Research On Decision Mode And Method Of Existing Commercial Residential Building Energy Saving Retrofit In Heating Regions Of China

The existing building energy consumption is about 30% of the total society energy consumption in China, which is an important field of energy conservation and emissions reduction, so the existing building energy saving retrofit is of great significance to sustainable development. The Existing Commercial Residential Buildings Energy Saving Retrofit(ECRBESR) in heating regions of northern has become the important and difficult thing because of the significance of social and environmental benefits, the large number of areas and the high degree of difficulty.Based on the significant externality of ECRBESR, the way of government promotion and main operation is adopted for ECRBESR, and played an important role in the early stage of ECRBESR. However, in the stage of development of ECRBESR, the ECRBESR marches from the pilot operation to the large-scale operation and the way of government promotion and main operation is applied, so the ECRBESR has appeared the bottleneck problem which results in that it is difficult to complete a large number of energy saving retrofit areas. Hence, It is necessary to seek effective decision mode and method in the stage of development of ECRBESR, which will break through bottleneck to realize large-scale ECRBESR.In this paper, by using the general system theory, the utility theory, the group decision theory, the opinion leaders theory and the evolutionary game theory, the decision mode and method of ECRBESR is researched, and the purpose is to seek the objective laws of decision for ECRBESR, establish the basic mode and method of scientific decision, realize more efficient market supervision decision and project operation decision, and under the premise of the government-oriented effect, get through the market-oriented approach for ECRBESR to promote the sustainable development of building energy saving.The main innovative research contents of this paper are as follows:1. Based on the analysis of decision influencing factors of ECRBESR, the effective identification criterion of decision mode for ECRBESR is put forward, and the hierarchy of decision mode of ECRBESR is built. Through the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of different forms and types of decision model for ECRBESR, and the government promotion combined with market demand pattern of regulatory decision mode for ECRBESR and the government-oriented marketization development pattern of project decision model for ECRBESR are constructed,and it is put forward that the government-oriented marketization cooperation type of project decision mode for ECRBESR will occupy the dominant position and the government operation pattern, the government and construction unit operation pattern and other patterns will account for auxiliary and complementary role in the stage of development of ECRBESR.Based on the entropy state rule of ECRBESR decision system operation, the entropy state function models of market regulatory decision mode evaluation and project operation decision mode evaluation are established, and the method of the probability distribution test of evaluation model is put forward. Hence, a new effective path of decision mode evaluation is obtained.2. Put forward the effective path of the project decision of ECRBESR. Through the rational evaluation, the bounded rationality evaluation and the comprehensive decision method, the project object of ECRBESR, such as a commercial residential district, can be chosen effectively; through the demand analysis, the technical and economic analysis and the redundancy technology, the project scheme of ECRBESR can be designed reasonably; in the end, by applying the group utility decision method, the utility communication method, the opinion leaders influence analysis method, and the evolutionary game analysis method, the scheme to be executed for ECRBESR can be chosen effectively.3. In the project decision analysis of ECRBESR, the coordination decision method is developed, which integrates the rational decision method with the limited rational decision method, can improve the limitations and shortcomings in single rational or limited rational decision, and significantly improve the accuracy and effectiveness of project decision of ECRBESR.4. Based on the utility theory, the group decision theory, the opinion leaders theory and the evolutionary game theory, the group decision model of project scheme of ECRBESR is built, which can be used as a effective tool for project scheme marketization decision of ECRBESR. Furthermore, for the preference integration technology of group decision, it is put forward that the individuals preferences of decision groups of the projects with specific mutual benefit nature, can possess the dynamic homoplasy, and these ideas and methods may be useful exploring in the development of group decision science. In the analysis of the evolutionary game, by introducing the utility concept and theory of opinion leaders, the analysis model of evolutionary game is improved to make better use of evolutionary game analysis in the group decision for the specific project.This paper is supported by National Soft Science Research Program(2011 GXQ4D080) and Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(20116120110010).