| Thesis under the background of germplasm resources selected cassava as the research object, using the combination of empirical analysis and normative analysis, inductive analysis and comparative analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, to do the economic analysis of the cassava production in our country based on the huge collection of related data and field investigation.First, Thesis briefly introduced the germplasm resources and cassava germplasm resources and the contribution to the industry development, then systematicly examined the cassava production status and present industrial situation of our country, using the time trend regression method to measure the cassava planting area, yield and total production in our country, using the time series model to forecast the cassava total production and analysis of cassava product demand and market in our country, from the input-output and the factors which influence the production of cassava to analyze the economic benefits of cassava production, and summarized the experiences and drew lessons from major overseas cassava producer. On this basis, performed empirical research of the cassava production, sales and organization in China, analyzed the factors influencing cassava planting area and yield using the quantitative model with the data from questionnaire survey and a brief layout of cassava production capacity in China. Finally, based on above analysis, performed the systemic research of the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting cassava production developments from the view of prenatal investment promotion and postnatal consumption stimulation. The main content of the paper and the conclusion is as follows:1. The paper selected the logarithmic, linear and binomial time trend equation to time match the cassava planting area, output and yield in1961-2012. Through analysis we can see that cassava development in our country has experienced a process of rapid rise?rapid drops?slow rise?rapid drops?slow rise.2. This paper used the ARMA (p, d, q) model of time series model to forecast the cassava production in our country from2015to2020. The model has passed the inspection, shows that using the method to forecast feasible. According to the results of the model prediction, to find that in2020, cassava production in China will reach5.5million tons,20%more than in2012.3. Analysis showed that the annual growth rate of cassava planting area, output and yield is2.13%,2.66%and0.53%respectively, but the cassava planting area and output accounts for a small proportion of the world, only1.5-2%, yield level is slightly higher than the world average, yet the disparity exists when comparing the country that has higher yield level. At the same time, we are the world's largest cassava buyer, spending billions every year to import cassava and cassava products, our cassava dependence on world trade is very high.4. From the investment situation, cassava per production cost is lower than sugar cane, rice, corn, wheat, soybean, peanut and tobacco. From the output per mu of planting cassava production value is higher than that of corn and wheat, the net profit gained by planting cassava, input-output ratio and cost profit margins are higher than other seven crops.5. Major foreign experience for reference of cassava producer is:first, cassava industry development cannot leave the government support. Second, a good grow seedlings is the top priority. Third, cassava industry association plays a large role. Fourth, respect for the decisive role of market mechanism, and form a complete set of price support policy. Fifth, increase the added value of cassava products and extend the industrial chain through scientific and technological innovation. Sixth, talent is the key for cassava industry development.6. Through questionnaire survey of the six provinces of Guangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian and Jiangxi, we found that:most of cassava production in China is still the traditional household production mode, scattered planting, isolated in the face of the market, lack of effective organization, difficult to form the scale of production. The main basis of cassava acreage for farmers is its own land area, but land resources are limited. Though the benefit of Cassava intercropping is remarkable, but a single cassava still accounts for half. Sales model is mainly that cassava bidder to acquisition on the field, low sales price is the main issue that farmers generally reflected."Company+cooperative+peasant household" is the mode of production management unanimously approved, but the vast majority of cassava farmers and processing enterprises don't have the standardized contract for the constraint, and lack of industry chain, the relationship between production and sales is loose.7.the paper use the data from questionnaire survey, using the nonlinear regression and Cobb-Douglas production function to do the regression analysis for the cassava planting area and yield, the results show that the family land and labor inputs are respectively the first factors affecting cassava planting area and yield;8. Based on the above analysis and results, we suggest "seven push" and "three pull" policy measures from prenatal investment and postnatal consumption two aspects to promote cassava production."Seven push" is that continue to increase the collection, preservation, evaluation and innovative use of cassava germplasm resources, to guarantee cassava production from the source. Intensify the cultivation and promotion of new species; provide good seedlings for cassava production. Increase state funding of cassava cultivation policy guidance and support, make cassava industry grow bigger and stronger. Speed up scientific and technological innovation and team construction, and improve the system for R&D and promotion. Promote the construction of professional cooperatives and build modern cassava planting system through the land trust circulation. Study on the north-moving relocation of cassava cultivation system to stably expend cassava planting area. Study on cassava cultivation and harvest mechanization system to transform from the extensive management to intensive management."Three pull" is:eat cassava, to restoring the food identity and status of cassava and to promote market value. Increase the intensity of cassava products deep processing, to improve the economic value of cassava. Implement cassava price support policy, to improve the mechanism to protect farmers' interests. |
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