Research On Influencing Factors Of Supply And Demand And Equilibrium Pricing In High-Speed Rail And Air Market

By the end of 2016,total mileage of Chinese high-speed rail(HSR)has reached 22,000 km,which counting for 60%of world's total HSR mileage,China has become the world's leading HSR country.As for the high similarity between HSR and air,the appearance of HSR has brought threat to the leading position of air in the previous high-speed passenger transportation market.In the background of "super-ministry system" for ministry of communications and "integrated transportation" policy,there is urgent need to grasp the supply and demand relationship for HSR and air,and make development plans for HSR and air in systematic point of view.For this reason,this paper did a quantitative analysis on the influence factors for demand and supply in HSR and air passenger transportation market,and put forward a new method for equilibrium pricing for HSR and air.The main contents for this paper are as follows:(1)Demand Influencing Factors:By doing SP and RP survey for HSR and air passengers in Beijing-Shanghai line,passenger composition and the characteristics of passengers' travel mode choice behavior in Beijing-Shanghai line are analysed.Based on disaggregate theory,a Binary Logit model is built to estimate the impacts of different factors on passengers' choice.The results show:female passengers have a higher probability of choosing airlines;passengers' preference for air increase with income and on-time rate,decrease with age,accompanying number and ingress time;passengers' travel mode choice differs with departure time.(2)Supply Influencing Factors:Based on passenger ticket information starting 30 booking days before departure between March 22nd 2016 and July 28th 2016 for 30 routes of different distances in China,4 econometric regression models are built.Random effect generalized least squares(RE-GLS)and random effect generalized 2-stage least squares(RE-G2SLS)are deployed to estimate the impact of competition between HSR and air on air's pricing and frequencies.The results show:air prices are 42.9%lower and frequencies are 60.2%less on routes with HSR competition;frequencies and total travel time are important indicators for travel modes' competitiveness;the operation of HSR can influence the air prices' distribution in time and distances.(3)Equilibrium Pricing:A bi-level game model taking fare as decision variable is built based on analyzing characteristics of passengers' demand in high-speed transportation corridor.The upper level model depicts the dynamic game between HSR and air taking fare as decision variable,the lower level model ensures the minimum of generalized travel cost for all travelers,the game between upper and lower level model is treated as Stackelberg game.A heuristic solution algorithm based on sensitivity analysis is designed to solve it.In the numerical experiment,the data from Beijing-Shanghai transportation corridor is analyzed to prove the effectiveness of the model and algorithm.This method has certain reference value for decision department of making integerated development plan for HSR and air.