Study On Evolution Mechanism And Assessment Of Ecological Security For The Coal Resource-based City

The convening of the sixth meeting of central financial and economic leading group marked that our country has entered a new era of energy production and consumption revolution,but because of the restriction of the cost and technology,the new energy industry has not been formed.Facing the objective reality that our country is "rich in coal,short in oil and lacking in gas" domination of traditional energy is still difficult to change.Therefore,promoting the sustainable development of coal resources-based city is the only choice to maintain the sustainable and healthy development of the national economy.As ecologically fragile area,small changes of coal resource-based cities are likely to cause "butterfly effect",besides,the hidden ecological danger of the rapid development of urban area and the accumulation of trigger or quantitative change may lead to the deterioration,the qualitative change and mutation of ecological security.Therefore,no matter from the perspective of the sustainable development of the science,or from the view of the ecological security of the energy revolution,we must strengthen the research of ecological security evolution mechanism and evaluation field of coal resource-based city.Based on the ecological economics theory and the dissipative structure theory,this paper adopt the research method of combination of qualitative and quantitative,comply with the epistemology route from theory to practice,from practice to theory of materialism,follow the writing path of "discovery problems,analyze problems,solve problems and the results verifying and feedback".Taking Jiaozuo as an example,this paper carried out the research of ecological security evolution mechanism and evaluation field of coal resource-based city.Content mainly includes the following several aspects:(1)Explain the background of the selected topic and significance of the thesis,review the domestic and foreign research situation of ecological security of coal resource-based city and explain the research ideas,research methods,technical route and the main research contents,define the relevant concepts of ecological security of the coal resource-based city,clarify the theoretical basis from three aspects such as the natural environment,social economy and ecological environment conditions.(2)Build the ecosystem structure of the coal-based resources city,analyzes its openness,the balance,and nonlinear relationship,the self-organizing characteristics and nonlinear dynamics process of the dissipative structure characteristics.Based on the cognition that coal resources city ecological system is a dissipative structure,and there are e many factors in analysis of ecological system and the subsystem parameters coal resource-based city and,complex nonlinear coupling between the parameters and cooperative relations,to explore the stability of the coal resource-based city ecosystem structure,buckling and bifurcation phenomena.(3)Combine value analysis and ecological footprint method to build analysis model ecological security evolution of coal resource-based city.Take Jiaozuo as an example to measure ecological security evolution process of six kinds of biological productive land consumption of coal resource-based city and quantitatively present ecological footprint of coal resource-based city,ecological carrying capacity and the change of the ecological security situation,and define the characteristics of ecological security evolution of the coal resource-based city.(4)Research on the ecological security evolution of exogenous and endogenous triggered activation factor of coal resource-based city,calculate the order parameter of coal resource-based city’s ecological security using the grounded theory and the DEMATEL method,build coal resources city ecological security and ecological security subsystem,natural ecological security subsystem,social ecological security subsystem four super circulation organization module,and analyzes each module internal circulation system,the coupling and feedback mechanism.(5)Build coal resource-based city’s ecological security evaluation index system.Establish weight calculation method of coal resource-based city’s ecological security evaluation index based on AHP and the coefficient of variation method.And the ecological security composite index method is used to quantitatively measure the ecological security level of coal resource-based city from the dimension of time and space.Through the empirical analysis of Jiaozuo,the key factor of ecological security level of the coal resource-based city and the weak link of ecological construction can be found.(6)Build the prediction model of ecological security evolvement trend of the coal resource-based city based on RBF neural network model.On the basis of ecological security evaluation results,the coal resource-based city’ ecological security situation in the next few years can be predicted.According to the results of the Jiaozuo ecological security evaluation and prediction,some measures are put forward to strengthen the ecological construction and maintain ecological safety.