| Human preferred to live in urban.The report "World Urbanization Prospects,2014 Revision",which promulgated by the United Nations in 2014,showed that the population in Shanghai has reached 23 million,ranked the third in the world,and the expected population will exceed 30 million in 2050.In 2016,the Shanghai municipal has released the master plan of urban development has clearly pointed out: by 2020 the population will be controlled within 25 million,and controlled around 25 million until 2040.This estimate was much lower than the number given in the UN report.The two basic characteristics of urbanization was population agglomeration and homogenization artificial construction,accompanied by urban heat island aggravated,urban air pollution severely,drinkable water quality decreased,traffic congestion,housing resources strengthen,natural resources reduced,ecosystem services lower and other ‘urban diseases’.In developing countries,due to a rapid urbanization,these ‘urban diseases’ were particularly plagued the sustainable development.The urban was composed of social,economic and natural systems,which was a complex social-ecological systems(SESs).The research of urban landscape ecological included urban spatial structure and ecological process studies,and focused on understanding and improving urban sustainability,such as urban landscape resilience coupled with human activities.Holling(1973)defined resilience,this theory provided a dynamic thinking of complex system,while Cumming(2011)developed a new concept of spatial resilience which can integrated landscape ecology pattern,scale and process with resilience and sustainability.Based on the literature review,I chose Shanghai as a case study area,a total of 15-year series of urban landscape pattern,effect,and resilience analyzed.Through this study,I want to apply the concept of resilience and spatial resilience,establish a molder ofresilience assessment,and then distinguish the characteristic of resilience.This study was completed by three parts.First of all,choose indicators.I have chosen 20 indicators covered social,economic,and natural systems These indicators included: green infrastructure fragmentation,land surface temperature,surface reflection data,enhanced vegetation index,net photosynthesis;final consumption of energy,living consumption,quantity of days with good ambient air quality,residential garbage produced;year-end resident population,year-end registered population,density of population,floating people,per capita housing area of urban residents,individual civil motor vehicles;investment on environment protection,elasticity of energy consumption,elasticity of electric power consumption,per capita disposable income,per capita consumption expenditure.The first five natural indicators were obtained from the remote sensing data,and others were derived from the Shanghai Statistical Yearbooks.Secondly,analyzed the landscape pattern and effect by using the remote sensing data of Landsat and MODIS.Used the Landsat data to interpret the green infrastructure,a total of four data sets.Used MODIS data to produce land surface temperature data,surface reflection data,enhanced vegetation index data,net photosynthesis data,with four seasons four years,a total of 64 data sets.Used MSPA to analysis the change of the spatial structure of the green infrastructure.Used the spatial autocorrelation Moran’I index to analyze the correlation between the 68 data sets of the urban landscape ecology,the average Moran’I index is 0.82.Thirdly,integrated 20 indicators into a model of resilience to distinguish the characteristics of resilience.According to the concept of spatial resilience and the model released by Resilience Alliance,these 20 indicators were operated by a new resilience assessment model.This model redefined the indicators into the internal or external elements,and fast-changing or slow changing elements also.Used pairwisecorrelations regression analysis though time,I found the characteristics of resilience in Shanghai were green infrastructure density of population.The conclusion was the following:Firstly,urbanization expansion has rapidly developed in Shanghai since 2010.Green infrastructure in the core of urban was increased,but there was little significant improvement because of a low area.Exurban urbanization expanded stably,there was no leap-style in the development.Urban expansion was in an axial spreading,the northeast developed fast than the southwest.In addition,the significant relationship showed with urban landscape ecology pattern and environmental effects.The higher fragmentation was in urban green infrastructure,the higher land surface temperature will be;the fragmentation will reduce the surface reflection,decreased the air transparency.The significant of correlation between the land surface temperature and the surface reflection confirmed that the increasing air pollution was due to the effect of land surface temperature increasing,while the feedback was that the lower air transparency would exacerbate land surface temperature.Thirdly,complex systems had an ability to resist external elements stimuli,and stable indicators made system changes.Some fasting changing indicators has no strong relationship with other indicators,means there were lower effect on complex system.The complex SESs has a strong adaptive ability to adapt the changing,while the effects of fasting changing indicators were not lasting.Compared with fasting changing indicators,the slow changing indicators has a long-lasting effect to the system,after the system absorbed and adapted these changes,the system also changed already.Fourthly,the structure of resilience was complex,the internal and external elements were worked together on the complex system.From the results,the influence of external elements was not significant,but it could not to be ignored because they wererelated with internal elements.Therefore,the external factors and internal elements are common to complex system changes.Through the linear dynamic analysis,the correlation between the factors were clarified.The main factors affecting the resilience of urban landscape pattern and ecological effect were green infrastructure density of population.Finally,I have made an intergrated idea of “pattern-process-effect-sustainability”.Applied the concept of resilience and spatial resilience into a case study.Provided a new research perspective of urban landscape pattern and effect in urbanized areas,and provide scientific evidence for urban environmental management. |
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