| With the promotion of the 13th Five Year Plan,for expanding the construction space of overall social infrastructure,infrastructure constructions as the main construction mode of the BT project are getting more and more attention by the government and social enterprises.The BT construction mode can not only alleviate the problem of government revenue,but also help to expand the scale of social enterprise development;thus it has very great development opportunities.However,in the process of BT project management,there are many risks of different sizes and different nature.How to reasonably and effectively share these risks is a key problem in BT project management.Therefore,researching and discussingproblem of risk allocation in BT project will be the focus of this paper,which has important practical significance and theoretical value.However,the existing researches on the risk research in the construction mode of BT projects aremostly focused on outlining and evaluating the risk factors,and the research on risk sharing is relatively limited and not deep enough.Most of the researches on risk allocation are qualitative researches through questionnaires and interviewsand quantitative analysis are more limited.Therefore,how to quantify the problem of risk allocationhas important practical significance and theoretical value for the BT project research of risk allocation.This paper will use the method,which combines of qualitative and quantitative analysis,also combines theoretical analysis and empirical study,to discuss the risk allocation for BT project.The main research content and conclusions are as follows:(1)51 risk factors of China's BT project are identified by using RBS-WBS matri x;They are classified into systemic risk and non-systematic risk factors in the 15 syst emic risk and 36 non-systemic risk according to whether the risk factors have irrevers ible attributes;Analyzing in detail the BT project risk factors and the corresponding at tribution of the target,the main producer is not the project participants responsible for the object but project's external environment if the BT project systemic risk factors a re force majeure risk;The project non-systemic risk factors are resilient risk,which o ccurred in the project operation process,its object of responsibility is mainly the rele vant specific person in charge with the BT project specific construction procedures,s uch as project investors,project companies and related construction side.Therefore,we should focus on the project system risk factors in the actual discussion about BT p roject risk sharing.(2)The method of matter-element extension to is used in risk evaluation.Firstly,the BT project risk evaluation index system is constructed to compare the advantages and disadvantages.Combined with the uncertainty and fuzziness of the BT project risk evaluation index,according to the matter-element extension theory,the risk model is established by using the set value statistics to quantify the risk and the risk evaluation model based on matter-element extension model is established.And then the empirical analysis is used to determine the BT project system risk level and the level of risk indicators and verify the material-element extension model in the BT project in the practicality and rationality.The evaluation of the BT project participants in the interests of the main Risk control and risk sharing are of value.(3)The risk-sharing game model of the participants(government and investment company)is constructed with different risk attitudes under the condition of complete information.Firstly,the process of bargaining between the government and the investment company on risk sharing is analyzed and obtain the optimal risk-sharing ratio between the two parties in the case of indefinite bargaining.And then the risk attitudes of the government and the investment company are described,and the appropriate utility function is constructed by selecting the risk aversion coefficient and the expected utility is solved by using the deterministic equivalence principle.At last,the model is solved and the actual case analysis is carried out.The relationship between the risk attitude of government and investment company and the proportion of risk sharing is obtained.(4)The risk-sharing game model of the participants(government and investment company)is constructed with different risk attitudes under the condition of incomplete information.Firstly,the process of bargaining between government and investment companies under incomplete information is analyzed and obtain the optimal risk sharing ratio in the indefinite bargaining game,By choosing the appropriate utility function to describe the risk attitude of the government and the investment company,the risk sharing game model under the incomplete information is solved,we can get the risk sharing ratio and the participant's risk attitude Relationship.(5)The game proccess of risk sharing of BT project participants(government and investment companies)with bounded rationality is analyzed.The discount factors of participation,the jealousy of government and the impact of the risk allocation ratio are discussed in both the incomplete information,which combined with the actual case into the value of the analysis and verification.Based on the identification,definition and analysis of the risk factors in the BT project,this paper constructs the risk assessment model using the element-element extension method.Combining the bargaining game theory,the risk preference factor and the bounded rationality theory,this paper constructs the BT project sharing model under the complete information condition and the condition of incomplete information.The BT project sharing model provides a new idea for the theoretical research of BT project risk sharing.It has certain theoretical value.At the same time,combining theory with practice,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the constructed model.This paper provides a useful reference to solve the actual risk sharing problem.It has a certain practical significance. |
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