| Making research on schistosomiasis control has significance on eliminating schistosomiasis,advancing the economic and social sustainable development,building "two-oriented society" and Ecological Economic Zone in the Dongting Lake area.To study the problem of schistosomiasis control in the Dongting Lake area,taking interaction between human and infected water as the mainline,this paper followed the procedure of "basic theoretical research—infection risk evaluation-control scheme simulation-control system construction",and built evaluation index system of schistosomiasis infection risk,control simulation model,and overall control system,those of which were all based on the regional reality of Dongting Lake area and theories of epidemiology,ecology,regional economics and other subjects.(1)this paper sorted out the relevant concepts,basic theories,research contents and so on.Theories of schistosomiasis control included the Systematology,Man-land Relationship,Sustainable Development,Catastrophe theory,and Cybernetics.Dynamic evolution mechanism of schistosomiasis mainly originated from Population system,Ecosystem,Economic system,Social system,Government system etc.The main contents of schistosomiasis control included mechanism definition,risk evaluation,scheme simulation,scheme comparison and system construction.In the practical operation,the research followed the procedure as:mechanism analysis?index screen?relationship quantization?risk evaluation?scheme simulation?measures study.(2)Through the detailed introduction of geographic conditions,natural resources,development level,schistosomiasis status etc,and by the calculation of population infection rate,this paper profiled the main problems of schistosomiasis control in the Dongting Lake.(3)To study the interaction between human and infected water,the paper completed the screening,correlating and regressing analysis of driving index,taking positive rate of human blood test and area of susceptible area as the core index of infected water contact and distribution.Results show that:the correlation coefficients of infected water contact by absolute value from big to small are agriculture proportion(0.867)>urbanization level(0.846)>population(0.844)>rate of tap water supply(0.839)>level of agricultural mechanization(0.833)>disposable income of rural residents(0.831)>health education coverage(0.820);the correllation coefficients of infected water distribution by absolute value from big to small are lavatory reconstruction coverage(0.927)>cattle open rate(0.886)>cattle infection rate(0.859)>marshland expansion velocity(0.858)>human infection rate(0.855)>molluscicide area(0.694)>average water level(0.674)>environmental modification area(0.415)>average water level in flood season(0.328)>average volume of runoff(0.251).And the index of average volume of runoff could be ignored as its correlation coefficient was less than 0.3.(4)Based on the PSR model,this paper built a evaluation index system of schistosomiasis infection risk,using the analytic hierarchy process,entropy weight method and comprehensive index method to evaluate the status quo of the dongting lake schistosomiasis infection risk from two dimensions of time and space.Results show that:On the composite index,infection risk situation dropped from 0.9248 to 0.40337 in 2001-2014,but the downward trend slowed significantly in later period.And in 2014,the spatial pattern showed that Yueyang and Yuanjiang County's figures were above 0.5,14 counties' figures were between 0.35 and 0.5 including Hanshou,Anxiang and so on,5 counties' figures were between 0.2 and 0.3 including Shimenn,Taoyuan etc.On the subsystem's index,each risk situation had a declined trend on the whole,while the index of historical conditions fluctuate slightly.In 2014,the spatial pattern showed that there were 8 areas that have high risk,10 areas that have middle risk and 3 areas that have low risk in pressure subsystem;8 areas that have high risk,9 areas that have middle risk and 4 areas that have low risk in state subsystem;3 areas that have high risk,7 areas that have middle risk and 11 areas that have low risk in state subsystem.(5)On the basis of System Dynamics,the paper built schistosomiasis control system applying Vensim,and set up five schemes by adjusting related variable combination.Each scheme had different priorities,including traditional priority,agricultural economic priority,publicity and education priority,snail control priority,and urbanization priority.Results show that:The traditional scheme need to be improved as its limited control benefit and economic benefit.The agricultural economic priority scheme was suitable for less developed areas as its promotion to agricultural economy.Despite the lower follow-up benefit,the publicity and education priority scheme was suitable for serious epidemic areas as its faster entry into force.The snail control priority scheme was suitable for the areas where had snail widespread as its high value on snail control.The urbanization priority scheme was suitable for the area where there were huge differences between urban and rural areas,which contributed to regional overall development.(6)According to the practical problems of schistosomiasis control in Dongting Lake area,the paper proposed that by improving the comprehensive control system from four aspects which are overall goal,regional control,project Implementation and security mechanism,to guarantee its long term,high efficiency and sustainable running.The main construction content included:Targets of four aspects,including snail control and schistosomiasis prevention,economic development,urban and rural construction,environment improvement.Key points of Yueyang,Changde and Yryang.Schistosomiasis control projects of Agriculture,Water conservancy,Molluscicide,Biomolluscicides,Health Education,Infectious source control of human and animal.Schistosomiasis control mechanism of organization management,technology research,personnel training,project implementation,monitoring and early warning. |
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