the domestic real estate financial institutions risk should consciously assume social responsibility,establish risk sharing mechanism.The seventh chapter is the international comparison of real estate financial risks.Reviewing the Japan's real estate bubble in 1991,the Hongkong property market fell in 1997 and the financial turmoil,the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the three important real estate financial risk events in the world,studing on the financial common factors of three real estate financial risks.This paper sums up the performance of all the parties involved in the market before the outbreak of the three financial risk,and the disposal measures of the market after the outbreak of the risk.In crisis,analysis pointed out that the Japanese government forced to intervene in the market,Hongkong's financial institutions and governments lack protection for investors,the United States shifts risk to the global market.These all have the adverse influence to the real estate financial risk disposition,we need to pay attention when we establish the new real estate risk management strategy.In the eighth chapter,according to the study above,on the basement of that the government should take the responsibility of maintaining the stability of the social and financial order,adhere to the principles of marketization,manage risks according to law,prevent the spread of risks,and take into consideration the basic principles of dealing with financial risks of stakeholders,the paper,the article points out that financial institutions should carefully control the spread of risk,real estate enterprises should strengthen their ability to operate,investors should take the initiative to avoid risks,the government should take the initiative to strengthen risk prevention.The article further discusses the risk outbreak,spread,and other different risk stages of comprehensive disposal strategy,and build a diversified real estate financial risk disposal program.This paper puts forward suggestions on the real estate financial risk prevention and control of the future,including the establishment of monitoring system of macro data and regional data combined,strengthen the supervision system of government regulation,continue to carry out the management of the central government and local government,strengthen the supervision and management of supervision mechanism,improve the self-discipline management of financial institutions,encourage to establish a market system combines real estate enterprise steady development and investor risk identification.In view of the four participants in the real estate financial market,we need to strengthen the construction of financial risk prevention and control system from many aspects.The ninth chapter summarizes the above research.The article points out that the real estate financial risk is accumulating continuously,under the real estate finance environment with Chinese characteristics.The four factors identification model of real estate finance risk can help us recognize and evaluate the degree of real estate financial risk in the region and major cities.Through the analysis of domestic and international real estate financial risk cases and J Real Estate Company debt crisis disposal experience,the article further enriched the theory of China's real estate financial risk disposal strategy.The article finally obtains five principles which should be followed in the disposal of Chinese real estate financial risks: the principle of maintaining social and financial order stability,marketization principle,principle of disposing according to law,principle of risk prevention diffusion,balance principle.From the government,the real estate enterprises,financial institutions and investors in four aspects,we established a market independent disposal system,disposal system integrated under the guidance of the government of the real estate financial risk management system and risk matching stage.There are some problems in the research process,such as the lack of quantitative analysis,the lack of refinement strategy and so on.This will also be the author's next research direction. |
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