Research On Multiple-criteria Group Decision Making Methods In Uncertain Information Environment

China is now in a period with transition and strategic opportunities,and the new normal of economy and supply-side reform determine that enterprises,governments as well as countries are facing decision-making problems with more complexity and variability.While due to the lack of sufficient knowledge and experience,and the increase of unpredictability of future states,decision problems contain great uncertainty and risk.How to make objective and effective decisions under this environment has been a hot issue in the theoretical and practical circle.Multi-criteria group decision theory has made rapid development in the field of management decision,which is widely used in actual decision problems such as project evaluation,personnel evaluation,scientific research evaluation,supplier selection and enterprise performance evaluation.Due to the differences in subjective factors as knowledge structure,individual preferences and background of decision group,as well as the impact of complexity,fuzziness and uncertainty of real decision problems,how to develop effective and objective decision in uncertain environment has aroused wide attention and great interest of scholars at home and abroad,so uncertainty theories are brought into decision-making problem,and the construction of MCGDM models and methods becomes a hot point of the research.Therefore,based on the existing research,this paper brings fuzzy set theory and rough set theory into MCGDM problems to express the uncertainty of decision makers effectively,and establish a MCGDM research system by means of the advantages of fuzzy number and rough number in dealing with uncertainty problems.The main research contents and results are as follows.(1)Aiming at group decision problem in uncertain environment,this paper proposes group information aggregation methods from the perspective of triangular fuzzy number and rough number respectively.Aggregation method based on triangular fuzzy number builds a mathematical programming problem,with two objectives which are optimal distance and high similarity between individual evaluation and group evaluation.Aggregation method based on rough number is proposed according to the construction method of rough number,with fully considering the relationship between each individual decision maker,without the use of any prior knowledge.This method studies the internal relationship between individuals totally from subjective data,aggregates group decision information,and builds aggregative rough number.(2)Propose criteria weighting methods of MCGDM in uncertain environment based on three aspects of criterion scoring,judgment matrix and judgment vectors.Weighting method based on criteria scoring calculates criterion weights according to the subjective scores of relative importance of criteria coming from decision group.Weighting method based on judgment matrix comes from the idea of paired comparison,calculating criteria weights through building comparison matrix of each criterion.Weighting method based on judgment vectors derives from the idea of Best-Worst method,which compares criteria with the best criterion and the worst criterion rather than each criteria.It can obtain two judgment vectors and reduce the inconsistency of judgment matrix method.(3)Improve traditional evaluating methods as TOPSIS and VIKOR with fuzzy set theory and rough set theory in uncertain environment.From the aspect of fuzzy sets,this paper improves TOPSIS and VIKOR method based on triangular fuzzy number respectively.From the aspect of rough sets,rough TOPSIS and rough VIKOR are proposed based on rough number.These methods are all with the help of aggregation methods of triangular fuzzy number and rough number.A numerical example is introduced to explain the application of these methods,and illustrate the effectiveness and reliability of each method through comparison.New evaluating methods extend the scope of application in group decision problem,and improve the accuracy of sequencing and selecting of alternatives.(4)Aiming at MCGDM with decision makers' psychological behavior,this paper proposes MCGDM methods in uncertain environment based on prospect theory.Combining triangular fuzzy number and prospect theory,two methods are proposed aiming at two conditions where the expected values are exact numbers and triangular fuzzy numbers.Then a method based on rough number and prospect theory is proposed to solve behavior MCGDM.Lastly,to solve risky MCGDM problem,a new method is built based on rough number and prospect theory,which can handle the risk during decision process.(5)Construct a MCGDM model of distributors selecting problem with the application of methods proposed in this paper.Firstly the evaluation index system is determined from two dimensions which are core competitiveness and collaborative ability of distributors,and then select the appropriate weighting method to calculate weights of each indexes,and select the appropriate sequencing method to calculate scores of each alternatives.Lastly,evaluate the alternatives according to the results and select one as the optimal distributor.This study provides a new perspective and tool for MCGDM problems in uncertain environment,and develop the theory and method of MCGDM based on uncertain theory.