The Empirical Research Of The Factors For Local Government Financing Platform’s Bank Credit Risk

In recent years, local government financing platform play a major role in resisting financial crisis, infrastructure construction and upgrading industry. It is the important role of the financing platform company that ushering the explosive growth of financing platform. At the same time, companying with the development of the local government financing platform company, huge credit risk accumulate more and more because of the nonstandard management and other reasons. And it should cause the attention of party Banks, government and regulators.Firstly, this article research the concept, classification, the emergence and development process of the financing platform from the point of view of qualitative. And realize the particularity of the financing platform company’s function, status, attribute relative to the general business. Then, according to the current development status of platform company, this article presents the characteristics, and expounds the importance to research the platform company’s bank credit risk. Secondly, we introduced the concept of bank credit risk and the factors of general corporate credit risk. And aiming at the present special source of risk of platform company, combining the particularity of platform company, we analyzed the influencing factors of platform company bank credit risk. Lastly, we took some province’s platform as the example to make the empirical research.In empirical research, firstly, the article give the descriptive statistical analysis to the present condition of this province’s platform company credit, and combining with the above theory analysis of the factors affecting the platform company bank credit risk select13possible factors, such as the level of platform, platform risk attributes, the number of loan balance and the number of lenders. By correlation analysis, we make the preliminary screening on the index, and get eight indexes such as fiscal revenue, corporate governance structure is perfect or not, the platform company’s risk attributes. Then through the method of principal component analysis for dimension reduction processing, we get four risk comprehensive indexes, these are the company’s enterprise index, direct reimbursement ability index, indirect reimbursement ability index, debt structure rationality. Finally, the article set up the logistic regression model of the comprehensive risk index and default, get the quantitative relationship between the original risk index and default, so achieve the purpose to predict whether a platform company’s loan default will happen or not.