Research On The Dislocation Development Of Trade And Industrial Structures In Russia

Under the background of economic globalization, whether the foreign trade structure and industrial structure are in harmonious development has become the key issue in the economic field of various countries. Based on the comparative advantage formed by abundant natural resources, Russia participates in international division of labor and it obtains the objective condition supporting high-speed economic growth by virtue of energy resource export, such as petroleum and natural gas, etc. However, the economic development mode supported by this trade structure is fragile, which indicates that, the malformed industrial structure and single import as well as export trade structure have changed into the most prominent problems in Russian economic development since its transition. Particularly in post-crisis area when Russia was facing the pressure of promoting industrial competitiveness and changing trade mode. Therefore, in new international division of labor, the upgrading and optimization of industrial structure are two "chronic diseases" that need to be solved urgently in Russia.By taking the dislocation of trade and industrial structures in Russia as research object, this article analyzed its manifestation pattern based on previous researches; meanwhile, on the foundation of empirical test, it analyzed the causes of dislocation, reached the conclusion that the dislocation has been existed for a long time, and proposed corresponding suggestions. This article contains 7 chapters, among which Chapter I is introduction, Chapter II to VI is the main body and Chapter VII is the conclusion and enlightenment. The main contents are as follows:Chapter I is introduction, which introduces the background of topic selection, research significance, literature review and evaluation, research thinking and method, innovation and shortcomings.Chapter II is the theoretical analysis of dislocation development of trade and industrial structures in Russia. From the perspectives of trade structure evolution theory, industrial structure evolution theory and theory of structural evolution mode, this part arguments the theoretical foundation of dislocation development of trade and industrial structures in Russia, and gives an overview of the advanced as well as backward dislocation between trade structure and industrial structure.Chapter III is the realistic analysis of dislocation development of trade and industrial structures in Russia. Based on sorting the evolution progress of trade and industrial structures in Russia, it summarizes 4 kinds dislocation manifestations of trade and industrial structures, including that the decisive action of industrial structure on foreign trade structure in Russia is weak, foreign trade structure does not reflect the industrial competitiveness in Russia, there is proportional deviation in trade structure and industrial structure, and optimization of industrial stricture presentation does not improve trade condition.Chapter IV is the empirical analysis of dislocation development of trade and industrial structures in Russia. According to the sorting of evolution progress of trade structure evolution and industrial structure upgrading in Russia made in above chapter, it can be known that, there is dislocation relationship between these two. Whether these two are in correlation, what is the degree? By means of cointegration theory in econometrics, Granger causality test and impulse response, it implements empirical analysis on the relationship between trade structural change and industrial structural variation. The analytical structure again verifies that the import and export trade structure and industrial structure in Russia failed to form benign interaction, which means that they are in dislocation development.Chapter V is the analysis of causes of dislocation development of trade and industrial structures in Russia. Although the trade structure based on energy and raw material in Russia played its resource advantages and is in accordance with principle of comparative advantage, driven by static interest, this trade structure definitely will run counter to Russia domestic industrial structural upgrading. This chapter mainly analyzes from the aspects of restriction of natural resources, malformed guidance of foreign trade policy and industrial policy, unsound action mechanism of trade structure on industrial structure, and urgent demand of accumulation of capital development.Chapter VI is the outlook for the benign interaction between trade structure and industrial structure in Russia. Due to the single and malformed industrial structure, to improve the dislocation relationship and realize benign interaction is the inevitable and urgent choice for Russia. This chapter firstly discusses about the basic principle of promoting the benign interaction of trade and industrial structures in Russia, and then makes an outlook of the prospect of benign interaction.Chapter VII is the conclusion and enlightenment of this research. There is certain chronicity in dislocation phenomenon of trade and industrial structures. Viewed from Russian strategic selection for solving the dislocation of trade structure and industrial structure, innovative development is the only way, reform of economic system is the basic power, and positive guidance of industrial policy is the important means. Accordingly, China also is the emerging market economy country, so there are many similarities in trade growth pattern and trade structure between these two countries; the experience and lesson of optimizing interaction between trade structure and industrial structure in Russia play significant meaning to China.