| Frequently happened natural disaster and man-made disasters threat human life and property, destroy people’s normal life and make people live in distress. However, emergency management can be carried out to alleviate the damage and moderate people’s stress that caused by the catastrophe. The great uncertainty that lies in the emergency response process adding more difficulty in make decisions in a short time, so we conduct scientific method to support the decision process, improve the effectiveness of the response.Our research focus on the logistics and the information flow in emergency management. We analysis the characteristics of logistics and the information flow from the management science sight. Taking flight delay for example, we instruct the information announcement strategy in emergency management, then conduct the allocation and network flow assignment to meet the urgency demand in disaster. Based on these research, we design the logistics system to make the materials dispatching decisions in emergency logistics.Firstly, by employing the mathematical model to investigate the expected stress of people in disasters under different conditions, this study builds a psychology model to describe the relationship between the stress, people state and the waiting time. Through minimizing the total stress of people’s waiting time, we find out the optimal strategy of information disclosure, which includes the disclosure time and the information that when the relief material will arrive. We explain the reason why the disaster agency doesn’t have the motivation to announce the delay information earlier, then we examine the optimal strategy under different reserve time before the relief materials arrive. The result of our research shows that the optimal strategy is related to the reserve time before relief material arrive and the way people perceived the stress, also information updating is more likely to achieve a better result of moderate people’s stress.Secondly, under emergency rescue circumstance, the uncertainty of demand and instability of traffic network flow increase the difficulty of emergency decision, and the rescue effect is difficult to control. Considering the problem of demand allocation and network flow assignment with fuzzy demand, a network flow model with the objective function of minimum total distribution time is built. By applying the double constrained gravity model and convex combination algorithm, the iterations of demand allocation and network flow assignment result contribute to the best demand allocation, optimal vehicle route and network flow. The effectiveness of the algorithm is verified by experiment tests and the effect of different demand allocation mechanism is compared. Results show that the distance impedance returns a more stable solution than time impedance.Thirdly, we build a logistics system to support the decision making process in the emergency logistics. Using the TOPSIS method to handle the triangle-fuzzy number and the genetic algorithm to solve the location and routing problem, we build a system with three subsystem for carrying out the decision in emergency logistics. Then we form a framework of the emergency logistics, combine the dispatching plan of relief goods with demand forecasting and human behaviors after disasters strikes, hoping to build a complex system that closer to reality in the future. |
