Numerical Simulation On The Macroeconomic Impact Caused By China's Energy Import Policy

Energy is an important material basis for economic growth and social development.Since the reform and opening,with China's rapid economic growth,the size of the economy continues to expand,which causes the rapid increase in energy consumption.However,delicate problems like "short of petroleum and gas",lack of endowment,high development cost lead to the widening the gap between supply and demand of the energy and a dramatic increase of net energy import year by year.On the other hand,along with the process of economic globalization,regional economic cooperation in energy is increasingly close.We witness a continuous decline of import tariff rate for energy.This paper analyzes the energy import policy from the "price" and "quantity" to illustrate the energy import tariff policy and net energy import policy.As for the numerical simulation on macroeconomic impact based on the building of a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,this paper emphasizes on the tariff system,production,income and consumption.On the base of the quantitative simulation analysis,the paper elaborated the optimized range of energy import tariff rates and the optimized quantity range of net energy import.To study the macroeconomic impact caused by energy import policy,based on the comparative advantage theory,economic growth theory and general equilibrium theory,this paper established a new general equilibrium model comprising production and consumption which considers not only the labor input and the capital investment,but also added energy input as a productive factor.Then we employed the 2010 national statistical data to calibrate to parameters in the model.By setting 2010 as the benchmark equilibrium,we analyzed the energy policies on import tariff rate and net trade quantity.By the comparison of equilibrium,we get the following important conclusion:In the case of Cobb-Douglas production function,if we set the wage level of first industry to 1,and the energy tariff with a certain range,if the current tariff rate is moderately reduced and net energy import appropriately increase,it may contribute to the shift of the capital,labor and energy input(and hence output)from the primary and secondary sector into the tertiary sector,thus to promote the development of the tertiary sector,which is beneficial to China's economic development and industrial structure transformation.A moderately reduce of the current tariff rate will have a significant impact in reducing China's trade surplus.An appropriate increase in net energy imports controlled in a certain range will also have a positive impact on the adjustment of industrial structure and the decrease of trade surplus.In this model,we set deliberately the impact of energy net import quantity on the social welfare to negative,yet in the actual conclusion of equilibrium,the reduced utility value caused by an increase in energy net import is far less than the increased utility value caused by commodity consumption in each industry.The negative impact on social welfare caused by the increase of net energy import does not have an evolution trend in the utility function value,but have a inhibition to the its growth.In order to ensure the robustness of the energy tariffs game model,this paper performed a sensitivity analysis on the CES on production function elasticity of substitution and CES on utility function elasticity of substitution.Our result shows that energy tariff income and total social income are not affected to these two functions.Tertiary industry output,commodity consumption of each industry and social welfare are only affected to the change of utility function elasticity of substitution.The production output,labor input,capital investment,investment in energy,the income of commodities import tariff and merchandise trade balance and the commodity net trade in primary industry together with the commodity net trade in second industry are extremely sensitive to the change of production function elasticity of substitution while relatively insensitive to the change of utility function elasticity of substitution.Finally,based on the framework of our model and the conclusion,this paper proposes a series of policy recommendations including a moderate regulatory on energy import policy,a coordinated development between energy import and environmental protection and a reinforcement of international cooperation on energy.