The Research On The Relationship Between Industrial Structure Change And Business Cycle Fluctuation

Economic development is essentially a process of continuous innovation and structural change in technology and industry.However,the lack of effective demand in the long term and the structural problems of the industry make the Chinese economy to seek economic growth point through investment and foreign trade.Since 2008,by the global financial crisis and the impact of the European debt crisis,the world economy is facing a severe test,China's macro economy to maintain a high growth rate at the same time,economic fluctuations have increased.Macroeconomic fluctuations on China's ability to break through the bottleneck of economic growth presents a serious challenge,the structural imbalance of resources mismatch can not be ignored.At present,China's economy is in a growth phase shift,structural adjustment and pre stimulus period to stimulate the digestion period of the three phase superimposed stage.Although China's domestic demand has recently stabilized signs,but from the overall point of view,its economic growth rate is still downside risks.Therefore,a profound understanding of the relationship between industrial structure change and business cycle fluctuations,reduce the volatility of the economy in the process of the transition and upgrading of industrial structure,completed the evolution and upgrading of the industrial structure in the economic cycle,realize the economy healthy and stable growth and sustainable development is of great significance.In combing industrial structure change and economic growth,fluctuations in the economic cycle,correlation,based on historical facts since the reform and opening up of China's industrial structure change and economic growth,fluctuations in the economic cycle,using annual data of national and provincial,district(city),using dynamic panel methods,through the Granger causality test,VAR model from the perspective of empirical analysis of the relationship between industrial structure change and economic growth,fluctuations in the economic cycle,and under the background of supply side reforms,from input output perspective to explore the relationship between feature association in industrial structure and economic fluctuation in China.Through the above analysis,we got the following conclusion:(1)From the point of view of the country as a whole,in the short-term,there is from the industrial structure change to economic growth and economic growth to changes in the industrial structure of a two-way causal relationship,a longer period of time exists only single causality from economic growth to changes in the industrial structure;from the point of view of the provincial level,the relationship between the industrial structure change and economic growth showed considerable heterogeneity,both the existence of industrial structure change and economic growth of the interaction between causal relationship,the former to the latter and the latter to the formar one-way causal relationship also exists,but many existing economic growth to changes in the industrial structure of one-way Granger causality.This accords with the economic theory and the actual situation in China.And local government leaders during their terms related to the short-term goal of,during his term of office tend to outstanding achievement based on the factor endowment structure of short,flat,fast project,in promoting the local economic growth and industrial structure has also been adjusted.Industrial development has led to the development of other industries,which in turn promotes economic growth.Due to the differences in factor endowments between provinces(including the system,etc.),the imbalance of regional economic development leads to a certain difference in the relationship between the two.Usually case around in the current session of the National People's Congress report on the work of the government for this year's economic growth set a goal,accounted for the ratio is also put forward clear requirements of the three industrial structure in general.Based on the total annual growth target to determine the industry growth rate,and take the corresponding policies and measures to achieve a goal,so more there is one-way Granger causality of economic growth to changes in the industrial structure.(2)The relationship between industrial structure change and business cycle fluctuation,from the point of view of the whole,in the short-term,there is economic fluctuation to the change of industrial structure and the industrial structure change to economic fluctuations in a two-way Granger causality.In the long run,there is only fluctuations in the economy to changes in the industrial structure of one-way Granger causality.Since the reform and opening up,China's economy gradually transition to the market economy system,make the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources,in different sectors of the industry,because of the differences in the marginal productivity of resources,resource transfer to the higher departments from low productivity sectors,to significantly bring huge benefits of resource allocation,so as to drive the total achieve growth at a higher level,economic fluctuation will lead to changes in market participants to expect in the future,and through market channels indirectly adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure.At the same time in the funds and manpower can be relatively free flowing and economic shocks in the short term and long term about the market expected,the backward industries and industry will face elimination,released free labor,capital and land factors of production will is shifted to more investment value of the field,to promote the new technology revolution and the industrial revolution,and promote the adjustment of industrial structure.(3)There is a mutual influence between the asymmetry of industrial scale and economic fluctuation.The correlation between different characteristics of industrial development,industrial transfer to the overall economy,extensive contacts and the relative importance of specific industry and other industries decided this industry plays a significant role in the overall economy,could significantly promote the development and changes in the overall economy;industrial scale structure at the same time by between industrial policy and industrial structure of factor endowment as a result of differences appear to be highly asymmetric,due to differences in the level of industrial technology and product structure,function of each industry sector productivity shocks on economic fluctuation also showed obvious heterogeneity,this asymmetry is not only easy to form fluctuation,also makes the fluctuation attenuation slower in the conduction process,direct and indirect through the contact between departments,eventually rising to the overall level of economy;economic fluctuation is not with the department of industry department subdivision and completely offset,the formation and decay of industry sector volatility depends on the degree of asymmetry in the distribution of industrial structure and the number of large sectors.