Research On Decision-making Methods And Models Of Post-earthquake Emergency Rescue And Reconstruction In Rural China

In recent years,heavy losses caused by the earthquake have shown that earthquakes and other natural disasters is not just the product of the natural phenomena caused by the motion of matter in nature,but as a social phenomenon of the interaction between natural disasters and hazard bearing body.Rural China is seriously affected by the earthquake,and is also weaknesses in emergency rescue and urgent need to strengthen the restoration and reconstruction work.Compared with Chinese cities,Chinese towns and villages are more susceptible to be damaged,which greatly exacerbate the adverse effects of the earthquake disaster and the loss,and delay the progress of restoration and reconstruction.That brings serious challenges for the decision-making of emergency relief and reconstruction to towns and villages after the earthquake,and which is directly related to the decision makers' decision-making methods in emergency rescue.Therefore,combined with the characteristics of hazard bearing body in towns and villages and earthquake mechanism,through the integrated analysis of post-disaster information of towns and villages,to build decision theory framework and methods of the whole process of post-disaster emergency rescue and rebuild in towns and villages,which is the key to master and control the earthquake disaster information of towns and villages.This can provide scientific and effective theory and method guidance to the whole process of emergency relief and the decision-making of post-earthquake reconstruction of towns and villages,and ensure the accuracy of the emergency rescue decision-making and command,the reconstruction work to be carried out smoothly,the loss of towns and villages caused by the earthquake disaster to be minimized.However,the existing theories and methods of emergency relief and reconstruction of towns and villages are few.These theories and methods always copy cities',which do not consider the actual local situation,and lacking the thorough and systematic research of the characteristics of earthquake disaster,the bearing disaster environment,social environment,town its own hazard bearing body and other factors of towns and villages;lacking decision-making theory of the whole process of post-earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction system covered the towns and villages;lacking the actual study of towns and villages on basic operational level;which leads to the theory and practice in the decision-making of post-earthquake actual emergency rescue and reconstruction to lack of guidance.And the research mostly concentrates in qualitative methods,few research focuses on quantitative methods.Therefore,in order to improve the emergency rescue and decision-making ability when the towns and villages faced with earthquake disaster,it is necessary to build the decision-making theory system of post-earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction of the towns and villages,which covers the disaster information integration and dynamic analysis,the whole post-earthquake decision-making process of emergency relief,recovery and reconstruction,on the basis of this,to systematic and quantitative research of decision-making methods,but the relevant literature relates to these contents is little.Our dissertation starts from the characteristics of the earthquake disaster of the towns and villages,the emergency relief phase and the division of tasks,through after the integration and delivery of the information of earthquake disaster of towns and villages,to build the theory system of post-earthquake emergency rescue and decision-making.And based on the earthquake disaster vulnerability and resilience,complex systems theory,information integration model and some other related concepts model,we use the system dynamics model,dynamic network model,improved immune Nystr?m spectral clustering algorithm,the improved PSO-BP neural network(MPSOBP)algorithm,group decision algorithm,optimal stopping Markov model,the improved trigonometric function of resilience and a variety of other qualitative and quantitative methods,to innovative put forward a variety of decision-making methods of post-earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction for the towns and villages.This can provide theoretical support framework and methodology support for the whole process of decision-making behaviors,such as the dynamic information integration and dynamic analysis,the life rescue in the burst of the disaster,the resettlement in the duration of the disaster,the termination rescue in the fading of the disaster,and the reconstruction in the restoration of the disaster.This dissertation constructs the information integration model of post-earthquake emergency rescue decision-making of the towns and villages,as well as utility model of the information influence decision-making,and the network model of decision makers' behavior.By analyzing the related concepts and features of disaster information,combined with the behavior rules of the towns and villages during earthquake disaster,based on the theory of information integration,to study the relationship and effects between the internal and external factors in the information integration system of post-earthquake emergency rescue decision-making,and to build information integration model of post-earthquake emergency rescue of the towns and villages,which can transform a large number of disorderly and chaotic disaster information code into effective decision-making information;and from the perspective of the impact of disaster information on emergency rescue,we use the network thinking in management discipline to establish two types of subjects in the post-earthquake emergency rescue network,that are the villagers accepted emergency rescue and the emergency rescue victims.Then we built the network model of post-earthquake emergency rescue decision-making behavior of villages and towns,to investigate the satisfaction level of villagers to the emergency rescue under the disaster information disclosure mechanism,as well as the behavior measures of the decision makers to reach the decisions purpose.This dissertation constructs a theoretical system framework for post-earthquake emergency rescue decision-making of villages and towns,focusing on research and application of the decision-making methods for the post-earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction of towns and villages.According to the division of the task and phase of the post-earthquake emergency rescue,as well as the behavioral pattern of earthquake disaster information,we integrate the disaster information,and use the transformed decision-making information to evaluate the dynamic disaster.According to the decision-making needs in each stage of the post-earthquake emergency rescue,we build decision-making system of the post-earthquake emergency rescue for towns and villages,to research the operating mechanism of subsystem and internal system.According to divide the emergency rescue phases,we build the population rescue decision model based on the vulnerability,the relief supplies decision model based on MPSOBP,temporary shelters decision model based on multi-attribute and hybrid,the optimal termination rescue decision model based on Markov,and make the cases analysis,and provide methodological support of life relief,resettlement relief,termination relief,recovery and reconstruction for towns and villages after the earthquake,respectively.Our dissertation constructs post-earthquake reconstruction decision model for towns and villages.By improving the the original triangle model of resilience,we provide a more convenient and accurate quantitative method for the calculation of resilience.From the four mainly dimensions of the towns and villages to recover from disaster: population,buildings,infrastructure,economic level,etc.,we use to study the quantization of resilience,which can analyze and evaluate the recovery speed and the expected reference time of the affected areas,or to compare the recovery speed of different hazard bearing bodies.The traffic network reconstruction decision model is based on the resilience priority,combining with the disaster characteristic of the affected areas and disaster mechanism to calculate the resilience priority,to determine the recovery order of the traffic network.The quantitative model of the post-earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction decision-making theoretical framework and methods described in our dissertation,in order to fill a vacancy in the analysis of the post-earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction decision-making theoretical framework and methods.This can provide the decision support for accelerating the construction of disaster prevention and mitigation for the towns and villages,and enhance the emergency rescue ability of the towns and villages,strengthen and improve the construction of the theory and method system of emergency rescue and reconstruction decision-making in rural China,and provide technical support based on scientific and theoretical for the government decision-makers in the decision-making of the emergency rescue and restoration work in rural China.