| As the major artery of our economy and the critical national infrastructure, railways play extremely important role in China's integrated transportation system. In recent years, China's railways have rapidly developed toward the directions of high-speed passenger transport, heavy-duty freight, management informatization and marketizing operation, which provide important support and guarantee for our economic and social development. However, with the continuous improvement of train speed, the continued capacity increment, the large amount of inputs and the use of high-tech equipment and technology as well as the continuous deepening on institutional mechanism reform, the features of railway emergencies including diversity, complexity, seriousness of the consequences, the time urgency and the publicity have become increasingly prominent, which have brought many challenges to the daily management and the emergency rescue & command of the railway, and the security situation in rail transport is getting increasingly grim. Therefore, it's urgent for the railway to establish a sound emergency management system, thus to ensure the fast and safe disposal of all types of railway emergencies, restore normal transport order in the shortest possible time and try to reduce the casualties and property losses. Meanwhile, the issue of highlighting the emergency plan system is also very prominent:most of the emergency plans developed strongly depend on the existing framework and principle, but they are lack of pertinence and feasibility; most of the emergency plans are developed based on the unified frameworks and guidelines, and they are not designed with respect to specific risk scenarios; public education and professional dynamic assessment of emergency plans are insufficient; exercises with the purpose of finding problem are in short.The assessment of railway emergency plans is of fundamental importance to the emergency plan system, and it will reflect the quality of the railway emergency plans. Identifying and analyzing key factors of railway emergency plan assessment with reliable survey data in advance, applying the scientific and rational approach to make reasonable classification and optimized systematization on the evaluation objectives will help to improve the quality of the plans. Afterall, assessing the railway emergency plans will ensure the emergency and rescue operations to be implemented in a rapid, orderly and effectively way, and reduce the losses in each link of the railway system that brought by the emergencies. Therefore, the study of the railway emergency plan assessment would produce important theoretical and practical significances.Combined with different types of actual situations faced by our railway emergency management system and the existing studies, this paper aims to build the railway emergency management system and railway emergency plan system in clear logics. In particular, for the optimization issue of the railway emergency plan, this paper constructs the decision model for the railway emergency contingency plans with railway emergencies in different situations to assess the pros and cons of the emergency plans. The main research work of this paper includes the following aspects:1. The retrospective analysis of the existing literature. Based on the conclusion of large amounts of related literature, this paper introduces and reviews the development of China's emergency management, the study on the emergency management system and the emergency plan system in three aspects, specifically including the following aspects:the development of China's emergency management, the development of China's railway emergency management, the research status of China's emergency management system, the research status of China's railway emergency management system, the research status of China's emergency plan system and the research status of China's railway emergency plan system.2. Establish the railway emergency management and emergency plan system. This paper describes the inducement for railway emergencies and the hierarchical classification, and defines the connotation of railway emergency management. By analyzing the existing problems in the railway emergency management, this paper proposes the new framework and structure of the rail emergency management system. Considering the characteristics of railway emergency management and emergency plan management, this paper defines the concept of railway emergency plan system based on the framework and structure of the emergency management system. This paper aims to build the railway emergency plan sub-system in aspects of the top-level design of railway emergency plan, risk analysis and emergency capability assessment, railway emergency plan system, railway emergency plan management practices and railway emergency plan management information system. This paper also collates the relationships of the contents in each part, and reconstruct sthe hierarchal structure of plans in different types. In addition, this paper discusses the basic concepts of the railway emergency plan evaluation, proposes the index system for the railway emergency plan evaluation, and analyzes the features of the railway emergency plan evaluation such as multi-agent, fuzziness, relevance and risks. This paper also demonstrates that the railway emergency plan evaluation is also a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making problem with interrelated inputs and experts'risk appetites.3. Construct the railway emergency plan evaluation models considering the interrelationships of the group experts' preference. According to the proposed improved operational laws of intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number(ITFN), an aggregation operator of ITFN is proposed based on fuzzy measure and ITFN Choquet integral (ITFNCI), the relative properties of the aggregation operator are also proposed and investigated. A prospect effect and a prospect value function of ITFN are defined based on prospect theory, and then a prospect ITFNCI operator is constructed. With respect to a multiple attribute group decision making problem considering interactions among decision-makers, the prospect value functions of ITFNs are aggregated by using the prospect ITFNCI operator; a MULTIMOORA theory is employed to obtain a ranking of railway emergency plans corresponding to each ordering approach; a Dominance theory is then utilized to summarize the three rankings into a single one. Therefore, the best railway emergency plan will be obtained.4. Construct the railway emergency plan evaluation models considering the interrelationships among the experts and attributes. A ranking appraoch of ITFNs based on minimum expectation and maximum expectation is proposed. Considering risk preferences of decision makers, a novel concept of a risk coefficient is introduced to construct improved operational laws of ITFNs. An intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy Bonferroni (ITFB) mean operator is then proposed based on the improved operational laws, and then the relative properties of the ITFB mean operator are investigated. With respect to a railway emergency plan group evaluation problem, in which experts are interdependent, attributes are interdependent, and experts' weights and attributes' weights are both unknown, an improved MULTIMOORA group decision making approach considering ITFN interdependent inputs is proposed. In this approach, firstly, a sequence of intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy decision matrixes are constructed, and then a sequence of normalized minimum expectation decision matrixes are obtained by calculating the minimum expectations of the intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy decision matrixes. Secondly, a entropy weight method for determining attributes'weights corresponding to each expert are integrated into an objective and subjective synthetic approach considering interactions of experts' preferences for obtaining experts'weights in order to determine experts' weights and attributes' weights based on the combination of 2-additive fuzzy measures and Choquet integral. Furthermore, the weighted ITFB mean operator and the Hamming distance of ITFNs are introduced to improve the traditional MULTIMOORA approach, and then the improved MULTIMOORA approach is employed to obtain a ranking of railway emergency plans corresponding to each one of three ordering approach; a Dominance theory is then utilized to summarize the three rankings into a single one. Therefore, the best railway emergency plan will be obtained.5. Construct the railway emergency plan evaluation models based on propect theory considering the interrelationships among the experts and attributes. The interval-valued intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number (IITFN) is an efficient tool for describing uncertainties of complex systems. In this paper, the improved operational laws of IITFNs are developed and their partial closure property is discussed. Then an interval-valued intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy geometric Bonferroni mean operator is developed, and some relative properties of this operator are also proposed and investigated. In a framework of complex system which the performance is evaluated as an IITFN, a prospect theory is introduced to describe psychological and behavioral characteristics of experts. With respect to a railway emergency plan group evaluation problem, in which there are both interactions among experts and attributes and experts' weights and attributes' weights are both unknown, an interdependent MAGDM method based on a prospect hybrid interval-valued intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy geometric Bonferroni (PHIITFGB) mean operator is proposed. Firstly, a prospect effect, a prospect value function, and a prospect value of IITFN are defined to obtain prospect value matrixes. Secondly, prospect value matrixes are transformed into the corresponding prospect score function matrixes, then a maximum entropy optimization model for determining objective attribute weights based on a principle of grey correlation deep coefficient and a model for obtaining expert weights based on the combination of 2-additive fuzzy measures and Choquet integral are integrated to determine experts' weights and attributes' weights. Thirdly, evaluations of every railway emergency plans derived from each decision maker are aggregated by utilizing the PHIITFGB mean operator, and then the comprehensive prospect value corresponding to each railway emergency plan is obtained by integrating experts'weights. Finally, a ranking of railway emergency plans is determined by calculating score functions of each railway emergency plan. |
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