| Project governance is the process of providing objectives,resources and institutional environment for project management,which aims at ensuring project stakeholders’ stable and requested behaviors.Project governance risk means the probability,impact and manageable degree of stakeholders’ behaviors.The stakeholders and relationships between them inform the project governance network in organization dimension,and this network will affect stakeholders’ behaviors.So the project governance network could be used to analyze the probability and manageable degree of stakeholders’ uncertain behaviors.Meanwhile,stakeholders’ behaviors act on the risk factors in task dimension,so the level of risk factors can represent the impact of stakeholders’ behaviors.Hence,it is necessary to consider the organization dimension and task dimension in the analysis and control of project governance risk.However,the existing analysis methods for project governance risk are restricted to one of the two dimensions.SNA(Social Network Analysis),which is the representative method in organization dimension,describes the relationships between nodes through constructing conceptual network structural model.SNA quantitatively evaluates the network statically,and then raises risk control strategies according to the evaluation results.But the governance network in organization dimension is dynamic due to the risk factor in task dimension as the project forward.SNA which evaluates statically doesn’t meet the dynamic characteristic of project governance network,and couldn’t analyze the variational risk factors in task dimension.As a result,SNA can’t evaluate the impact of stakeholders’ uncertain behaviors.At the same time,SD(System Dynamics),which is the representative method in task dimension and is able to explore the causality and evolution process of factors in system,can analyze the variational risk factors in project lifecycle and present risk control strategies according to the Sensitivity Analysis about risk factors.While,SD can’t construct the project governance network efficiently,so it can’t match the risk control roles with the corresponding stakeholders.As a result,the implement of control strategy is not based on an effective organization and SD can’t analyze the manageable degree of stakeholders’ uncertain behaviors.It is visible that the existing analysis methods for project governance risk mainly put particular emphasis on organization dimension or task dimension,and can’t analyze the probability,impact and manageable degree of stakeholders’ uncertain behaviors as a whole.There is a need to put forward a new governance risk analysis method to synthesize the two dimensions.This study proposed the Network Dynamic Analysis(NDA)by combining SNA and SD.NDA integrates organization dimension and task dimension by considering the project governance network and risk factors together.So it can improve the accuracy of risk analysis and the effectiveness of risk control.The implementation of NDA needs to solve several basic problems,including concept,principle,analysis tool and application process.Firstly,review,define and refine the relevant concepts to lay the concept foundation for NDA.Secondly,explore the factors,construction and dynamic process of project governance network to explain the basic principle of NDA.Thirdly,design algorithm and write programs to provide mathematical analysis tools for NDA.At last,design the governance risk decision-support process of NDA and apply it to collaborative innovation project.The mainly research contents contains the following sections.(1)Explanation of basic conceptsBased on the review of existing research and analysis of the characteristics of NDA,this study discussed the concepts of project governance and project governance risk.In the analysis of project governance,this study refined the meaning of project governance based on the perspective of combing "network" and "dynamic",which is same with the characteristics of NDA.Specifically,project governance including the implications:in the stage of project establishing,setting the overall project objectives and means of attaining the objectives,and construct and adjust the initial governance network,and set the phased governance network adjustment rules in project process;in the stage of project execution,constantly clear and adjust the specific project objectives and means.In the analysis of project governance risk,this study chose "the probability,impact and manageable degree of stakeholders’ uncertain behaviors" as the concept of governance risk from the perspective of "people" that can reflect the value of management and the characteristics of project better,and defined stakeholder behavior as "a series of activities about the control of project risk factors" based on the uniqueness and temporary characteristics of project.(2)Analysis and construction of project governance networkThis part consists of analysis of network elements and method of network construction,and the former is the premise of the latter.The network relationship classification and network node definition were discussed in the network elements analysis part.As the project governance network affects the behavior of the stakeholders,this study classified the network relationship based on the factors impacting on stakeholder behavior.First,this study summarized the dimensions of relationship in the existing research through the literature analysis method,and explored the influencing factors of the stakeholder behavior.The network relationship classification was completed by correlating risk factors and different dimensions of network relationship,and ultimately the network relationship is divided into communication relationship and control relationship.Accordingly,the project governance network was divided into communication network and control network.As for nodes,there are different "granularity" nodes in the governance network,such as enterprise,department,team,individual.So the definition of node granularity is the prerequisite for transforming real stakeholders into governance network nodes.Based on the SNA hypothesis--"node have stable pertinence between stimulus and response",a node definition rule is proposed by combining the result of relationship classification.The rule is "the stakeholder whose internal information transmission is effective and internal goal is unified can be regarded as a network node".If the stakeholder is not meet the rule,split it and repeat the split process until the new stakeholder meet the rule.Project governance network nodes and relationships are all related to risk factors,so the formation of project governance network relies on risk factors.Accordingly,a governance network construction method is designed.The steps of construction method are as follows.First,construct the risk breakdown structure and identify the stakeholder’s role to recognize the stakeholders and then define the network nodes based on the definition rule.Then,analyze the communication relationship and control relationship between the nodes to identify the network relationships.Last,quantify the relationships by the decision process of relationship strength promoted in this study,which is based on the Best-Worst Method(BWM)(3)Dynamic process of project governance networkThis part analyzed the logical relationships among project governance network,stakeholder behavior,and risk factors to explore the dynamic process of project governance network.1)The impact of stakeholder behavior on risk factorsThe existing research divides the project governance role into four categories:planning,operation,maintenance and supervision.Accordingly,This study divided the stakeholder behavior and explores the relationships between different behaviors,behaviors and risk factors.The consistency degree of stakeholder behavior and governance subject behavior was taken as the evaluation index of stakeholder behavior.The mean and standard deviation of distribution function ware taken as the analysis indexes of risk factor,and the mathematical relationship between two kinds of index was established.2)The impact of risk factors on governance networkThe high level of risk factors will cause the adjustment of the governance network by stakeholders.According to the adjustment time,the network adjustment can be divided into the initial governance network adjustment and the phased governance network adjustment.This study analyzed the process of adjusting the initial governance network and setting the rules of phased governance network adjustment by governance subject,and explored the process that the stakeholders adjust the phased project governance network based on the risk factor level and the network adjustment rule in the project lifecycle.3)The impact of governance network on stakeholder behaviorThe communication network and control network are quantified by network density,node’s distance and average of network distance,and the mathematical relationship between the above indexes and stakeholder behavior evaluation indexes was established.(4)Simulation algorithm of project governance network dynamic processThis part provided the mathematical analysis tool for NDA through the design,implementation and test of the algorithm.Firstly,based on the concept of governance,the analysis of network elements and the mechanism of network dynamic process,confirmed basic assumptions of algorithm which are the basis of algorithm structure design,key variable value analysis and algorithm test.Secondly,designed algorithm structure according to the mechanism of network dynamic process,and then analyzed different modules’ functions and the data transmission relationship between modules in algorithm structure;and then designed the specific algorithm flow.Thirdly,wrote the program by Matlab according to the algorithm flow.The program troubleshooting,program speed improvement,input and output modularity and other issues were resolved in the process of program writing.Meanwhile,analyzed the value of key variables and showed the operation process of the algorithm program through a example.Finally,the algorithm was tested by referring to the SD model test methods,including algorithm behavior test,extreme case test and sensitivity test.(5)Case applicationThis study selected the collaborative innovation project of the Industrial Technology Research Institute with high governance risk as the case.Designed NDA’s decision-support process in governance risk control,and then analyzed the case according to the process.The application processes of NDA ware as follows:Firstly,the communication network and control network were obtained based on the governance network construction method and the value of other variables were obtained.Secondly,the risk control strategies were designed by adjusting the project governance network,and the effect and cost of the strategies were analyzed by simulation.And then the "satisfaction" strategy according to the risk threshold decided by governance subject was determined.Finally summarized the problems in NDA case application process and put forward the corresponding improvement measures.The innovations of this dissertation mainly contain the three aspects as listed below.(1)It proposed NDA method for analysis and control of project governance risk.There is a need to synthesize the organization and task dimensions to analyze and control governance risk.However,SNA,which is the representative method in organization dimension and SD,which is the representative method in task dimension are limited to a single dimension,which affects the accuracy of governance risk analysis and the effectiveness of the risk control.Based on the network analysis ability of SNA and risk factors dynamic analysis ability of SD,this study put forward the NDA method,which provides a new and more effective mathematical analysis method for project governance risk research.(2)It expanded and refined the concept of project governance based on the perspective of combining "network" and "dynamic".NDA method has the characteristics of "network" and "dynamic".Although the existing research has defined the concept of project governance from "network" and "dynamic" respectively,it has not effectively combined the two perspectives.Therefore,this study combined the perspectives above to expand and refine the existing concept of project governance,provided a conceptual basis for the realization of NDA and enriched the project governance theory.(3)It designed a network construction method for the particularity of project governance network.The project governance network has multi-level nodes and is related to risk factors.The existing network construction methods such as "snowball"method do not match the above characteristics,thus affect the accuracy and efficiency of network construction.Therefore,this study designed the network construction method for the particularity of project management network.The NDA method proposed in this study provides a new way of thinking and mathematical analysis for the theoretical research of project governance risk and is able to provide support for the governance risk control in practice.The expansion of governance concept and the classification of governance network relationships enrich the project governance theory.Network node definition rule and governance network construction method improve the applicability of SNA.This study still has some limitations and aspects worth further research.The classification of network relationships through literature analysis and deductive reasoning has not been verified based on empirical research.In network adjustment,intensity of node relationship is mainly analyzed,while the change of relationship direction and the change of node ware not considered. |
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