Effectiveness Of Selective Expected Management Decisions

One of the key factors of modern enterprise’s sustainable development is the high-quality decisions made by decision makers. One of the key factors of whether the decision makers can form high-quality decisions depends on the reasonableness of their decision expectations. Since the existence of decision making, decision expectation is always along with its emergence and development. With the development of modern economy, researchers begin to pay attention to and study the decision expectations. From the beginning of Marshall’s study, People gradually pay their attention to study this topic and form some simple theories on expectations. Cairns has made a systematic description on the significance of expectation in economic decision making and formed some related theories, which earns expectation a very important role in economic decision making process. Since then, people have made a series of researches to expectations and thus formed the rational expectation theory which has great influence on the modern decision making.After the analyses on the past expectation theories, the author finds that although scholars have studied the expectation theories from different perspectives and formed a series of related theories, they haven’t made systematic description and study on the factors which influence expectations and they don’t know which factors play important roles in the forming of expectation and on which problems they should focus their attention in the forming of decision making. From Marshall, Cairns to modern rational expectation theories, researchers have slid over the factors or simply boiled down to one or more factors and they haven’t made deep analyses, discussions or researches.Based on the present literature review and the analyses on the related behavior of decision makers’ expectation, the author concludes that expectations form in certain situations and the existence and development of expectation is a dynamic process. Therefore, the author puts forward the basic concepts on selective expectations and makes systematic analyses on their forming and influential factors. The author believes that the closer the selective expectations are to the rational expectations, the more reasonable they are. At the same time, the author thinks that the key factors which influence the selective expectations are situation, integration, speed, executive cognition and the reasonableness of the program. Then, the author puts forward seven hypotheses on the selective expectations. On the basis of these hypotheses and factors, the author has made a questionnaire and conducted surveys on senior managers in some enterprises. After putting survey data into computer and making empirical analyses on these data with the help of certain related computer software, the author finds that these hypotheses are the real key factors which influence the modern enterprise decision makers when they make decisions in reality.Breaking through the past theories, the author puts forwards the basic concepts of selective expectations, makes systematic analyses of forming and influential factors and suggests that the decision makers should pay special attention to these factors when they make their expectations. Only in this way can they make high quality decisions.