| With the rise of the economy,China's demand for international institutional discourse power is increasing day by day,The Initiative of" The Belt and Road " is not only to expand the strategic deployment of opening to the outside world for China,but also is "the China Program" to promote world trade and investment liberalization and improve the level of global economic governance,and it will provide a new impetus for the growth of the world economy.In the construction process of "The Belt and Road",the cooperation of economic and trade is the cornerstone,and output influence to the world is the ultimate goal.From a deeper perspective,while promoting cooperation between China and the countries along " The Belt and Road " to expand trade volume in goods,investment and trade in services,etc.,the idea of open and inclusive from the avocations of" The Belt and Road " can unite developing countries to compete with developed countries,and it not only helps to eliminate a "China Threat"theory,but also to safeguard the geopolitical interests and economic interests of our country in the surrounding areas.It is committed to building a political and economic alliance with China as its axis,and supports China from a regional power to a world power.Under this background,as the intersection of "the Silk Road Economic Belt" and"the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road",GCC has become the key step in strategic arrangement of "The Belt and Road".Once China and GCC have successfully signed a free trade agreement,it will not only bring trade growth to the two sides,and create substantial economic benefits,but also become a milepost in the process of carrying out "The Belt and Road" initiative,and it is of great strategic significance.The research topic of this paper is the trade effect of China-GCC FTA.It aims to explore the practical significance and far-reaching impact of China-GCC FTA from the perspective of economics.First,this paper analyzes the economic base of the establishment of China-GCC FTA,and taps the comparative advantage and competitive advantage of both sides;Second,it estimates the trade potential of China-GCC FTA,and simulates the trade effects of China-GCC FTA,and analyzes the dynamic effects and non-traditional gains in depth;Third,it comprehensively elaborates the factors that affect the trade effect of China-GCC FTA,and further puts forward suggestions to promote the construction of China-GCC FTA.The full text is divided into nine chapters.The first chapter is the introduction.It describes the research background and research significance,introduces the research ideas and research framework,and explains the research methods,innovation points and deficiencies.The second chapter is the theoretical basis of China-GCC FTA's trade effect,introduces the connotation and classification of regional economic integration,analyzes the trade effects of Customs Union and FTA from the theoretical perspective,elaborates the development of theories on regional economic integration,and reviews the research methods of the trade effects of FTA.The third chapter is the negotiation process and motivation analysis of China-GCC FTA.It discusses the background and ideas to accelerate the promotion of China-GCC FTA,analyzes the negotiation process and the reasons for the suspension,and makes a comprehensive exposition of the reasons for the resumption of negotiations.The fourth chapter discusses the economic base of the establishment of China-GCC FTA.First,it analyzes the current situation and trend of international trade of China and GCC,points out the position of China and GCC in global trade,and analyzes the opening degree of foreign trade of the two sides;Second,in the overall analysis of the trade scale of China and GCC,it further explains the trade intensity index;Third,it analyzes the trade structure of China and GCC,and then uses the export similarity index,the trade complementarity index and the trade combined degrees to analyze the competitiveness and complementarity of the trade structure;Fourth,it expounds the current situation of FDI and OFDI of China and GCC respectively,and then analyzes the investment flows and Investment stock from China to GCC,the actual use of the GCC OFDI,the amount of completed projects of GCC contracted by Chinese companies.The fifth chapter analyzes the change of comparative advantage and competitive advantage of the bilateral trade between China and GCC.First,it uses revealed comparative advantage index to analyze the industries and products with comparative advantage of China and GCC;Second,it uses the trade specialization index to analyze the industries and products with competitive advantage of China and GCC;Third,it uses the G-L index to calculate the level of intra-industry trade,and induces the conclusion that the main trade between the two sides is the inter-industry trade and the intra-industry trade is less.The sixth chapter comprehensively analyzes the trade effect of China-GCC FTA.First,it estimates the trade potential of China-GCC FTA based on Gravity Model;Second,it uses the SMART model to explore the trade effects of tariff reduction from the three stages of the short,medium and long term,and estimates the economic welfare changes;Third,it describes the dynamic effects of China-GCC FTA,including investment effect,economic growth effect,competition effect and economies of scale,etc.;Fourth,it analyzes the non-traditional gains of China-GCC FTA.In the seventh chapter,it analyzes the influence factors of the trade effect of China-GCC FTA.It summarizes the four factors in the political aspect,including sectarian struggle,great power game,rampant terrorism and geopolitical struggle;In the economic aspect,it summarizes three factors,including that the cooperation in petrochemical industry between China and GCC is critical,the substantial economic benefits of China is uncertainty,the economic structure and institution of GCC has limitations;At the same time,it discusses the influence factors in the cultural aspects.In the eighth chapter,it puts forward the strategy of promoting the construction of China-GCC FTA.First,it shows that the new generation of international trade and investment rules proposes high requirements on the construction of China-GCC FTA;Second,it puts forward specific proposals for the construction of China-GCC FTA in order to ensure that the trade effect of China-GCC FTA will achieve the desired results.In the ninth chapter,it summarizes the conclusions of the whole paper and points out the problems that need further research.The main conclusions of this paper can be summarized as the following four aspects:1 The establishment of China-GCC FTA has a good economic base.The economic base of China-GCC FTA is good.They have their own competitive advantages in the industry,and economic complementarity is also good.In the overall trade situation,China has become the world's largest country in the field of goods trade,its total trade has accounted for more than 1/10 of global trade in a year.The GCC has obvious characteristics of energy export economy,and it produces a large amount of trade surplus through a large number of exports of oil and petrochemical products.From the perspective of foreign trade openness,there is a clear upward trend,maintaining a high growth rate.From the trade scale,the bilateral trade volume between China and GCC accounted for the proportion of China's total foreign trade has an obvious increasing trend,and their trade continues to expand the scale while trade deficit is serious.By using the trade intensity index,on the one hand,the conclusion shows that the China's export is a slightly weaker dependence on the market of GCC;on the other hand,the conclusion shows that the export of GCC is a gradually increasing dependence on the China's market.From the trade structure,the imports from GCC to China is mainly the primary products,accounted for more than 80%.The exports from China to GCC is mainly the manufactured goods,accounted for more than 90%.The structure of bilateral trade between China and GCC is very stable.In terms of export similarity index,the index about China and GCC in the EU market is low,and there is little similarity of export products.In the trade complementarity index,the index from China to GCC(China is the exporter)has a growth trend,the index from GCC to China(GCC is the exporter)has a relatively stable performance.The trade complementarity between China and GCC has an obvious growth trend.In the trade combined degrees,the index shows that the relation between China's export and GCC's market is close,and the relation between GCC's export and China's market is relatively weaker,but it is increasing.From the perspective of bilateral investment,the OFDI amount from China to GCC is increasing,but accounted for a slight decline in the proportion of global total amount.From the actual use of the FDI from GCC to China,the scale is very small.If they can overcome the current obstacles,the two sides will have a huge space for development.From the turnover of projects contracted by China's companies in GCC,the scale continues to expand,and it has become a new bright spot in the fields of economic and trade cooperation.2 China and GCC have their own competitive advantage in the industry and their trade is mainly inter-industry trade.In the bilateral trade between China and GCC,they each have the different competitive advantage in the industry,and the main body of the trade is inter-industry trade.First,this paper uses RCA index to measure the comparative advantage of China and GCC.The index of China's labor-intensive products is high,the index of capital and technology intensive products is steadily improve,and the index of resource-intensive product is low;The index of GCC's labor-intensive products is low,the index of capital and technology intensive products has been in a low position,and the index of resource-intensive product is high.In China's top ten products with largest index,labor-intensive products occupy the majority position,while the proportion of capital and technology intensive products is steadily increasing;The China's last ten products with smallest index are mainly composed of resource-intensive products.It shows that China's comparative advantage embodies in labor-intensive products,and some ofcapital and technology intensive products begin to be competitive.In GCC's top ten products with largest index,the majority position are occupied by oil and gas,mineral resources and its industrial products;The GCC's last ten products with smallest index are reflected in the daily necessities,rare earth minerals,industrial manufactured goods etc.This shows that the comparative advantage of GCC is mainly reflected in the aspects of oil and gas and petrochemical products.Its industrial structure is relatively simple.Second,this paper uses trade specialization index to analyze the competitive advantage of China and GCC which created by the specialization division of labor.To China,the index of resource-intensive products is low,the index of capital and technology intensive products is rising,and the index of labor-intensive products is high;To GCC,the index of resource-intensive products is high,the index of capital and technology intensive products rises by a limited range,and the index of labor-intensive products is quite low.The China's top ten products with largest index are mainly composed of labor-intensive products,followed by resource-intensive products which occupy a certain proportion,while the proportion of capital and technology intensive products is relatively small;The China's last ten products with smallest index are mainly composed of resource-intensive products,while a small amount of capital and technology intensive products begin to appear.This shows that China's competitive advantage in low value-added products is consolidated,while beginning to cultivate high value-added products.The GCC's top ten products with largest index are mainly composed by resource-intensive products,and in capital and technology intensive products,only petrochemical products appear;The GCC's last ten products with smallest index are evenly distributed in resource-intensive products,labor-intensive products and capital and technology intensive products.This shows that the GCC's products are basically rely on imports in addition that oil and gas and petrochemical products have competitive advantage.Third,in the level of intra-industry trade analysis,either from the overall industrial products,or from the main products of bilateral trade,the G-L index is low.This shows that China and GCC have comparative advantage or competitive advantage in different industries,while the level of intra-industry trade is relatively low,and inter-industry trade occupies the dominant position.3 China-GCC FTA has a certain trade potential,but dynamic effects and non-traditional gains attract more attention.The establishment of China-GCC FTA will release some trade potential,but dynamic effects and non-traditional gains are more concerned.First,gravity model confirms that the bilateral trade between China and GCC exists "trade shortage"phenomenon,then trade potential can be further excavated.Through the SMART model calculation,on the one hand,we can see that with the deepening of the China-GCC FTA tariff cuts,they will play their respective competitive advantage,realize the trade creation effect while trade diversion effect will also be expanded,and the total trade effect is rising.The industries of China which will expand import scale are mainly concentrated in petrochemical products and plastics,rubber products;The industries of GCC which will expand import scale are mainly concentrated in textile products,base metal products and machinery equipment etc.;On the other hand,with the reduction of tariff,the tariff revenue will decrease obviously,and the economic welfare will increase,but the increase of economic welfare is smaller than the loss of the tariff revenue.The total economic effect is negative.Therefore,the interests of China-GCC FTA are more reflected in the dynamic effects and non-traditional gains.Second,China-GCC FTA dynamic effects include the following aspects:(1)the investment effect,mainly in two aspects:capital flows between the member countries within China-GCC FTA;the capital of countries outside China-GCC FTA flows into the member countries.(2)the competitive effect.Through the introduction of external competitors into China-GCC FTA,let open forced reform,and prompt enterprises to improve operational efficiency;(3)the effect of economic scale.On the one hand,the products with competitive advantage will expand market share,and effectively reduce the marginal cost;on the other hand,it will create the conditions for the expansion of the market capacity to tap the market potential.(4)the economic growth effect.On the one hand,it will create conditions for the enterprises within China-GCC FTA to use the international knowledge stocks,and it is conducive to the development and production of new products;on the other hand,the system of division of labor in China-GCC FTA will be deepened,and the resources inside and outside China-GCC FTA will be attracted to the human resources department to promote the accumulation of human capital.Third,non-traditional gains are the parts of the core interests of the establishment of China-GCC FTA.They are embodied in the following aspects:the member countries of China-GCC FTA build closer political relations and consolidate the foundation of mutual trust;it will maintain the continuity of the policy of opening to the outside world and become an advocate and supporter of free trade;it will send a strong signal of free trade to the world,to overcome the current trend of trade protectionism,and promote the development of global trade;it will strengthen economic and trade cooperation through mutual benefit,improve the ability to resist risks,and bring demonstration effect of "The Belt and Road";it will enhance the bargaining power of both parties in international negotiations;it will call on free trade supporters and developing countries to form a coherent mechanism on international positions;it will build a more prosperous,more political mutual trust,more secure and stable surrounding environment.4 China-GCC FTA will be affected by political,economic and cultural factors.In order to ensure the full realization of the trade effects of China-GCC FTA,we need to have a comprehensive understanding of the factors.The political factors include:sectarian clashes between Sunnis and Shiites are intertwined in all Arabia States,and conflict may erupt at any time;the European Union,the United States,India and other countries have attached great importance to economic and trade cooperation with GCC,and great power game is very intense;rampant terrorism brings great harm;the relationship between religion,race and interest groups in the Middle East is complex,and the geopolitical struggle is fierce.The economic factors include:as a result of involving a country's economic security,whether petrochemical industry can eventually complete the industrial chain between China and GCC,and achieve efficient development,it will become one of the important factors;China's substantial economic returns are uncertain,such as the export potential of labor-intensive products is limited,the prices of imports of oil and gas are probably not a substantial decline,China's enterprises will be difficult to get involved in upstream exploration resources of oil and gas industry,the Chinese are in a competitive disadvantage in the labor market,etc.The limitations of the GCC economic system is relatively large,on the one hand,the single economic structure is congenitally deficient;on the other hand,the economic system is backward,the degree of standardization is low,and the investment environment is worrying.The cultural factors include:on the one hand,the cultural integration is the prerequisite for the integration of the global economy,we must grasp a moderate principle.In the premise of promoting the traditional Islamic culture,the GCC can be integrated into the global economic integration,otherwise the radical will lead to unrest,and procrastination will miss the opportunity.On the other hand,in order to avoid excessive impact on values,GCC use the "cultural exception" principle to protect Islamic culture in the economic and trade field.For the special demands of cultural products,the terms of China-GCC FTA should be designed to be more flexible in the context of "Islamic cultural exceptions".The research methods of this paper mainly include the following four aspects:1 A comprehensive use of empirical and normative analysis methods.Based on the theoretical analysis of the trade effects of China-GCC FTA,this paper uses various kinds of index analysis method and a large number of economic data to study the bilateral trade structure and their competitive and complementary situation.Then through empirical analysis method in two aspects of pre estimation and ex-post estimation,the paper forecasts the trade potential and trade effect.At the same time,this paper makes a value judgment on the situation of bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and GCC and their influencing factors,so as to provide a reliable strategic basis for the construction of China-GCC FTA to achieve the desired effect.2 This paper focuses on the switching between micro and macro analysis.In the micro aspect,this paper analyzes the comparative advantage and competitive advantage of each industry of China and GCC,and discusses the level of intra-industry trade;In the macro aspect,this paper gives a full description of the current trade pattern,trade relations and so on,that will help to fully understand the development potential and strategic significance of China-GCC FTA.3 The paper emphasizes the combination of historical and realistic analysis.The paper tries to find out the logical rules of the construction of China-GCC FTA from the historical method,and then access to a large number of official data to make charts to explain the realistic foundation of the bilateral economic and trade cooperation.The use of statistics and measurement tools will help us to understand the history of bilateral economic and trade cooperation,fully understand the reality and look forward to the development prospects.It emphasizes on the analysis method of combining history and reality,with the aim of making the objective accuracy of research,enhancing the persuasiveness and supporting the argument,in order to make the research more practical.4 A comprehensive comparison of vertical and horizontal analysis path.In order to give full play to the comparative research ideas in this paper and highlight the importance of theory and practice,the paper summarizes the theory of regional economic integration systematically,and describes the conditions for the construction of China-GCC FTA comprehensively.At the same time,to enhance the persuasive,this paper not only carried out the dynamic analysis from the vertical angle,and static analysis from the horizontal angle,in order to analyze the trade effects of China-GCC FTA more thoroughly.This will be conducive to a more valuable reference policy recommendations.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:1 The innovation of research content.The core content of this paper is the trade effect of China-GCC FTA.In this paper,we focus on the effect of trade creation and trade diversion on the static effect,and predict its future trade potential;This paper mainly discusses the investment effect,the economic growth effect,the competitive effect and the effect of economic scale on the dynamic effect;The innovation of this paper is to analyze the trade effects of China-GCC FTA from the perspective of non-traditional gains.It expands the content of research.2 The innovation of the empirical method.Based on the methods of pre estimation and ex-post estimation,this paper not only uses the gravity model to evaluate the trade potential of China-GCC FTA,but also uses the SMART model of World Bank to simulate the trade creation,trade diversion and welfare effect etc.By setting the short,medium and long-term three cases,the paper predicts the trade effect of China-GCC FTA comprehensively and systematically.It makes the whole study more scientific.3 The innovation in the conclusion.Through using various kinds of index analysis method,the paper shows that economic structure has good complementarity between China and GCC,but if China-GCC FTA is established,whether in the short term,medium term or long term,the benefits of economic welfare growth will be less than the loss of tariff revenue,andtotal economic effect will be negative.For both sides,the interests of China-GCC FTA will be more reflected in the dynamic effects and non-traditional gains. |
PDF Full Text Request