The Study On The Credit Risk Of The Local Government Financing Platform Loan

In order to cope with the global economic crisis, in 2008, China launched 4 trillion economic stimulus plan, the local government should be responsible for the financing of 2.82 trillion.In this feast policy, local government financing platform as the main financing entity of the local governments present ultra conventional growth. at the same time, local government financing platform loans explosive growth, the proportion of local government financing platform loans in total loans of commercial banks is also increasing.The growing loan of local government financing platform, as well as credit risk for local government finances and financial risks of kidnapping, causing concerns of the community. At present, although the state abolished the local government financing platform for the function of local government financing, with shell class companies' closure and entity companies' market transformation, the list of local government financing platform of CBRC will be gradually reduced. Since the implementation of list management on local government financing platform, local governments have set up many "hidden local government financing platform " coupled with the large number of market transformation platform company.This is part of the "hidden platform company" is still responsible for the functions of local public project construction financing, is still the main financing subject of public construction projects to bank loans, still had ties to the local government finance in source of repayment. Therefore, this paper argues that it is a significant issue to study the risk characteristics and influencing factors of local government financing platform loan,to explore the methods to carry on the risk measure,and to research on prevention and control of credit risk measures.The main contents are as follows:Chapter ? mainly expounds the significance of this study, domestic and international research status, as well as the innovations and difficulties of this paper.Chapter ? mainly expounds the theoretical basis of the research, including the theoretical basis of the government financing, public goods theory and the theory of fiscal decentralization, as well as the credit risk management theory.Chapter ? is an overview of local government financing platform. It expounds the connotation of local government financing platform, the historical evolution of local government financing platform.At the same time, the future development trend of local government financing platform is analyzed.Chapter IV analysis the platform loan credit risk influence factor and the measurement index. In this chapter, first, the reason for the geometric growth of the platform loan is attributed to four factors:the pressure, the excuse, the opportunity and the motive.Then, it analyzes the factors that influence the credit risk of local government financing platform loans from the three aspects of local government, the local government financing platform company and the bank. Finally, from the two aspects of local government finances and ocal government financing platform company financial situation, it puts forward a measure of credit risk of loan platform, provides a theoretical basis for analysis of the original variable chapter VI.Chapter V is the empirical study of the credit risk of local government financing platform based on Logit model. This chapter selects the relevant data of a state-owned commercial bank in 2012-2013, the local government financing platform loans as an example.We choose loan classification results as the dependent variable, and the financial data of the local government and the financing platform as independent variables.On the basis of this, the logit model is constructed to study the default risk of local government financing platform. The empirical study conclusion provides optimization ideas for commercial bank credit rating of the financing subject of local public project construction,and also pointed out the direction for commercial banks to prevent and control local government financing platform loan credit risk.chapterVI is the empirical research of credit risk of local government financing platform based on CCA model. This chapter selects 96 provincial local government financing platforma companies of a large commercial bank as the research object, the 2009-2014 financial data as the sample. The CCA model is applied to research the provincial local government financing platform companies default risk of change trend.ChapterVII is the main conclusions and policy suggestions. This chapter summarizes the study of the full text, and put forward the policy recommendations for the credit risk management of "hidden local government financing platform company " loan from the national macroscopic policy, supervision level and local government level and commercial banks. Finally it analyzes the insufficiency and the research prospect.