| "One Belt and One Road" strategy is critical strategy of China which is proposed by the President Xi when he visited Middle Asian and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The Purpose of "One Belt and One Road" strategy is to promote trade and investment facilitation. This strategy, combined with the deepen of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) to promote export trade technology structure and level, is the opportunity to be the solution path to boost the economical growth of China under the background of Economic new normal.After refering to recent studies from home and abroad, the export technical complexity is used as the index of the export technology structure and level, this dissertation focuses on the impact of outward foreign direct investment to export technical complexity based on the perspective of "One Belt and One Road" strategy. After combining theoretical basis and literature review, this dissertation first expatiates the related theories of international trade, OFDI, and "One Belt and One Road" strategy. The breaking point is found through the experience study from OFDI to the dissertation and thus contribute the research ideas and logic.Second, this dissertation analyzes the current situations of both OFDI and export technical complexity. In the part of OFDI, while the go global strategy of China deepens, not only the annual flow but also the accumulated stock steadily grows. By the wind of "One Belt and One Road", the both flow and stock of OFDI from China to other member of "One Belt and One Road" grows further. With the spread of "One Belt and One Road" strategy, the growth rate of OFDI from China to other member of "One Belt and One Road" rises rapidly, which implies the investment motivation of China is getting bigger and investment rate is getting inclined. The portion of OFDI from China to the developing or new emerging market countries in "one belt one road" members also goes up year from year. The financial objects such as capital revitalization, market occupancy, high-end products export, export structure optimization and the like, can be achieved when cooperate with the developing or new emerging market countries in "One Belt and One Road" members. In the part of target of industries of OFDI, efficient manufacturing industry, sustainable tertiary industry, and high-end industry are preferred to invest from OFDI of China. It is not hard to image that OFDI of China has ambitious historical mission, and may become the vital drive for the transformation and update of Chinese economy, industry, and export structure.In the part of target of export technology complexity, the merchandise export data of China to "One Belt and One Road" members is better the that of China to the rest of world, a point that is shown very clear in the rapid growth gross export value. After analyzing the gross export value, China has comparative advantages in the service trade export due to huge volume and rapid growth when compared with the others in "One Belt and One Road" and has a large distant when compared with developed countries. In the merchandise trade export, the value of China to other "One Belt and One Road" members grows steadily When combining the comparative advantages of all kinds of export products of China, the comparative advantages of capital-intensive and tech-intensive export goods from China are built step by step. The high-end manufacturing industry such as rail vehicle, electric accessory, aerobat, has a clear advantage in the 88 sample countries. The service trade export of China also has a clear advantage in transportation service, travel, construction and financial service. Specially, the construction service has a distinguish advantage under the view of "One Belt and One Road" strategy. Base one the survey of export technology complexity for "One Belt and One Road" members, the export technology complexity of both the service trade export and merchandise trade export in China is improving, which shows the export technology structure and level and export trade transformation and upgrading process are getting better.At last, based on the prospective study on the trade and investment effects of "One Belt and One Road" construction with using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this dissertation shows "One Belt and One Road" construction can enhance the growth rate of GDP, the total export-import volume and social welfare of the countries along "One Belt and One Road" to various degrees. Among them, China’s export trade will be promoted significantly which illustrates the export trade promotion effect of "One Belt and One Road" is obvious. The capital demand of the countries along "One Belt and One Road" is huge, while China’s OFDI still has certain funding gap compared to pressure test scenarios, both of which indicate that "One Belt and One Road" construction plays a promoting role to China’s OFDI. Prospective analysis shows that China’s total foreign trade and OFDI with the countries along "One Belt and One Road" will be on a rapid growth trend. In this framework of this scenario, researching on the impact of OFDI on export technical complexity will have a solid scientific basis and urgent realistic significance. On the other hand, based on transnational panel data with 87 countries, the empirical test shows China’s OFDI will promote export trade value and export technology complexity from "One Belt and One Road" perspective and has significant trade creation effect and trade structure effect. The empirical test also focuses on the positive role of the expansion of OFDI to export technical complexity based on transnational panel data with 88 countries, which provides the scientific evidences to the suggestions and research prospects. |
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