Research On Air Pollution In Beijing-tianjin-hebei Based On Functional Data Analysis

The synergetic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is a major national strategy and of great importance in regional development,however,serious air pollution has become the bottleneck of sustainable economic development in recent years.The current researches are focusing on the analyzing and predicting the changes of air quality in meteorology,geography and environmental science.In addition,the regional collaborations of air pollution control are still at the theoretical level,due to the lack of systematic quantitative methodology and applied research.Since the air quality data presents similar characteristics as function,this study investigates the characteristics of air pollution,the pattern and variables of air quality changes,and the functional response relationship between emission and air quality by analyzing the functional data.Specifically on the problem of air pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the study develops a game model with incentive mechanism based on the industrial emission reduction,which provides the theoretical support for the collaborative development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,as well as alleviating air pollution.The main research work and conclusions are as follows.First,based on K-means clustering method of functional data,we discussed the classification of typical polluted area and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,which solved the clustering of high dimensional dense data.The results indicated that the locations with the most serious air pollution were Shijiazhuang,Baoding,Xingtai in Hebei province.The primary pollutant is PM_2.5.Additionally the air pollution were significantly seasonal.Almost all pollutants reached the highest level during winter.Contrarily,in summer,only ozone became the primary pollution in Beijing.Second,through the functional principal component analysis of the PM_2.5 concentration curve from 68 monitoring stations,we studied the main mode and periodical characteristics of air quality in Beijing-Tianjin-hebei.The results showed that the cumulative contribution rate of the first two principal components was up to 95.2%.The first principal component indicated the change of PM_2.5 concentration in winter,and the second principal component indicated the change in summer.Also the main component score chart clearly classified the pollution statuses of the 68 stations.Third,we evaluated the effect of winter heating,the number of employees and the change of production capacity on air quality.In winter,due to the public heating,the concentrations of PM_2.5,PM10,SO₂ and other pollutants increased significantly,which changed the periodic variation of SO₂ concentration.Based on the correlation analysis of the functional data,the correlation coefficient function of the 17 industries in Beijing and the sulfur dioxide emission curve was obtained.Along the passage of time,the correlation has weakened,which indicated the initial success of industrial structure adjustment in Beijing since 2008.However,the worst capacity structure was found in Hebei province.By establishing the five factors（such as coal pollution intensity,energy consumption per GDP,industrial structure,energy structure,economic scale）decomposition model for the velocity curve of pollutants emission changes in Hebei Province,we found the adjustment of the capacity structure could reduce the pollutant emission velocity curve.Fourth,based on the specific index of air quality improvement in the regulation of "the atmosphere ten items",we discussed the establishment of functional linear model of the total emissions of air pollutants.According to the calculation results of the model,the pollutant emission reduction rate was too high in Beijing and Tianjin.Although part of Hebei cities had achieved the 25% decline target,PM_2.5 concentration was still too high.Therefore,"the atmosphere ten items" regulation proposed air quality target was unreasonable,and should change a specific percentage of the decline into a numerical index,which would have more guidance.Finally,based on simulation of the Stackelberg game model with one-leader and multiple-follower for the industrial emission reduction,it showed that,without effective constraint mechanism,the local governments would naturally increase emissions of pollutants in order to maximize their economic utility,and they were a non-cooperative state.Therefore,based on the national macro-control,the central government should promote the third parties to form a long-term cooperation mechanism of pollution control in consideration of their fair economic development.