The Different Trade Effects Of China's FDI To Countries Along "One Belt And One Road"

In order to accommodate the vigorous development of the free trade area and various economic circles,to comply with the profound changes of international situation,to promote the economic factors orderly flow freely across the region,China,in November of 2013,formally confirmed the "One Belt and One Road" as a national strategy to coordinate the opening to the outside all around.At present China's economy need to make the transition because the bonus of population is approaching the inflection point and the advantage of labor-intensive industries also disappear gradually.What's more,the problem of excess manufacturing capacity is serious and the demand and consumption for oil,gas,and minerals is increasing growing.Therefore,on the one hand,it is necessary for china to adjust the economic structure,to transform economic developing mode so as to deepen the achievement of reform and opening-up policy.On the other hand,China should expand the foreign investment and trade,propelling Chinese enterprises "going global" with efforts,accomplishing the transition and upgrade as a whole through exporting excess capacity and marginal-advantage industry.First of all,this article expounds the current station of Chinese outward FDI and trade in B&R,mainly including investment and trade environment,regional distribution,industry situation,the risks and challenges,highlighting the dissimilitude in different areas on the resource endowment,economic structure,infrastructure and the differences of social system,etc.Secondly,this paper combing China's OFDI motives and trade effects in different motives in B&R through the theoretical analysis.According to the related theory and practice,this paper also makes a tentative hypothesis on Chinese OFDI motives and trade effects in different motives.Thirdly,this dissertation begins with empirical test,which is divided into three parts.The first part is the validation of China's OFDI motives in B&R.According to the results of panel auto-regression model,there are obvious market-seeking motives,natural-resources-seeking motives,efficiency-seeking motives to the China's OFDI in B&N,but the strategic-asset-seeking motives of OFDI is not notable.Secondly,we select panel data from 2009 to 2014 including the countries along with B&R,then divide these host countries into three groups according to the motives with the Ward System Clustering method,and use fixed effects regression method to inspect export and import effects under different investment motives.From the regression results we can conclude that in terms of overall trade effect,the efficiency seeking investment is more apparent than natural resource seeking type,and the market seeking type ranks the last.There are the following innovations in reference of previous research:(1)Although there are plenty of research literatures based on the relationship between China's foreign direct investment and foreign trade,but the papers are not enough from the optic angle of investment motivation.This article is not to study generally China's investment and trade or the relationship between them,but to analyze this considering about the investment motives and regional difference.(2)Most of the existing literatures describe theoretically the relation between OFDI and trade.This article uses Ward System Clustering method and fixed effects regression method to systemically explore China's outward FDI in B&RBecause of the complexity of the topic and the limitations of personal ability,some deficiencies still exist as follows:(1)The relevant data is lack vastly.Due to China's direct investment in B&R is at the bud stage,the earliest recorded data of direct investment in China is in the year 2003,besides,national economic development level in regions,is not equally,which makes some measuring methods can't be adopted due to the lack of data(2)Some variables are hard to quantify,which leading to a deviation in selecting proxy variables.For example,in the study of china's OFDI to the countries along with B&R.the variable of infrastructure construction level is hard to quantify.Finally the number of the users of the Internet per hundred households is considered as the proxy variable of infrastructure construction level,which cannot take traffic facilities into account.(3)Study in-depth is not enough.This dissertation simply divides the investment motivations into market-seeking motives.natural-resources-seeking motives,efficiency-seeking motives and strategic-asset-seeking motives.However,transnational enterprises often operate affairs with two or more motivations,so the accuracy of the division has certain limitations.