Research On Evaluation And Optimization Of Energy Supply Structure Low Carbonization In China

Energy is the material basis of the existence and development of human society,is the strategic material related to the lifeline of a country's economy.During the past 200 years,the energy supply based on fossil energy has greatly promoted the development of human society and economy,but the greenhouse effect produced by the combustion of a lot of fossil energy,continued to influence and threat to the natural ecological environment depended on by human existence and development,and brought serious impacts to the social economic development of countries all over the world.The issues of climate change have been listed the first of top ten global environmental problems by the international society,and become the focus of attention of the international society.In this context,countries all over the world actively promote the development of energy low carbonization from the point of view of their own national conditions.The developed market economy countries pay more attention to the management of energy consumption,this research perspective focuses on the short-term management,is difficult to solve the fundamental problem of energy management.Based on this,this paper takes the energy supply as the research object,mainly studies the following contents:Analyze the present situation of energy supply structure in China.Based on the definitions of concept,such as energy supply structure and low carbonization,it analyzes the present situation of energy resources endowment and energy supply structure in China,and discusses the existing problems of energy supply structure in China.Evaluate influence factors and their influence degrees of energy supply structure low carbonization in China.It recognizes the influence factors of energy supply structure low carbonization,detailedly analyzes influence actions of the relevant factors on energy supply structure low carbonization;on the basis of determining the evaluation index selected principles of influence factors of energy supply structure low carbonization,it systematically selects influence factor evaluation indexes of energy supply structure low carbonization;it quantitatively evaluates the influence degrees of influence factors on energy supply structure low carbonization in China based on Optimal Combination Weights and OLS.Evaluate the level of energy supply structure low carbonization in China.Based on the description of construction idea of energy supply structure low carbonization level evaluation model,it detailedly selects evaluation indexes of energy supply structure low carbonization level,constructs evaluation indexes system of energy supply structure low carbonization level from the society,environment and energy three subsystems;it constructs evaluation model of energy supply structure low carbonization level,and carries out empirical research for the level of energy supply structure low carbonization in China based on Catastrophe Theory and Improved Entropy.Carry out empirical research for the optimum combination of energy supply structure in China.It forecasts energy supply structure in China from2015-2020 based on Combined Forecast Model,on this basis,defines the connotation and fundamental requirements of energy supply structure optimization under the low carbon condition;it determines the scenarios and scenario parameters of energy supply structure low carbonization based on Scenario Analysis,forecasts and analyses the carbon emissions levels of energy supply in China under different situations;it constructs optimization model of energy supply structure based on Linear Programming Method,takes the maximum reduction of carbon emissions as the target,designs the optimum combination of energy supply structure in China.Analyze the optimal paths of energy supply structure in China.On the basis of determining the optimal path research method of energy supply structure,it constructs the optimal path analysis model of energy supply structure;it carries out the principal component analysis on influence factors of energy supply structure low carbonization in China based on Principal Component Analysis Method;it detailedly discusses the influence paths of various influence factors on energy supply structure in China based on Path Analysis Method,and masters the optimal paths.Put forward the countermeasures for promoting the development of energy supply structure low carbonization in China.Put forward the countermeasures for promoting the development of energy supply structure low carbonization in China from the low carbonization of energy consumption,the optimization of industrial structure,technological progress,economic transition aspects,diversified energy supply and so on.