A Study Of Population Migration And Its Influence In Northeast China

Among four economic regions in China,northeast region has the minimum area,similar natural conditions and smallest population,and population phenomenon in northeast China with decline in economic growth currently arouses wide attention from the academic circles.Controlling regional population status to deal with relationship between population and economic development is the problem that should be faced with in northeast China.Proceeding with migration and movement of population,this article analyzes quantity,structure,trend and other features of population migration and movement in northeast China since 2010,and its influence on regional human capital and economic development by means of quantitative research methods such as descriptive,trend and regression analysis according to national dynamical monitoring data of movement population of National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China(2011-2014)and of Report of Graduate Career Quality in China's Key Colleges.The fertility rate of northeast China is lower than national average level in the long term,and in the Sixth National Population Census,three provinces of northeast China are all listed in last 5 in China with respect to total fertility rate.Proportion of population in northeast China in total population shows a trend of decline since 1980,dropping from 9.07% in 1980 to 7.96% in 2015.Migration and movement have become important factors for influencing regional population situation on the premise of relatively stable fertility and death rates.There are few floating population in China at the beginning of 1980 s because of strict planned economy management and restriction on control of domicile.After medium term of 1980 s,floating population has undergone rapid growth and there are 247 million floating population in China by 2015.Differing from other regions,population migration in northeast China shows certain particularity.Firstly,northeast China becomes a region of net population outflow from that of net population inflow in the early days of new China,and rate of net population outflow increases year by year;secondly,population outflow in northeast China includes dual outflow of quantity and quality;thirdly,most of population outflow provinces are the big provinces in agriculture,and in fact,such outflow can be considered as transfer of labor from traditional agricultural department to industrial development;however,urbanization is relatively high in northeast China,with more outflow of nonagricultural population.Migration and movement of population in northeast China has own uniqueness and it is hard to illustrate with experience of other provinces and requires further research.Starting from overall situation of regional population,this research divides population migration into migration in region,regional inflow and regional outflow by means of national dynamical monitoring data of floating population of National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China(2011-2014)for eliminating effects of migration in three northeastern provinces on regional scale of floating population,and analyzes change in population migration of northeast China from 2011 to 2014.Judging from population migration scale,it is the region of net population outflow,with average outflow population exceeding 2 million since 2011 and increasing year by year.Trend of population outflow is being intensified;and from space distribution of population flow,both population migration within northeast China and outflow population in northeast China show the trend from north to south.North to south within the region means flow from Heilongjiang to Jilin and Liaoning,and from Jilin to Liaoning.North to south outside the region indicates population flow from northeast to southeast,mainly to economically developed cities,such as Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and Guangdong.Judging from features of demography,Inflow and outflow population quality in the region vary greatly.Compared with inflow population,outflow population are younger with longer education in average.Population outflow in the region is characterized by dual outflow of quantity and quality.Judging from inter-provincial differences,Liaoning having two municipalities at the deputy provincial level is a province with net population inflow while Jilin and Heilongjiang are the provinces with net population outflow,among which,population outflow in Heilongjiang is most serious,with net outflow population over 1.7 million in 2014.Finally,differing from other regions,there is relatively high population outflow of nonagricultural population in northeast China.Population migration and flow lead to increase or decrease in regional population and population outflow in the region includes dual outflow of quantity and quality;and therefore,attention should be given to corresponding human capital of northeast China under the expected decrease in total population of northeast China in the future.Recent graduates go to society from colleges every year,with change in place of domicile and place of employment,who can become new floating or migration population whether they are the same place;on the other hand,graduates can be considered as increment of human capital newly entering into the labor market,and graduation whereabouts distribution of graduates virtually embodies region distribution and difference of new human capital.Except non-permanent migration,there are also permanent migartion population-change the register of household registration,together with domicile,such as university graduate,transfer to another post.Proportion of college students originated from and returning to northeast China in national key colleges is lower than proportion of student source,and most of those students studying outside have not returned to northeast China.The phenomenon of Brain drain also exists in the regionTotal population of northeast China shows a negative growth and will keep a trend of negative growth affected by inertia of population.Loss made by college graduate outflow in human capital is far higher than that by general population outflow,population with domiciliary transfer represented by college graduates have higher stock of human capital,and net outflow of college graduate lowers reserve of talents that can be utilized in economic development of northeast China.For its population outflow,especially for talent flow,the human capital stock of northeast China is enhanced for offering a platform for talents and stimulating the vitality of the economy by combining relevant policies in which college students are sponsored by the state for employment in northeast China and related preferential employment policies and making policies putting efforts to retain locally trained talents and attract talents outside to return.