| Road freight transport is an important part of the integrated transport system,the main carrier of China’s logistics system and the basic servicesindustry of socio-economic development.Since the "13th Five-Year Plan",China’s road transport industry has made rapid development,transportation production capacity has improved significantly,the transport structure has been optimized,the market environment has improved obviously,the service quality has been improved continuously,and the support and guarantee of national economy and social development have been strengthened.However,in the development process of the road freight industry there exits low organizational degree,the level of intensive is not high and other prominent issues,leading to low efficiency of the overall utilization of road freight resources,insufficient capacity for effective supply,low transport efficiency,service level is not high,difficult to adapt the rapid development of social and economic needs.The emergence of Non-Truck Operating Common Carrier(NTOCC)provide a new opportunity to crack the development of China’s road freight industry short board,to enhance the level of intensive organization of the freight,to speed up the upgrading of the industry.NTOCC has the ability to integrate resources,the widebrand effect,theobvious network effect and other advantages.Firstly,to break information barriers between the carrier and the shipper,to promote the supply and demand information communication,to achieve the effective convergence of capacity and supply and is conducive to improving the efficiency of transport organizations.Secondly,through getting rid of the "intermediate" to achieve the flattening of the transport chain,shortenthe transaction process of supply and demand sides,reduce transaction costs and reduce the vehicle waiting time,which is conducive to reducing transportation costs.Thirdly,through unifying operation of organizations,service standards,billing system and specialized division of labor,to provide customers with standardized,one-stop service.Fourthly,through the capacity qualification review,unified service standards,online integrity assessment and other means to restraineffectively,regulate the operation of many small carriers,which is conducive to enhancing the efficiency of industry governance,improve the freight market environment and promote healthy and stable development of the industry.On the basis of the theory of intermediaries,contract law theory and resource integration theory,this paper expounds the connotation,characteristics and positioning of NTOCC,and analyzes the connotation,classification,characteristics and connotation ofresources integration of freight transport resource of NTOCC.Based on this,this paper puts forward the goal,principle and conceptual model of NTOCC freight resource integration;establishes evaluation index system of NTOCC partner selection,and the DEMATEL-ANP-VIKOR mixed decision model is designed for NTOCC evaluation and screening partners;for the NTOCC operation process to take full account of the interests of different subjects,transport capacity scattered heterogeneity,the formation of tariffs and the distribution of benefits and other characteristics,the optimization model of NTOCC resource organization with opportunity constraint is established.This paper analyzes the connotation,type and demand of the information resources of the NTOCC,and expounds the mode,method and technology of the information integration of the NTOCC.On this basis,the concrete measures of the integration of information resources are put forward—construction of NTOCC Information Platform,the functional modules of the information platform of are designed,and the operation of the information platform and operational model are stated;Finally,the NTOCC distribution mechanism,cooperation mechanisms and risk prevention mechanisms and other important operational mechanism are studied.The main research results and innovations point of the paper are reflected in the following three aspects:First,according to the main influencing factors of the NTOCC partner selection,the evaluation index system of the NTOCC selection is constructed,and the DEMATEL-ANP-VIKOR mixed decision model is established as the carrier-free partner selection model.Firstly,the DEMATEL method is used to establish the influence relation matrix of the first-level index,and the degree of influence and influence of each index on other indicators are obtained.Then the ANP method is used to determine the weight of the secondary index.Finally,the VIKOR algorithm is used to rank the candidate partners.Compared with traditional methods such as BP neural network method,analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,this model has three advantages: first,it takes full account of the mutual restraint and mutual influence between the evaluation index of theNTOCC selection partner and reduce the impact of the decision-making error on the final decision-making result,while the traditional approach ignores theexpression of relationship between the evaluation index;second,it relaxes he independent and hierarchical irreversible constraints between the analytic hierarchy process indicators,clearly describes the indicators and the feedback function within the system,and deal with the ANP method,effectively solve the problem of non-independent hierarchical structure,making the measurement and distribution of index weight more reasonable;third,in terms of ranking alternative partners,taking into account the maximization of collective utility and individual regret to minimize the target and realistic factors of the NTOCC partner selection,and the method meet Fully the NTOCC group utility maximization goal,more in line with the actual decision of NTOCC.The results show that the model is effective and practical,and it can meet the characteristics of the evaluation index system of the NTOCC partner selection,and can provide the decision basis for the NTOCC partnerselection.Second,in order to achieve the profit maximization of the NTOCC under the multiple constraints,the actual carrier profit in a reasonable range and the minimized shipper’s cost,and the optimal allocation model of the NTOCC capacity resource with the opportunity constraint is established,to match and optimize the transport capacity resource,freight resource and transport lines.Compared with the traditional method,this model fully considers and satisfies the actual needs and expectations of the NTOCC,the actual carrier and the shipper,and quantifies the negotiation process and the game behavior through the mathematical description.In the model solving,the particle swarm optimization has the advantages of small adjustment parameters,fast convergence speed,high robustness,and the neural network algorithm has the advantages of strong nonlinear fitting ability,can be mapped the complexity of any nonlinear relationship,the simple rules of learning,so using the particle swarm and neural network hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve the modelcan quickly and accurately obtain the results.The results show that the model can not only guarantee the maximum profit of the NTOCC and the actual carrier’s profit within a certain acceptable range,but also can reduce the transportation cost,scientifically dispatch the transport resource,realize the cargoods matching,and has better application value.Third,analyze the main risks in the process of NTOCC operation,and construct the risk early warning index system with 26 indicators.Based on the principal component analysis of the index system,the probability of NTOCC risk is calculated by Logit risk early warning model,and the PCA-Logit risk early warning model is established.The traditional risk early warning analysis method has some shortcomings in solving the risk early warning of NTOCC,for example,the neural network model is prone to excessive or insufficient sample training,local minimization and so on,SVM model is generally used for the dichotomies problem,as the algorithm is relatively complex,the actual effect is significant,genetic algorithm "early maturity",stability is also relatively limited.The stability of the model of NTOCC risk probability calculation is relatively high,relative to the above method,the Logit model is simple and practical,strong robustness.However,it is considered that the Logit model is more sensitive to the correlation of the independent variables,therefore,in the modeling process,first make the principal component analysis of the independent variables and then use the Logit model to predict the probability of carrier risk.The results show that the model overcoming the disadvantages of excessive or insufficient sample training,local minimization,and limited stability of single risk warning method.And can improve the accuracy of risk probability calculation and the stability of risk warning. |
