Study Of Environmental Decision-making Methodology For Regional Wind Power Planning And Construction

As one of clean renewable resources with great development prospects,wind resource has obtained extensive attention worldwide.In recent years,the exploitation of wind resource has entered a rapid development stage,ecological devastation and environmental problems caused by disorderly wind power development become increasingly prominent,and has become one of great increasing concerns to the police makers.The wind resources implementation process mainly includes numerical simulation,site selection and environmental benefits assessment of comprehensive environmental decision-making problem.As a result,comprehensive analysis on the environment influences and profits of wind resource utilization sites has great significance on the coordination development between wind resource exploitation and ecological environment.How to make the predictions of resource distribution of wind and exploitation amount more reliable?How to assess site suitability of wind farm under constrained in the underlying surface condition?How to assess environmental benefits of wind energy resources based on life cycle assessment scale?These questions have become the important problems to be addressed in environmental decision-making methodology for regional wind power planning and construction.According to the above problem,the paper takes Liaoning province as case,systematically carried out a study of environmental decision-making methodology for regional wind power planning and construction,main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)A regional wind energy resource prediction method was established based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)and computational fluid dynamics(CFD).This method first simulated the 3 km x 3 km annual mean wind speed of the study area using WRF.Based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)model with the renormalization group(RNG k-s)for CFD modeling in complex terrain to obtain the annual mean wind speed results and spatial distribution of 1 km x 1 km accuracy in the study area.The wind power density was obtained by wind speed and wind power density conversion formula.The results were applied to analysis the spatial distribution characteristics of wind energy resources reserves and technical exploitation amount in different heights in Liaoning province.The study shows that the technical exploitation amount of wind energy resources in the height of 10 m and 70 m in the land area of Liaoning province are 8666 MW and 593346 MW respectively.The high wind energy area was mainly concentrated in the shoreline and beach in Circum-Bohai-Sea,the mountainous area in the northwest,the main beam of the Changbai mountain-odd arteries and central plain areas in Liaoning province.(2)This thesis proposed an evaluation method based on Ordered Weighted Average(OWA)and Geographic Information System(GIS)to evaluate the suitability of the development of wind energy resources.An evaluation index system was established on the ecological,environmental and socio-economic perspective.It consisted of three criteria(ecological characteristics,socio-economic characteristics and social environment characteristics)and twenty-six sub-criteria(sensitivity of nature reserve,value of ecological service,distribution of wind energy resources,atmospheric environmental pollution index,etc.).Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and fuzzy quantitation method were used to determine to the criterion weights and order weights of the relevant indexes.Ordered Weighted Average(OWA)and geographic information system(GIS)were jointly employed to construct the framework of regional suitability analysis.Using this method,the suitability of wind energy development in Liaoning province were analyzed,and the spatial distribution characteristics of wind energy utilization suitability under different decision were obtained.Combined with the results of regional wind energy prediction,the technical exploitation amount of wind energy resources were obtained under different suitability grades.The study found that,limited by the suitability of site selection,the exploitation amount are only 8.63%of the wind energy resources reserves in Liaoning province,mainly distributed in the Huludao,Jinzhou and Yingkou beach areas and shoreline of the Bohai Sea,Fuxin and Chaoyang in the northwest Area,Dandong alpine region in the eastern Shenyang,Tieling and Anshan in central plain areas.(3)This study proposed an analysis method of environmental benefit scenarios for wind energy resources development based on life cycle assessment(LCA)and DGM(2,1).The energy consumption and key air pollutants emissions(sulfur dioxide,nitrogen oxides,and greenhouse gases)were analyzed in the process of wind turbines manufacture,transportation,wind farm construction,wind turbine's operation and maintenance and wind turbines removal and recycling based on life cycle assessment(LCA).Environmental benefits of pollutant emission reduction were also analyzed based on the power generation forecast,the result of LCA of energy consumption and the emission intensity.Using historical data,the DGM(2,1)model was employed to predict the installed capacity of wind power in Liaoning province from 2016 to 2025.After that,the environmental benefits of wind energy development on various pollutant emission reduction were obtained.The study found that wind power installed capacity of Liaoning province will reach 37311 MW in 2025,it can save 2.1 million tons of standard coal,1.31 million tons of sulfur dioxide,18,700 tons of nitrogen oxides,0.522 million tons of 13.6 million tons of greenhouse gas emission.In sum,this thesis is a useful exploration to the methods of the environmental decision-making process of regional wind power planning and construction.The research methods include wind resource numeric simulation,site suitability assessment,environmental benefit analysis and energy development forecasting,etc.The research tools involve mesoscale numeric model,computational fluid dynamics,ordered weighted average operator,geographic information system,fuzzy mathematics,life cycle assessment,etc.It is promising for providing methodological reference and support tools for China's wind power development and construction.