Study On Supply Side Reform And Development Path Of China Coal Industry

China has ample coal, less oil and gas resources, which determins the status of coal in China's energy consumption. Coal is an important base of energy and raw materials in China that has an important strategic position in the national economy. Within the primary energy structure of our country, coal will be the main energy source for a long time. But China has stressed energy production structure upgrading and further enhanced the consideration of climate changes in the environment. With the transformation and upgrading of China's economic development pattern the adjustment of energy consumption structure, the problem of China's coal industry reform is pushed to the front of the table. "The national energy development strategy action plan (2014-2020)" requests China's coal consumption as the proportion of primary energy to be capped fewer than 62% by 2020. In the "13th Five-Year" plan, it is ergaged to build a low-carbon, safe and efficient modern clean energy system in China. All these point to future development of the coal industry under the current state of "supply side" the reform guidelines."Supply side" reform of the coal industry is not just only about the supply, but also through the supply to affect the "demand side". In this paper, the supply side reform theory, industrial development and industrial organization theory, resource demand theories are used as guidline. Echoing the five major tasks raised by "supply side reforms" of the Central Committee, this paper discusses perspective of the overall energy supply and demand pattern of China's coal industry "supply side reforms". Based on research in China future coal demand and supply capacity, the future of China's coal production capacity and coal industry sustainable clean development path is explored by thinking out of the box. It provides a reasonable reference for future national coal industry development and policy making. Based on data like economic growth and energy consumption elasticity coefficient, consumption intensity, this paper used the elastic coefficient method and the departmental method to predict the demand trend of China coal sector in the next ten years.Giving the overall gradually declining trend and several key factors to be fufilled, it points out that the inflection point of the energy structure may come earlier by referring to the experience of developed countries and the energy substitution effect. From the angle of national endowment of resources and industrial development of mineral resources, a discounted cash flow method is used to carry out a systematic analysis on the overall supply capacity of the industry from the micro production and supply costs of the listed company data. It is pointed out that the overall task planning China's coal production and coal production capacity to seek diversified development of digestion and utilization is still relatively difficult in the next ten years.Finally, the paper discusses that the problem of coal is still a total demand and supply story, by using the factor decomposition model to reveal the relationship between the fluctuations of international energy prices and China's total energy demand. The capacity space for cutting production is given from prediction of the China coal supply and demand elasticity. With consideration of domestic and foreign energy supply, energy structure, carbon emission reduction and other factors on the coal industry in the post industrial era, possible ways of clean development path of the coal is discussed. The paper points out that moderate development of coal-based oil and etc could be one of the feasible path of transformation and upgrading of the coal industry under the supply side reforms background.