System Modeling Of Coal Industry Layout Under The Constraints Of Resources And Environments

As the main energy in China, coal has been the guarantee for the sustainable and rapid development of economy. It will remain be the guarantee for the energy security in China for a long period of time. With the rapid development of economy, the demand for the energy will also increase. Accordingly the production and consumption of coal will also grow. At the same time it will have negative impact on the resources and environment. The issue of resources and environment has become an increasing concern as the process of the sustainable development. Although the coal resource is abundant in China, but a huge mismatch between the coal resources and endowment of the resource and environment poses a pessimism future to the coal industry. National Energy Bureau proposed two ways to help coal industry get out of stuck. One is to control the amount of coal production and consumption, the other is to optimize the layout of the coal industry. That is to say we shouldn't ignore the comprehensive benefit from the optimization of the industry layout when we put a limit on the amount.With respect to the amount controlling of coal production and consumption, the optimization of the coal industry layout has a huge space to improve on the resource, environment and society. The optimization of coal industry layout should take account of heterogeneities on resource and environment endowment in different locations. As to achieve efficient and sustainable development of coal industry we should plan the scale of the coal industry and the choice of technologies during the coal mining and processing in line with the local endowment. Based on the above analysis, the dissertation makes full use of System Engineering, Operations Research, Economics, Theory of Environment, etc., to analyze the constraints of resources and environment for coal industry in China and establish a system model for the optimization of coal industry layout. Based on the system model, the dissertation analyzes the uncertainties and deals them with two-stage stochastic planning and interval planning. Based on GAMS software, the dissertation makes the model into implementation and does some numerical experiments. The theory of Production-Possibility Frontier and Shadow Price is adopted into the analysis of the numerical results and the validity of model. With respect to the establishment and implementation of the model, it divided into seven chapters to do the research. The main context is as follows:Chapter 1: Introduction. Firstly, from the perspective of the challenges facing by coal industry from the resource and environment, and the increasing concern from the government, it describes the background of the research. Then it analyzes the significance of the research from the the theoretical and practical perspective respectively. Continually, it describes the research context and methodology into detail. Based on this, it establishes the framework of the research and proposes the possible innovation.Chapter 2: Reviews of relevant research. Due to the interdisciplinary of the research, it reviews several areas which would be relevant to the research. Such as the methodology reviews which is the energy system model,the research area reviews which is the layout of coal industry, the constraints of resources and environment facing by coal industry, the interdisciplinary research of energy, water and food. Through the reviews, it could give the guideline for the research.Chapter 3: Resource and environment constraint facing by coal industry. This session respectively analyzes the constraints from four aspects which are the control of the air pollution, the water endowment, the food security and climate change. During the analysis, firstly it clarifies the interaction between constraints and the four parts of coal industry which are coal mining, process, transportation and transformation to put the natural “red line”. Then it sums up the relevant policies and regulations in the field of the constraint to put the political “red line”. At last it proposes alternative green technologies for the coal mining, processing, transportation and transformation and also shed light on the impact of the technologies on the resources and environment. This session will provide a realistic basis.Chapter 4: Establishment of the layout optimization system model of coal industry. Firstly, it analyzes the political and theoretical basis for the model. From the perspective of the national policy, it clarifies the political basis. Based on the theory of Industry Layout, Environmental Ecology, and Spatial Equilibrium, it shed light on the theoretical basis. Then it defines the boundary of the system, namely the coal mining, processing, transportation and transformation. With the help of Reference Energy System, it builds up the network diagram for the coal industry which is the basis for the framework of the system model. The constraints in the model include water resources, farmland resources, the control of air pollution, the control of GHG. Due to the water resources and land resources are the basis for the agriculture; it will lead to the competition between the coal industry and agriculture. Naturally, it introduces the food security. At the same time, considering the reality, it also introduces the constraint of the capacity of the coal production, the capacity of the transportation, the wash rate of the raw coal. It states the Probability Integral methodology to calculate the area of surface subside caused by coal mining and the method to calculate the area covered by gangue. For the GHG constraints, it introduces the method to calculate the GHG emission form the process of coal transformation. The object function of the model is to minimize the cost of the whole system, including the cost of coal mining, transportation, processing, transformation, the production of food and transportation.Chapter 5: Analysis of uncertainties in the model. Energy system planning is very complicated system engineering, in addition to reflect the complicated structure of the system; it should also have the ability to deal with a series of uncertainties in the model, such as the innovation and investment of the energy technology. Firstly, this session introduce the theories of uncertainties, including Stochastic Programing Theory, Fuzzy Programming Theory and Interval Programming Theory, followed by the analysis of the source of uncertainties in the model which are clarified from four aspects, namely natural factors, policy factors, market factors and the cognitive limitations. Based on this, it analyzes and processes the uncertainties of the constraint and objective function in the model. Uncertainties exist in both left and right hand of the water resource constraint, and in the form of the interval uncertainties and random uncertainties. Then the interval programing and two-stage stochastic programming is adopted to deal with it. In the farmland constraints the uncertainties exist in the left side of the constraints in the form of the interval uncertainties, the Pessimism Principle is adopted to deal with it. The demand constraints of the coal production and crops include the uncertainties in the right hand, in the form of stochastic, which is deal with the two-stage stochastics programming. In air pollution control and GHG constraints are also considered by twostage stochastic programmingChapter 6: Implementation of the model and numerical experiments. Due to the large scale of the parameters, variables and constraints, is should be implemented with the help of the computer software. This session implement the model and validate it on the basis of the mathematical model by using GAMS. Firstly, it shed light on the software and hardware conditions, especially on database of the system model including the set database, the original database, the model database, the storage database and the result database. Then the numerical experiment is implemented. It clarifies the application scope of the model from four aspects respectively, namely the scale of the model, the boundary of the geographical, the precision of the model, and the purpose of analysis. Then taking Shanxi province as the example, it introduces the resource and environment in Shanxi firstly, and dealing with political boundaries divides it into prefecture level. In the scenarios design, it considers 4 different water scenes; each scene includes 100 different combination of the demand for the coal production and crops. Based on the data of the model, it implements the model and analyzes the results which are visualized. Through the economic theory it analyzes the results. It gives a landscape of the coal and crop production under different water scenarios through the Production-Possibility Frontier, providing a comprehensive decision support system for policy makers, taking Shuozhou as an example to validate the model function of technology selection. As providing the guideline for the coal industry layout and technologies selection, it also provides the reference for the water pricing in the water right transactions system by the water shadow price calculated from the model. At the same time, it provides decision support for the water management support system. It can optimize the distribution of water through the demand and supply sides, namely it can ease the pressure on the shortage of water resources and optimize the water resource distribution through controlling the amount of water consumption and optimizing the layout of the water intensive activitiesChapter 7: Conclusion and prospect. This section is to sum up the work and point out the shortage of current study, as well as the research direction in the future. The shortage of study is in the form of the ability to predict and evaluate the quality of coal and data precision. The future direction of the study includes but not limits to the following: temporal dimension, constraints expansion, and the construction of database.Above all, the unity of the political system provides the possibility to optimize the layout among coal industry, environment and resources endowments. The heterogeneities on resource and environment endowment in different locations combined with mismatch between coal endowment and environment, resource endowment, provinces the necessity for the research. This study is an exploratory research which could provide the theoretical basis and decision-making tools for the quantitative analysis on the optimization of coal industry.