Research On The Transmission And Monitoring Of Internet Public Opinion Based On Complex Network

.Internet technology development and progress changed people's behavior greatly,especially in the generation and dissemination of public opinion.In the past few years,there were so many sudden mass incidents happened due to the Internet public opinion which could be intensified and developed into sudden public crises.Mass incidents caused by the Internet public opinion frequently,is not accidental phenomenon,but a natural phenomenon caused by the self-interest demands.Internet information has highly participatory,interactive,timeliness and viral characteristics so that the social effects of public opinion showing an enlarged geometric progression.If we cannot act the appropriate interventions,the mass incidents may cause many adverse consequences via the Internet.However,the network public opinion monitoring still remains in a state of passive management,which has not yet formed an active pre-warning and management models.Whether "one step ahead,forecasting demand" is the key to effectively guide public opinion and use of the network? In this research,we hope to find a viable network of public opinion prediction method considering the background of the premise of the Internet to provide some useful reference and reference.This thesis summarizes the theory of network public opinion,carding at home and abroad on the basis of literature,and also analysis the basic principles of public opinion and path network transmission.We launched a major study of the following five aspects:?Through the theoretical analysis of individual migration and transformation,we build an Internet-based public opinion threshold model,and simulate the Internet public opinion propagation process.?Based on the model selection,we use the system dynamics model to explain the transfer process of Internet public opinion,and explore a variety of factors have an impact on public opinion subgroup Internet transfer mode.?Based on the theoretical analysis of the Internet public opinion,we from an individual view of the Internet transfer mode.we from the perspective of individual interaction between individual migration of public opinion and information.?We discuss the issue of Internet public opinion beforehand monitor delivery based on the complex network.Using link prediction analysis methods,we predict the public opinion transfer connection with the starting point of individual relationship between public opinion "bandwagon effect" and the "threshold effect".?Based on the real data analysis,we measure the general transfer mode,the subgroups transfer mode and the individual transfer mode which can also verify the model we set and prove the practical applicability.? Based on micro data of Internet public opinion reality measure,collected through microblogging passed the public opinion of the real data and the of measure of the whole network,subgroups transfer measure model,individual transfer measure model,thus the establishment of public opinion on the transfer network model is verified,to prove its practical applicability.By studying public opinion on the network system,we draw some new research findings and research point.The main focuses of innovation are as follows:?Based on the theoretical analysis of public opinion,we found a threshold effect of public opinion during the transfer process.Change the traditional "blind repression",according to the thresholds and threshold effects small window to control public opinion.This conclusion can help to achieve the goal of public opinion control.And it's also an effective way to control the spread of public opinion.From the perspective of a threshold provides an effective method of controlling the spread of public opinion,in order to provide theoretical support for monitoring public opinion.?Based on the study of the transfer process,we found there are many differences between and in the virtual communities.The study comes from the perspective of a virtual community,and resolves the subgroups transfer mode of Internet public opinion transfer especially the main process between and inside the virtual communities.?Try to give a ?prior forecast" attempt of public opinion.At present,public opinion researches on the Internet are mostly ex post monitoring angle monitor.The usual practice is collecting public opinion data for statistical analysis or dissemination of kinetic analysis.This study attempts to use complex network theory "link prediction" approach to Internet public opinion predicted beforehand transfer process,according to public opinion relevant characteristics of the network.It selects the appropriate link predictor of the overall transfer process to predict public opinion.